Alwaght- The Lebanese government on Thursday in a controversial move unanimously adopted the US-proposed plan for the so-called stabilization of the ceasefire. The plan, lacking Shiite cabinet members' support, seeks restriction of weapons in the hands of the Lebanese government, a move that is seen as a direct challenge to the weapons of the Hezbollah in the country.
According to the decision, the government tasked the army with preparing a comprehensive plan to restrict arms at its hands by the end of the year.
The decision is based on a US proposal presented by its special envoy, Thomas Barrack. The four-stage plan includes the adoption of a disarmament decision, a gradual Israeli withdrawal, and the destruction of Hezbollah’s heavy weapons in exchange for an international support package for Lebanon’s reconstruction.
After the cabinet meeting, Intelligence Minister Paul Murkus admitted that the contents of the cabinet resolution approved the premise of the American plan.
The premise reportedly includes 11 points under the title of “objectives,” the most prominent of which are “ensuring a lasting cessation of hostilities” between Lebanon and Israel and “a gradual end to the armed presence of all non-state actors, including Hezbollah, throughout Lebanese territory,” in addition to the deployment of the Lebanese army in border areas and key internal locations and the withdrawal of Israel from five points from which it has not withdrawn.
Government officials announced after the cabinet meeting that the process of implementing the resolution would begin quickly. "The process of confiscating weapons in the hands of official authorities has begun, according to a timetable," Lebanese Justice Minister Adel Nassar said on Friday in an X post.
Lebanese government submits to pressures
The policy of "restriction of the arms in the hands of the government", which has intensified in recent months after the President Joseph Aoun government came to power, is considered one of the most complex and prominent political developments in the country in recent years.
This is the first time in recent decades that the Council of Ministers has officially issued the army with a mandate to prepare a comprehensive plan for disarmament. For this reason, the Lebanese government is now in a sensitive position.
Some believe that the new government composition, formed based on the change in internal balances, has led to a more aggressive and bolder approach by the government towards sovereignty issues, but many emphasize the role of increasing external pressure from the US and some regional and European allies as the main factor, because this decision was made largely under the influence of external demands and not domestic interests, despite the awareness of the government, and especially Aoun, who is a former army commander and is more aware of the will of Hezbollah and its military weight than other Lebanese politicians, of all the challenges it could entail.
Hezbollah weapons the main obstacle to major American-Israeli plan for the region
Indeed, the crackdown on Hezbollah weapons in Lebanon should be seen within a broader plan and the US and Israeli policies against the Axis of Resistance in the region.
October 7 attack on Israel, known as Operation Al-Aqsa Storm by Hamas, and the developments that followed, especially the brutal Israeli invasion and genocide in Gaza which continues with the full support of the Americans, the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad government in Syria with the participation of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE and bringing to rule a former Al-Qaeda leader who is an opponent to the Axis of Resistance and a backer of Arab-Israeli normalization despite Syria once being a backbone of the anti-Israeli front, the Israeli-American war on Iran as the key supporter of the Resistance camp, and the attempt to disarm the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Iraq are all parts of this puzzle which servers, first, to change the security landscape of West Asia by ending Palestine and resistance issue, and ultimately change the geopolitical landscape of the region in favor of Israeli domination of the region.
In the meantime, Hezbollah’s weapons and the unity of the Axis of Resistance are the most important obstacles to the implementation of this plan, a plan that was not implemented due to the failure of military attacks on Lebanon, Iran, and Yemen. For this reason, this plan is now being pursued in its political phase and through pressure on the governments of Lebanon and Iraq.
Hezbollah, as well as home and regional backers, strongly oppose disarming
The deadline for implementing Hezbollah’s disarmament decree is less than six months, but among the main challenges is not time, but Hezbollah’s firm opposition, which is considered the main obstacle.
The Lebanese government’s decision has led to a swift response from Hezbollah, which interpreted it as a stab in the back and categorically rejected it.
Sheikh Naim Qassem, the resistance movement’s secretary-general, condemned the plan and stressed that Hezbollah will not make a deal to hand over its weapons until the Israeli regime withdraws from the occupied Lebanese territories.
“Anyone who now demands the surrender of our weapons is serving the Israeli project," he said.
He has repeatedly stressed that Hezbollah’s disarmament would undermine Lebanon’s defense against Israeli attacks. Hezbollah argues that these weapons are a means of deterrence and maintaining sovereignty against aggression, and their handover and destruction is unacceptable.
Most of the Shiite cabinet members affiliated with Hezbollah and the Amal Movement left the relevant government meetings, and at least two ministers from other groups who objected to the decision did not participate in the voting session, showing that this decision could not be considered sovereign.
Mahmoud Qamati, deputy head of Hezbollah’s Political Council, also stated bluntly: “We consider the American plan to disarm the resistance (Hezbollah) to be just ink on paper and we will never implement it. The Lebanese government’s decision was a coup against the national consensus.”
At the same time, large-scale protests were held in various regions of Lebanon in support of Hezbollah and condemnation of the government’s decision.
However, in addition to Hezbollah leaders and its popular supporters in Lebanon, other sides of the Axis of Resistance in the region have also declared their firm support for Hezbollah’s steadfastness against pressure.
Amid escalating regional tensions and domestic challenges, the issue of pressure on Hezbollah for its weapons has become one of the most important points of disagreement between Beirut and Tehran.
This came after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi asserted Iran's support to Hezbollah in its decisions and any decision on its weapons is exclusive to the resistance movement. He said that Iran backs Hezbollah "distantly" and without interference in the Lebanese internal affairs.
Meanwhile, the statement of Iraj Masjedi, deputy commander of the IRGC's Quds Force, drew much attention, as he highlighted the readiness of Iran and its allies for any possible scenario.
Major General Masjedi stated that “the weapons of resistance is the weapon of the Lebanese people to defend their land." He added: “No plan to disarm them, neither in the Lebanese Defense Council nor in any other arena, will succeed.”
Posing a big challenge to Lebanon's home and foreign security
While the region is in a state of chaos due to recent Israeli aggressions against the regional countries, many observers warn that the Lebanese government's decision amid the present regional tensions just serves to undermine and even destroy the country's deterrence against Israel.
Experts have warned of the risk of a potential security vacuum in the south and the Beqaa Valley, due to the Lebanese army’s limited capabilities to control the borders and the possibility of increased activity by extremist groups, especially from Syrian territory or an attack by the Israeli regime. Even if Hezbollah agrees to the disarmament plan, Israel has no intention to withdraw from Lebanese territory or stopping its attacks.
Political analysts have warned that implementing this policy, especially with Hezbollah’s fierce resistance, could lead Lebanon on a dangerous path towards internal unrest or even civil war.
This situation may even lead the country into chaos and another civil war by disrupting the historical power-sharing equation in Lebanon based on the Taif Agreement. Lebanon has a political system based on sectarian balance, and a split in one of the major groups, such as the Shiites, could shake the entire political structure. The Syrian experience is before the eyes of the Lebanese, where the country, after Bashar al-Assad, has lost its military power and deterrent power following the Israeli attacks and is now in a state of chaos and faces risk of partition.
Ali Haider, a political analyst, criticized the Lebanese government's submission to American orders in an interview with Aljazeera, saying that this decision prioritizes Israel's security over Lebanon's national interests.
Haider warns that if the government resorts to forced disarmament, we may approach "red lines," because Hezbollah considers weapons to be "the guarantor of Lebanon's security."
Haider called on the president to immediately start dialogue to prevent the worst-case scenarios. He stressed that Lebanon needs a national agreement to prevent internal collapse in this sensitive regional situation.
Therefore, it must be said that the discussion of Hezbollah's disarmament without mentioning the occupation and Israeli attacks is an unbalanced discussion. Hezbollah's weapons emerged in response to the occupation, and as long as the attacks continue, the reactions to enemy will continue.
The Taif Agreement explicitly speaks of the necessity of using military forces and popular resistance against the aggression of the Israeli regime, which means that the weapons of Hezbollah against the Israeli threats are completely legitimate and do not violate the agreement.
Hezbollah will not submit to the government decision and this will make the job hard for the Lebanese army and will naturally produce security tensions and could push the country to a civil war.
While Israel will certainly continue its attacks and the US guarantees are ineffective, disarming will only produce political gaps and pave the way for Israeli military occupation in Lebanon afresh.
