Alwaght- The historic turn the Israeli regime is passing through today is a signal of a crisis way deeper and more dangerous than what it is seeing in politics, society, and economy. What we are seeing is that Israel for the first time since its foundation eight decades ago has lost its capability to adapt to the transforming regional and international environment. What is on the surface is seen as a political instability or military confusion is in fact a reflection of a more deep-seated problem: Losing strategic equilibrium. In essence, the regime is experiencing a profound breakdown in its mindset, its institutional structure, its relationship with the world and the people of the region, and in its comprehension of its own true place within a new international order no longer defined by traditional power paradigms. The consequences are clear:
- Its political and security apparatus can no longer accurately perceive its environment.
- Its decision-making has lost all strategic logic.
- Ideological and religious coercion has replaced rational analysis.
- Its internal structure lacks the capacity for coherent, sustained planning.
This structural collapse is not merely a product of the Gaza war or the security failures of October 7. It is the culmination of a historical process that has boiled over in recent years, particularly with the rise of the extreme right, morphing the political system into a kind of "state within a state." The true nature of the Israeli regime, an artificial project and a reality imposed on West Asia region for decades, now stands exposed: the fragility of a colonial society, its foundational contradictions, and its transition from a phase of managing crises to a phase of manufacturing them.
Structural crisis that takes from the government the power to survive
Since 2022 and formation of government by the Likud party in association with religious Zionist parties, Israel began to show signs of structural collapse. For the first time, the political systems' fundamental institutions lost their transitional capability to manage the internal diversity between the secular and religious parties, between Ashkenazis and Easterners, and between liberal urban people and the settlers. The political and judicial mechanisms founded by Zionism failed to managed these gaps.
Operation Al-Aqsa Storm was not a causative factor, but a revealing factor. It exposed a regime that no longer possesses the minimum strategic equilibrium required for long-term decision-making. Its decision-making system crumbled, revealing that, according to Robert Jervis's theory of misperception in international relations, this regime has for years analyzed its environment based on profound misperceptions. A mindset pressured by Zionist ideology and religious beliefs has constructed a self-serving fantasy about itself and its enemies.
This perceptual disorder is not a temporary phenomenon; it has been a defining feature of 'Israel's' policy over the past decade: a constant inflation of its own capabilities, a systematic dismissal of the power of regional nations, and a belief in the myth of 'military supremacy' that can allegedly be restored through more violence. This mindset, which resembles myth more than analysis, has created the most dangerous possible condition: the loss of its strategic compass.
Difference between losing balance of power and losing strategic equilibrium
There is a fundamental difference between a "loss of strategic balance", referring to a disruption of external power dynamics, and a "loss of strategic equilibrium," which stems from a state's internal structural dysfunction. Balance can be restored through alliances, technology, and weaponry. Equilibrium, however, can only be revived through the complete reconstruction of a state's foundational pillars.
The Zionist regime has lost the capacity to recover either its internal or external equilibrium. The problem is not a shortage of arms or a failure of deterrence; the issue lies in the political structure and the mindset that makes its decisions.
This is why the current crisis represents the most dangerous moment in this regime's history: it is now the "regime" itself that is making the errors that are dismantling its own foundations
A mentality incapable of understanding the reality
The Zionist manifesto was built on three pillars: An imagined moral superiority, an assumed military supremacy, a mythical civilizational dominance
Yet, over the past two years, all three pillars have crumbled. The myth of 'Israeli democracy' has cracked, the image of 'the region's most powerful army' has shattered, and the narrative of a 'civilized state carrying values' has collapsed.
Rather than confront this unraveling, the Zionist regime has accelerated toward further extremism: policy has turned to vengeance, its sickly dependence on American support has deepened, and extreme religion has become the decisive factor in its decision-making, decisions now based not on strategic calculation, but on religious prophecies and the apocalyptic mindset of its settlers.
This pattern of decision-making resembles a 'flight of power into delusion': as a declining power's order disintegrates, it clings to absolute ideological beliefs and begins generating a cascade of crises from within. Assertions like "This land is solely ours because of a divine promise," "Military might is always the solution," or "We are inherently right, and others are inherently wrong" have become its guiding mantras.
Signs of structural decline and an inability to adapt to the environment
We can enumerate the signs of Israeli structural collapse in eight main points
1. The collapse of the social contract between religious and secular factions. The crisis over military conscription; the withdrawal of Haredi parties from the government are its examples.
2. A leadership vacuum between the army, government, Shin Bet, and judiciary, triggering a wave of resignations.
3. The conflict between ideological expansionism and the need for stability, to the point where occupation has become an existential obstacle for the regime itself.
4. The collapse of domestic trust in the army and government, and a severe loss of legitimacy.
5. A complete failure of deterrence, resorting to killing and destruction, a classic symptom of strategic bankruptcy.
6. Overextension across up to seven military fronts, a historically proven path leading to downfall of empires.
7. Catastrophic intelligence failures regarding Hamas and other resistance movements, exposing the security establishment’s dysfunctional cognitive framework.
8. The global collapse of "Israel's" image, transforming it into a regime mired in moral and legal isolation.
These signs confirm that the regime has lost the ability to adapt to an environment where the enemy cannot be subdued by force alone, and to a multipolar world where American influence is waning.
Resistance, the structural factor weakening the Israeli regime
The Axis of Resistance, and mainly the Palestinian resistance groups on top of them Hamas, is no longer a security threat; it is a fundamental actor in shifting global power balance.
Hamas’s attack on October 7 forced thd Israelis to quit strategic planning and enter into a cycle of permanent power erosion. The resistance disclosed the true limits of the modern military power: In the face of the firm resolution and de-centralized combat networks, the technological superiority was neutralized.
The Resistance camp has effectively demolished the myth of the "invincible army" of the Israeli regime, shattered the internal balance of Zionist society, laid bare the fragility of its domestic front, and forced the US as staunch backer of the regime into the humiliating position of seeking an exit strategy to salvage what remains of its ally's credibility.
Trump's initiative: Temporary rescue or delaying collapse?
When the US President Donald Trump intervened with his "the day after Gaza" initiative, he actually moved to save the Israeli regime from political suicide. This regime is actually a sunken in its wrong decisions; incapable of continuing the war or ending it.
Trump's proposal offered a temporary reprieve, but it did not repair the collapsing structure. It delayed the implosion; it did not stop it. Because the problem is not Gaza. The problem lies in the political mentality and social structure that produce a religious right-wing government and a regime that understands only the language of force, believes solely in domination, and rejects any form of equal coexistence.
Conclusion
The Israeli regime has transformed into an entity that has lost the capacity to adapt to a transforming global order, to an indomitable region, and to a Resistance camp that grows unceasingly. This structural collapse is not an incident, but a trajectory; not a crisis, but a condition; not a temporary malfunction, but the regime's new political identity.
The short-term propaganda about victory through portraying destruction of Gaza is just a short pause in a long path of collapse. The regime is still clinging to a military that only knows the language of force, but in the most important moments, it does not understand the shifting world around it, and when a regime loses its power to adapt, time itself becomes its fatal enemy.
