Alwaght- Though the Israeli regime over the past years has shown it commits to no agreement and predominantly advances its plans using military force, the interim Syrian government led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, officially called Ahmad al-Sharaa, that is desperate in the face of the Israeli attacks has once again chosen diplomacy to end the Israeli warmongering. After several rounds of secret talks, a new round is held.
In this regard, Israel's Channel 12 reported, citing Israeli sources, that senior Syrian and Israeli officials met in Paris on Monday to discuss a security pact. The talks, continuing for two days, are also attended by special American envoy to Syria Tom Barrack and Syrian Foreign Minister Assad al-Shaybani.
AFP reported that this meeting comes as a result of Trump administration's pressures on Israel and Syria for a deal that will stabilize the situation on the shared borders and will possibly mark the first step in broader normalization agreement in the future, something seen as unrealistic given the broad gap between expectations and goals of the two sides.
Talks background
The first signs of efforts to reach a security agreement between Damascus and Tel Aviv emerged last June. Syrian and Hebrew media reported and confirmed the start of talks under the framework of the 1974 ceasefire agreement, noting that direct contacts had been established between the two sides. The first official round of negotiations was held in Baku, where during his visit to Azerbaijan, al-Jolani held confidential talks with an Israeli delegation. By August, reports indicated negotiations had entered a more advanced stage, with Syrian officials also speaking of progress. A subsequent round of talks was again held in Baku last September.
The last session between the two sides took place about two months ago. However, serious disagreements between the parties, coupled with the resignation of Ron Dermer, Tel Aviv's former chief negotiator, brought the process to a halt. Therefore, the Paris meeting is considered the fifth round of negotiations.
Given the Israeli insistence on not withdrawing from areas occupied after the fall of Bashar al-Assad's government in December 2024, little progress was reported in past talks, and efforts to resolve disputes have so far been unsuccessful. Nevertheless, some media outlets, citing unofficial sources, have raised the possibility of a breakthrough in this latest round.
Axios reported that in this round, Israel has put forward a proposal that includes establishing secure buffer zones in southwestern Damascus and enforcing a no-fly zone for Syrian aircraft near the border. In exchange, Zionist forces would withdraw from recently entered Syrian territories while maintaining a strategic presence in specific locations, such as Jabal Al-Sheikh (Mount Hermon).
Israeli aims behind signing security pact with Syria
The Israeli motivations behind entering a negotiation process with Syria for a security pact are four major ones aimed at managing peripheral threats and redefining the balance of power with Syria after fall of Bashar al-Assad.
For decades, Syria stood as a central pillar of the Axis of Resistance, having developed multifaceted capabilities that posed a serious and persistent threat to the occupied territories. Consequently, with the collapse of the Bashar al-Assad government, Tel Aviv views this juncture as a rare opportunity to fundamentally weaken Syria's position of resistance by capitalizing on the new realities. To this end, Netanyahu's cabinet is striving to minimize Syria's deterrent role by imposing targeted constraints on Damascus's military, intelligence, and field capabilities. The proposed security agreement is, therefore, a tool to impose binding commitments on Syria's interim government to effectively block any path toward rebuilding its defensive capacities, reintegrating the spirit of resistance into the Syrian national fabric and political structure, or the emergence of a powerful, sovereign Syria with unified territorial control.
Securing complete dominance over Syrian airspace is a key objective that Netanyahu is vigorously pursuing. In recent years, exploiting the unique conditions created by Syria's internal crisis, the Israeli air force has implemented an "open skies" policy, carrying out offensive operations deep into Syrian territory and using the country's airspace as an aerial corridor to access other regions. A security agreement could formally cement this superiority and impose severe restrictions on Damascus's air defense systems, thereby preserving Tel Aviv's freedom of action for aerial operations. This air dominance serves not only as a vital tool for political pressure and intelligence gathering but also enables preemptive strikes. Furthermore, as tensions between Iran and the Israeli regime escalate, Netanyahu's cabinet aims to ensure it can readily use Syrian airspace for operations against Iranian targets in the event of any potential confrontation, thereby maintaining its strategic advantage in the region.
Also, dominance over Golan Heights and other southern Syria regions is one of strategic aims of Tel Aviv. Israeli officials have repeatedly asserted southern Syria should be de-militerized. Even recently, the Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz said that Tel Aviv will not retreat from occupied Syrian territories "even a millimeter." Therefore, Netanyahu's cabinet is attempting to leverage the security negotiations to transform the current status of the occupied territories into an "established fact," thereby neutralizing any future claims by Damascus to reclaim these lands.
Furthermore, Israeli engagement in talks with Syria to put up a diplomatic face is a strategic instrument helping ease international pressures and criticism, especially coming from Arab countries. At the same time with political negotiations, the Israeli regime can justify its actions in Syria as a "security necessity" and so legitimize its actions through talks.
Curbing Turkey's influence and limiting its military activities in Syria are also considered strategic objectives for Tel Aviv. Tel Aviv has serious concerns about Ankara's expanding foothold in Syria. Tel Aviv has previously demonstrated, through targeted attacks on Turkish positions, that it does not tolerate presence of Turks near the occupied territories and aims to prevent the establishment or expansion of Turkish military bases on Syrian soil. Therefore, in the view of Netanyahu's government, a security agreement with Damascus should serve as a key tool to restrict Turkey's freedom of action and preserve the regime's dominance in the Syrian equation.
Dark outlook of a security pact
Despite US diplomatic efforts to steer Tel Aviv toward signing a security agreement with al-Jolani, statements from prominent figures within the Israeli cabinet suggest these efforts are unlikely to yield tangible and lasting results. While Tel Aviv may be able to impose its demands on al-Jolani's government at the negotiating table and secure desired concessions, Netanyahu and his allies continue to view Syria's new government as a potential and unreliable threat to any lasting accord. This perception persists even ignoring the vast geopolitical distance between Tel Aviv's strategy and the al-Jolani government's vision for Syria's future and its political structure.
Several months ago, the Israeli PM emphasized that Tel Aviv would never allow Syria's new rulers to establish themselves in southern Damascus. He also strongly condemned Jolani's behavior after returning from the White House, stating that al-Jolani has returned from Washington arrogant, and has begun taking actions we do not accept."
Earlier, Katz had also declared that Tel Aviv does not trust al-Jolani and that they monitor him daily from the heights of Jabal Al-Sheikh (Mount Hermon). Given these blunt statements from Israel officials, one cannot take comfort in Tel Aviv's seemingly diplomatic maneuvers. Any potential agreements will likely be confined to pressure tactics and managing the developments in Israel's favor.
Israel's main goal is establishing a weak and partitioned Syria next to the occupied Palestinian borders, as in the absence of a powerful government in Damascus, Tel Aviv can advance its occupational and expansionist plans. So, targeted support to the minorities in Syria like the Kurds and Druze are not driven by humanitarian causes but by an aim to deepen internal gaps and strengthening rival actors to Damascus. This purposeful policy, through inflaming insecurity in Syria, gives the Israelis the proper ground to continue their security and military interventions and so tip the scales in favor of Tel Aviv.
Another prominent issue in Tel Aviv's calculations is the Netanyahu government's view of al-Jolani as a weak and unqualified figure for governing Syria. From the perspective of the Israeli officials, although al-Jolani has assumed the presidency of Syria, he lacks genuine legitimacy, whether among the general public, at the regional and international levels, or even among armed groups. Therefore, he is not considered a credible representative for signing strategic and security agreements.
Moreover, al-Jolani's political dependence on actors such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia has heightened Tel Aviv's concerns. For this reason, Netanyahu has effectively refrained from recognizing him and is unwilling to engage in fateful negotiations with a government he deems lacking in independence and authority.
Overall, given the experience of Israeli violation of ceasefire agreements in Gaza and Lebanon, a possible outlook for an agreement looks dark since Netanyahu’s strategy in the region rests on a policy of expansionism, and so even if a deal is signed, Israeli attacks on Syria will not stop and the deal actually will serve as a justification for continuing its aggressive policies.
