Alwaght- About three weeks after Iraqi foreign minister's Ankara visit, his Turkish counterpart made a visit to Baghdad on Sunday, signaling cozying up relations between the two neighbors.
Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan held bilateral meetings with senior Iraqi officials during his visit, discussing bilateral relations and recent regional developments.
According to Iraqi sources, the top Turkish diplomat expressed his country’s appreciation for the rapid development of bilateral ties at all levels and the increase in high-level contacts between the two nations. He also reaffirmed Turkey’s support for steps aimed at enhancing stability, security, and prosperity in Iraq.
Iraq remains one of Turkey’s most important trade partners in 2025, with bilateral trade reaching approximately $12 billion by September. Turkish exports to Iraq totaled $8.675 billion during this period, while Iraqi exports to Turkey amounted to $3.231 billion.
The visit follows Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s trip to Iraq last year, which resulted in the signing of 27 agreements and memoranda of understanding in the fields of security, trade, transboundary waters, agriculture, culture, and transportation.
Earlier, on May 8, 2025, during Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s official visit to Turkey, the two countries held the sixth meeting of the High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council and signed 11 documents, marking another significant step in less than seven months.
Water, the top agenda of two countries
A senior Iraqi foreign ministry official confirmed that the severe water crisis dominating Iraq was the central focus during the visit by Turkey’s Fidan. Iraq is grappling with a devastating water shortage, and its strategic water reserves are plummeting. The heart of the dispute lies in Turkey’s upstream damming of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, specifically its massive Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP). While Foreign Minister Fidan assured Iraqi officials that Turkey approaches the transboundary water issue from a "humanitarian perspective" and sees it as an area for cooperation, his remarks have done little to quell the widespread criticism in Iraq.
For nearly two months, Iraq has faced a dire water situation. The core grievance is that Turkey has reduced Iraq's agreed-upon water quota from the two great rivers, sparking intense domestic backlash.
Turehan al-Mufti, a water advisor to the Iraqi government, expressed hope that Turkey would release an additional billion cubic meters of water to Iraq following the diplomatic meetings. Speaking to New Arab, al-Mufti outlined the complex challenges, stating, “Iraq faces complex water challenges from both internal and external factors.” He explained that Iraq ranks among the top 15 countries most vulnerable to climate change, which has slashed rainfall in the Tigris and Euphrates basins by up to 60 percent.
In a concrete step, Iraq and Turkey signed an executive mechanism for a broader framework water cooperation agreement on Sunday. The deal paves the way for joint projects, including the construction of new dams and lakes, and mandates a comprehensive study of Iraq’s water resources.
This crisis is not new. Four months ago, Khaled Shamal, spokesperson for Iraq’s Water Resources Ministry, told CNN that four consecutive years of drastically reduced river flows, rainfall, and snowpack had “paralyzed the country's reserves.” He warned at the time, “Iraq is in a critical situation regarding its water reserves.”
Shamal highlighted Iraq’s extreme vulnerability as a downstream nation, revealing that the country receives less than 40 percent of its legal water share. He noted that 70 percent of Iraq’s water resources originate in neighboring countries, with Turkey alone supplying 50 percent , Iran 15 percent, and Syria 5 percent.
Despite the agreements on water, some political experts suggest that Turkey ties the water issue to Iraq's oil. Turkish companies, financed by Iraqi oil revenues, manage the country's water resources and in return Ankara promises to allow further water flow to Iraq. But increase in Iraqi share takes place under the supervision of Turkey.
PKK issue
Reports indicate that the threat of PKK terrorism was the second key issue dominating discussions between Turkish and Iraqi officials. The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) terrorist group represents not just a security crisis for Turkey, but a regional destabilizing factor affecting Iran, Iraq, and Syria. Over many years, this conflict has evolved into a chronic regional challenge, inflicting widespread devastation across northern Iraq and Turkey's border regions. The human cost has been tragic: tens of thousands killed and hundreds of thousands displaced in the cycle of PKK operations and subsequent Turkish airstrikes in northern Iraq. While precise casualty figures remain unclear, these cross-border military operations have unquestionably extracted a heavy toll in Iraqi lives and property.
The PKK's presence has fueled a cascade of secondary crises—chronic instability, insecurity, stunted development, poverty, poor education, sprawling slums, and general lawlessness have become hallmarks of the mountainous northern Iraqi regions where the group operates.
Following the recent agreement during the Turkish FM visit, Iraq's FM Fuad Hussein expressed strong support for dialogue between Turkey and the PKK, stating: "We look forward to see a successful agreement between them and the emergence of tangible solutions that achieve security in a manner satisfactory to all parties."
Turkish emphasis on a challenging plan
According to Iraqi sources, Fidan in his meetings with Iraqi officials stressed that Turkish is a natural partner to the "Development Route", an international corridor project aimed at connecting the Persian Gulf to Europe via a network of highways and railways in Iraq.
A joint project involving Turkey, Qatar, and the UAE is underway to transform Iraq into a major transit hub and provide an alternative to current trade routes. The plan involves constructing a 1,200-kilometer transportation network from Iraq's Al-Faw Port to the Turkish border.
While Turkey views itself as a natural partner in this initiative, the Development Road project faces significant implementation challenges. Primary obstacles include financial constraints in covering the project's substantial costs, ongoing security and political instability in Iraq, internal political divisions, and inadequate infrastructure along the route. Additionally, regional geopolitical competition and potential opposition from internal groups like the Kurdistan region represent further barriers to the project's successful realization.
Financing this massive project remains one of its greatest challenges. The reliance of Iraq and involved countries on oil revenues and fluctuating oil prices could impact their ability to fund the project and maintain its economic stability. Political disagreements among various parties and groups, including differing stances from Erbil officials, present another serious obstacle to advancing the project. The Kurdistan government worries that the Development Road passing through Nineveh would reduce the economic benefits of transit routes passing through Erbil. The Kurds also fear the project's implementation would diminish the autonomous region's role and importance in energy security and international transportation routes. Meanwhile, routing the Development Road through Nineveh instead of the Kurdistan region has been described as more cost-effective and time-efficient for Iraq's central government.
Furthermore, inadequate infrastructure in 10 provinces of Iraq from which the route passes require heavy and time-taking investments and it is unlikely that Iraq at least in the near future can upgrade their infrastructures to an average status. It also should be taken into account that there are flourishing rival projects in the region like China’s Road and Belt Initiative, India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), or the corridor routes crossing Iran.
Turks' electoral aspirations
On the other hand, it must be considered that Fidan's visit to Baghdad, taking place amid the competition of Iraq's parliamentary elections, underscores the importance of this event for Ankara and is perhaps the most critical case for the visiting Turkish delegation. Turkey has undertaken clear actions regarding interference in Iraq's elections and is openly supporting the Turkmen Front and certain Iraqi Sunni forces and parties. In recent years, Turkey has significantly increased its interventions in Iraq's internal affairs, particularly through its illegal military presence in vast areas of the country's north. It now seeks to convert this military presence into strategic influence within Iraq. Supporting Turkmen and Sunni factions may be the primary method for executing this plan. Fidan, himself rising to his post from intelligence apparatus, earlier was responsible for the case of the Sunnis of Iraq in Turkey's intelligence agency, MIT, and now it seems that Ankara is seeking to undertake a role of political authority as a regional backer of the Sunnis.
