Alwaght- On Sunday, the Israeli fighter jets in an aggression launched an attack on the Lebanese capital Beirut, assassinating senior Hezbollah commander Haitham Ali Tabatabaei and four other members of the resistance movement. The repeated Israeli crimes that are going on under the international, especially the UN Security Council, silence have triggered public fury across Lebanon.
Since the November 2024 ceasefire, Tel Aviv has repeatedly violated the truce deal launching daily attacks on southern Beirut and rejecting to withdraw from five points in the south it occupied since its land incursion.
Meanwhile, the recent attack caught by surprise even the optimistic political observers who argued the Israeli regime will delay its aggression until Pope Leo XIV will visit Lebanon next month.
The Israeli regime has decided to abandon its doctrine of "calculated tension" and carried out a targeted assassination. The move signals that Tel Aviv is pursuing its own agenda entirely separate from international mediators, the Pope's appeals, and even pressure from Washington and the Lebanese government aimed at curbing Hezbollah's capabilities.
Through this operation, Israel demonstrated it will not wait for diplomatic statements or negotiation outcomes, and is prepared to take the most dangerous steps right up to Hezbollah's red lines. This violation of expectations is an attempt to impose a new reality on the northern front, and potentially across all of Lebanon, before Washington, the Vatican, or other internal and external initiatives can impose any constraints.
In the months since the ceasefire, Hezbollah has pursued a policy of restraint against the regime's provocative actions, deliberately avoiding escalation. But now, this "calculated and theatrical madness" from the Israeli side has triggered a wave of fury and calls for retaliatory action within Lebanon. This wave appears to have resonated at the strategic decision-making level of Hezbollah, as reflected in Sunday's statement by Deputy Head of the Hezbollah's Political Council Mahmoud Qmati, who described martyr Tabatabai as "a key resistance figure" and confirmed that the movement's leadership is reviewing how to respond.
Consequently, the situation may not revert to the old status quo. As Amatzia Baram, an Israeli expert at the University of Haifa, told Maariv newspaper: "The main question now preoccupying policymakers is: How will Hezbollah respond?"
Hezbollah and two options: Strategy change or tactic change?
Following the martyrdom of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Sayyed Hashem Safieddine, and several of its senior commanders during the 66-day war, Hezbollah, despite its success in safeguarding Lebanon's territorial integrity and blocking the repetition of the Israeli army's advance scenarios seen in Syria, strategically recalibrated its position. To rebuild its damaged military capabilities and combat organization, and to break the political deadlock hindering the reconstruction of devastated areas, the movement stepped back from its dominant role in the government formation process. This tactical retreat allowed it to refocus on core strategic objectives: preserving its weapons, enhancing its defensive capabilities, and rebuilding its military and institutional structures based on the lessons learned from the latest war.
This issue that made up Hezbollah's main strategy over the past months has rattled the American and Israeli officials, to an extent that Washington and Tel Aviv through frequent attacks and violation of the ceasefire sought to obstruct this strategy.
Tel Aviv leaders admit that in recent months, despite daily attacks on Lebanon, Hezbollah has managed to strengthen its ranks and rebuild its combat power.
Yoav Zitun, a military analyst for the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth, reported that senior officers say that Israel's near-daily attacks have not prevented Hezbollah from strengthening militarily, especially in villages far from the border.
Netanyahu, even after the recent assassination, pointed to the threat of Hezbollah rebuilding its capabilities as the most significant danger, stating he "will not allow any threat from Hezbollah or the reconstruction of its forces."
This makes it clear that the core strategic goal of the Israeli-American attacks on Lebanon is to prevent the rebuilding of Hezbollah's power and to keep the purported process of disarming of Hezbollah stalled in Lebanon's internal political affairs. While Lebanese President Joseph Aoun recently declared on the country's 82nd Independence Day that the army is prepared to take over positions in the south and engage in negotiations, Tel Aviv's latest assassination in the heart of the capital is meant to send a message: it does not recognize the Lebanese government and army as a legitimate party for negotiating security arrangements. This is a message aimed at inflaming an atmosphere of tension and internal division.
By attacking Hezbollah, Israeli regime also puts in a tight spot the Lebanese government as the political governance authority of the country, declaring that procrastination about Hezbollah disarming and the chronic lack of control over borders and crossings are the main drivers for Tel Aviv attacks.
Netanyahu, in his message, insisted: "I expect the Lebanese government to act and fulfill its obligations." In doing so, Tel Aviv is ratcheting up political pressure on the Lebanese government to intensify its push for Hezbollah's disarmament.
The second critical factor is that Hezbollah, despite its justified fury over the assassination of its commanders, is acutely aware that entering a new full-scale war under current conditions could come at the cost of Lebanon's total economic and social collapse. The country, already grappling with one of the worst economic crises in its history, a collapse of public services, and deep political fractures, lacks the capacity to withstand another round of widespread devastation. Therefore, any decision on a retaliatory response must be taken with a careful calculation of this staggering cost and the risk of pushing Lebanon past a point of no return.
A third element in Hezbollah's calculations is the refusal to play into the political narrative preferred by Benjamin Netanyahu, for whom warmongering is a political survival strategy. This recent attack must also be analyzed within the context of the deep domestic crisis facing Netanyahu. To escape a perfect storm of corruption trials, public criticism over his government's failures on October 7th, and growing discontent from his far-right allies over accepting a Gaza ceasefire without Hamas's disarmament, he has resorted to his perennial tactic of creating new external crises. By redirecting attention to a northern front threat, he hopes to rebuild a fragile internal unity around security and silence his critics within his own cabinet and the Israeli public. Consequently, this aggression is not merely an act against Hezbollah, but a calculated move to extend the political life of a besieged leader.
The last issue is the enemy's confusion and uncertainty about the degree of Hezbollah's military power rebuilding. One of the main aims of Hezbollah over the past months has been to maintain maximum ambiguity and surprise about the true degree of its military and missile power rebuilding. This strategy helps keep the Israeli enemy in the dark, preventing it from knowing whether Hezbollah has the capacity for a full-scale war. The assassination of senior commanders, including Tabatabaei, is part of the Israeli regime's effort to pierce this veil of ambiguity and make a more precise assessment of Hezbollah's current strength. Hezbollah's response to this assassination, regardless of its scale, will reveal vital information about the new scale of its combat capabilities and its readiness level. This in itself is a critical strategic game for both sides.
So, given these considerations, Hezbollah's probable response will be a tactical choice, one that navigates the edge of its core strategy focused on reconstruction and managing domestic developments with the state and army. As Qmati said, this attack is a new violation of red lines, promising Hezbollah's commitment to full coordination with the government and army. He asserted that the duty of the army, people, and Hezbollah is to work for halt of these attacks.
