Alwaght- In recent weeks, the level of Israeli threats against Lebanon has unprecedentedly increased. Simultaneously, recurrent airstrikes on various parts of the southern Lebanon have led to martyrdom and injury of a number of innocent civilians and inflicted massive material damages on public and private assets, causing a situation that in terms of size and impact are not less than a limited war and signaling entry to a stage in which Tel Aviv is trying to impose a new equation on Beirut using military force.
A critical question presents itself here: what are the Israeli regime's true objectives in threatening war or launching a new military operation against Lebanon? And why are Tel Aviv's leaders, despite an army exhausted by the prolonged Gaza conflict, their failure to achieve initial war aims, and a profound crisis of trust among Israelis toward their military and political leaders, still willing to roll the dice on such a high-stakes gamble?
Simultaneously, a second crucial issue should be considered: the political conduct of certain factions within Lebanon's government and establishment. By bowing to American and Israeli pressure, whether by design or by default, they have cultivated a political atmosphere that Tel Aviv interprets as a sign of Lebanon's internal front weakening. This climate includes pressuring Hezbollah to disarm, stoking public fear of war, and driving a wedge between the resistance and the national army. It is precisely this fragmentation that the Israelis believe could pave the way for their potential success.
Israeli aims behind potential war on Lebanon
1. Pressuring Hezbollah to accept new equations
Tel Aviv leaders think that the current regional conditions can give them an opportunity to impose new restrictions on Hezbollah to force it into strategic retreats which are mainly aimed at curtailing its deterrence and offensive power. In fact, they find this period the most proper one to advance plans they raised years ago under various demands and resolutions but failed to realize.
Within this framework, Tel Aviv's central aim is to curtail Hezbollah's missile and drone capabilities and pressure the resistance movement into accepting proposals such as pushing its fighters north of the Litani River, thereby transforming southern Lebanon into a zone with a minimal Hezbollah presence.
The Israeli regime is also seeking to establish a "secure buffer zone" deep inside Lebanese territory, an area that, according to Tel Aviv officials, would guarantee the security of settlers in the northern occupied territories and essentially create a geographical shield against the indestructible capacity of the resistance forces. This series of pressures forms part of Israel's broader strategy to redefine the balance of power on its northern borders and impose its own preferred security order on Lebanon.
Tel Aviv operates under the assumption that threatening a full-scale war or executing a limited military operation could tip the scales in its favor.
2. Blocking Hezbollah military upgrade after Gaza war
Two years of relentless war in Gaza have cemented a belief within Israeli security circles that if a resistance movement under full siege, constant bombardment, and military occupation can still reconstitute its fighting capabilities and preserve the core of its military power, then Hezbollah, operating from a far stronger position, could regain and even surpass its former strength in a fraction of the time. The result would be a deterrent equation for the occupied territories far more dangerous than the one that existed prior to the Gaza war.
Current reports already indicate that Hezbollah has upgraded its missile and logistical systems, enhanced its drone capabilities, and regenerated its elite forces and combat structure.
This reality has triggered profound alarm among Israel's military leadership, fueling a conviction that if they do not go to war now, the cost of a future confrontation will be way higher.
3. Struggling to restore lost deterrence
A new war on Lebanon like other warmongerings against Iran, Qatar, and Yemem is driven by a key aim: Trying to rebuild Tel Aviv’s deterrence that collapsed after Hamas’s Operation Al-Aqsa Storm of October 7, as the Israeli officials admit. That is why an attack on the "stronger enemy", namely Hezbollah, would provide a room to rebuild the picture of Israeli army power, prove Israeli military superiority over other regional nations, and win the approval of the home public who see their future uncertain and shaky.
4. Escaping domestic crisis
The Israeli regime is grappling with profound internal division, a crisis of legitimacy, widespread protests, and a collapse of public trust. With the war halted and a ceasefire accepted in Gaza, Netanyahu's political standing is once again under pressure from critics both inside and outside his cabinet. His radical allies accuse him of succumbing to American pressure, thereby preventing the full execution of planned objectives for the complete disarmament of Gaza, the destruction of Hamas, and the continued military presence of Israeli forces in the strip. Meanwhile, external opponents are once again levelling accusations of corruption and evading responsibility for the events of October 7. In these circumstances, launching a new war could serve as a political escape hatch for him. From his perspective, it is a convenient tool to forge a unified Israeli society in the face of an external threat.
Capitalizing on political gaps: Israel watching Lebanon's internal conditions
Tel Aviv is closely watching the Lebanese developments, where growing gaps between the pro-resistance groups and pro-American factions have more than ever divided Lebanon's political structure.
From the viewpoint of the regime's leaders, a segment of Lebanon's political class, instead of confronting the Israeli regime's escalating threats, considers pressuring Hezbollah to be the primary solution. This very approach projects an image of a weak, fragmented, and incoherent country in the face of a potential war. Israel interprets these divisions as a direct sign of the weakening political and social support for Hezbollah within Lebanon and believes that the Lebanese domestic front will not be united or coordinated against a major threat.
Alongside this perception, the official and public policies of certain Lebanese state institutions are, from the regime's view, are aligned with Tel Aviv's objectives. The emphasis by some Lebanese officials on curtailing the resistance's role, stoking public fear of war, and attempting to place the responsibility for tensions on Hezbollah's shoulders all send a single message to Tel Aviv: Lebanon is not united behind Hezbollah and other resistance factions. For this reason, Israel sees this situation as a kind of green light for military action and assumes that in the event of war, it would not face a unified national front.
Amidst this, the Israeli regime's assessment of the Lebanese army's condition is also profoundly negative. The economic crisis, reduced defense budget, and internal divisions have led Tel Aviv to view the Lebanese army as incapable of playing an effective role in a full-scale war. It operates on the belief that should war break out, it would only face Hezbollah, not the unified defensive power of Lebanon as a whole.
A complex of these conditions and wrong and costly actions have made part of the Lebanese government a key factor facilitating potential Israeli aggression.
The political maneuvers by US-aligned factions to persistently push for the Hezbollah's disarmament, precisely at a time the Israeli cabinet openly threatens war, effectively legitimizes Tel Aviv's threats and undermines the nation's defensive posture. This climate not only deepens internal divisions but also sends a critically misguided message to the enemy that Lebanon lacks defensive unity and is unprepared to confront external threats. It is this very dangerous signal that could embolden Israel to embark on a reckless military adventure.
Pushing for the disarmament of Hezbollah at the very moment Netanyahu publicly threatens war is a political gift to Tel Aviv. It fosters the illusion within Israel that Hezbollah is under pressure even within its own country.
Hezbollah's positions and its level of readiness
The stances of Hezbollah have shown that this resistance movement not only is not moving to decline, but also preparing itself for any Israeli aggression.
In all of its official statements and standings, Hezbollah stresses on the point that it is fully ready for any scenario of military confrontation and response to any Israeli attacks will be multi-layer, massive, and exceeding the Israeli calculation. These are not just a reaction to the Israeli threats, but are part of an active deterrence strategy aiming to tell the Israelis that the costs of any military adventure against Lebanon will be high.
However, the responsibility for preventing the war does not lie with just Hezbollah. Rather, the Lebanese government should opt out of playing in the Trump and Netanyahu's court and adopt a national, united, and resistant approach, one that would send a clear message to Tel Aviv that Lebanon is united and ready to defend itself.
