Alwaght- Tensions have reached their peak recently in the Caribbean Sea off Venezuela coast. On side of the confrontation is the US and the other is Venezuela. Since the Cuba missile crisis of 1962, such amassment of forces and naval ships in the Caribbean by the US has been unprecedented. Now about 6,500 marines are deployed using 8 ships and also 3,500 others are positioned off Venezuelan coast. With the arrival of USS Gerard R. Ford, the US has now deployed a naval force in the Caribbean, near Venezuela's coastline, that is nearly equal in size to the fleet it sent to the Mediterranean and West Asia to defend Israel from Iranian missile attacks this past summer.
An International Crisis Group report indicates the US has now deployed 8 percent of its entire warship fleet to the Caribbean. Since three months ago, Washington has also stationed a significant number of guided-missile destroyers, F-35 fighter jets, MQ-9 Reaper drones, an amphibious ready-group (with 4,500 personnel, including some 2,200 Marines), a nuclear-powered submarine, and a specialized expeditionary sea base in the region. The US military has also flown three B-52 strategic bombers through the Caribbean.
Concurrent with this volume of military assets being positioned in the Caribbean, President Trump has ordered his special envoy, Richard Grenell, to end all diplomatic engagement with Caracas. The Trump administration has also issued a authorization that permits the CIA to conduct covert actions in Venezuela, including lethal operations. This authorization to the spy agency has been formally confirmed by Trump himself.
Fighting drugs or toppling Maduro?
Though the US says the massive deployment of forces is meant to fight drugs cartels, such a large-scale military deployment is sufficient to wage a war against Venezuela to topple its government.
By building up the military presence in the Caribbean, the tone of the US government against Venezuelan President has alsoy grown more aggressive. Though the White House describes the mission as against drugs trafficking, analysts argue that this volume of military hardware are meant for operations aimed at ousting the Venezuelan government.
Elliott Abrams, who served as the US special envoy for Venezuela during Trump's first term, told The Atlantic that the announced US anti-drug mission is, in fact, "a pressure campaign for the collapse of the Maduro regime."
Furthermore, choosing the Caribbean as the staging ground for a naval campaign against drug transit exposes the true purpose of the massive US military buildup. This is about far more than stopping low-level traffickers at sea or intercepting fentanyl. Nearly all fentanyl entering the US is produced in Mexico, and according to US Customs and Border Protection, 94 percent of seized narcotics are intercepted at the southern land border not at sea.
It is also critical to have in mind that Venezuela, as a cocaine-producing nation, sends the majority of its product to Europe, with only a tiny fraction being smuggled into the US. In reality, the cocaine consumed in the US arrives primarily via the Pacific Ocean and through Mexico, not Venezuela. This makes Washington's targeting of Caracas in the name of fighting narcotics a deeply disingenuous justification.
With the saber-rattling from the Trump administration growing louder than ever, and with many speculating about a potential US-driven regime change operation in Venezuela, the pressing question is: How difficult will it be to oust Maduro, and how far is Trump willing to go to achieve that goal?
Challenges inside Venezuela
Any possible invasion of Venezuela could face multiple challenges:
Army air defenses
One of the initial challenges the US invasion of Venezuela would face is the air defense system of the Venezuelan army. While analysts disagree on the full capabilities of Venezuela's air defenses, they concur that the Venezuelan military possesses a network of anti-aircraft systems, several air defense units armed with artillery, and numerous portable air-defense systems (MANPADS). According to Jeff Ramsey, a Venezuela expert at the Atlantic Council, the Venezuelan military also fields an advanced, long-range missile system capable of shooting down aircraft and ballistic missiles.
Armed forces loyal to Maduro
It also should be taken into account that the armed forces under Hugo Chavez and his successor Maduro have been rebuilt to resist coups. Venezuela's military command is staffed based on political loyalty, and any officer deemed a threat to the political status quo is swiftly dismissed, imprisoned, or forced into exile. Venezuelan officers are also acutely aware that the penalty for a failed coup includes imprisonment, torture, asset seizure, and reprisals against family members. They understand that moving against Maduro without a clear roadmap and defined objectives would be an immense risk.
Ambiguity in post-Maduro situation
Even if the Venezuela president were forced into exile, significant questions would remain. Can Maria Corina Mahado, the opposition leader, actually consolidate power? Would she be able to work with the existing government structure, or would he immediately begin purging Maduro loyalists? What happens if Venezuela's armed forces refuse to recognize a new government? Who would secure key government buildings, ports, airports, and military installations?
These critical uncertainties lie at the heart of any potential US military intervention in Venezuela. Furthermore, the risks of instability and civil war in any post-Maduro scenario are severe and cannot be underestimated. Many senior military officers would likely resist a regime change, making a rebellion by factions of Venezuela's security forces a very real possibility following a US-backed overthrow.
Local and guerilla groups loyal to government
Even if the US attacks lead to fall of the government, tens of armed groups loyal to Maduro can challenge a new Venezuela, risking a civil war and a situation like that followed collapse of Libyan leader Muammar Gafdafi in 2011. Possible instability in Venezuela would cause a quagmire Washington would find it uneasy to move out of. The lathe number of militias across Venezuela would mean that any power vacuum would means clashes and rivalry over power.
Furthermore, the impoverished neighborhoods of Caracas and other Venezuelan cities are home to thousands of gangs and paramilitary groups loyal to Maduro, who have vowed to fight any foreign intervening force. These groups possess the capability to use improvised explosives and even armed drones, and could easily plunge the nation into a state of profound instability. Compounding this threat, an estimated six million firearms are in the hands of civilians. Any post-Maduro government would immediately face the monumental task of confronting thousands of armed and guerrilla-style factions.
Outlook for military operation in Venezuela
Outlook of a military invasion of Venezuela may look attractive to the US president, but he has long shown himself as an opponent of costly foreign military operations and it is unlikely that regime change or secret operations in Venezuela would be an easy job and so Washington should be more cautious about the costs, risks, and possible consequences of intervention in the Latin American country.
Military experts speaking with the International Crisis Group suggest the US does not appear to be preparing for a large-scale ground invasion akin to the wars in Afghanistan or Iraq. Instead, they assess the US administration is likely preparing for a swift, short-duration strike operation similar to attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities.
This shift is notable given Trump's past stance on foreign intervention. During the Arab awakening a decade ago, he initially supported the US-NATO intervention in Libya but later reversed his position following the destabilization that toppled Gaddafi. On the 2016 campaign trail, Trump argued Libya would be better off if Gaddafi had remained in power. Now, he appears to be embracing military interventionism once more, though it is unlikely he is blind to the potential costs of entanglement in a foreign nation.
Should long-range airstrikes fail to topple the Venezuelan government, the Trump administration would face a difficult choice: sending ground forces, similar to the invasions of Panama in 1989 or Iraq in 2003. However, such a massive military mission is fundamentally at odds with the core tenets of Trump's "America First" foreign policy doctrine and would face fierce opposition from many of his own political allies. His base overwhelmingly wants the US to disengage from foreign conflicts, and a military intervention in Venezuela would directly run counter to Trump's promises to his supporters.
International actors not aligned with Trump's anti-Venezuelan approach
The Venezuelan relations with neighboring Colombia have gone chilly since 2024, but the recent American attacks on the Colombian boats two and prospects of military intervention in a neighboring country have given the Colombian President Gustavo Petro a reason to voice solidarity with Caracas. Bogota has even vowed it will begin sharing military intelligence with Caracas in the face of Washington's hostile approach. Colombia is deeply alarmed by the prospect of a US war against Venezuela, recognizing that an American military intervention could trigger widespread chaos and a massive new wave of Venezuelan migrants and refugees across its border. The country has already absorbed between 7 to 8 million Venezuelan displaced persons since 2014. A war would inevitably lead to a further, dramatic exodus of Venezuelan citizens into Colombia. This is primary reason for Bogota's fierce opposition to any American military action.
The opposition does not come only from Colombia. China, Russia, and Iran as a rising bloc on the world stage will challenge the US attacks on Venezuela. Legally, the US operation will face negative vote of at least China and Russia as two permanent UN Security Council members, something making American job more difficult.
