Alwaght- As the Gaza ceasefire continues, Andisheh Sazan-e-Nour Institute for Strategic Studies in Tehran that follows the regional developments has held a meeting discussing the reasons behind Trump presenting his truce plan and also the outlook for the Israeli regime and Palestinian resistance groups in the context of the current international landscape.
At the meeting, the head of the institute, Professor Saadullah Zaree, commented on the Trump's plan and Israeli ceasefire policy. This reports brings the most important highlights of the meeting.
Israel had no choice but to accept truce
Commenting on the factors driving Trump to propose his ceasefire plan, Mr Zaree said that without any doubt if the Israelis based on Netanyahu's model could reach their goals of war, they would not have chosen the prisoner swap deal. In other words, accepting the prisoner swap was done by somebody who designed the strategy for settling the issue using force. Israel's acceptance of the prisoner exchange shows that Tel Aviv has faced failure in its military method. Over the past approximately 4 to 5 months, the Zionists pursued two military scenarios, neither of which achieved results: The first military plan was Operation Gideon 2," whose failure was announced by the Israeli army later in August. The Israeli army's second offensive was Operation Gideon's Chariots, and two weeks after this operation, whispers of the unattainability of the objectives in this military operation were heard from the Zionists. Ultimately, despite 4 months of Gideon and Gideon's Chariots operations, the Israeli army was unable to penetrate the cities and was stopped. This very failure of Israel on the military path caused the Israelis to move towards negotiations for a prisoner swap deal.
Home and foreign pressure: The factor behind Netanyahu accepting the ceasefire
The West Asia affairs expert also commented on other reasons why Tel Aviv accepted the ceasefire. The Israelis needed a fresh breath to assuage the home pressure for release of their prisoners. At the same time, Netanyahu cabinet was under international pressure for its crimes in Gaza. Here, the Israeli army needed a respite to reduce both the internal and external pressure on itself. Consequently, it welcomed the Trump plan and assessed this plan as an opportunity for itself. However, the Trump plan contained elements that ran counter to the Israeli army's strategy, including withdrawal from Gaza, a ceasefire, and the establishment of a Palestinian government in Gaza. It was very different from Israel's initial war objectives, but the internal and external pressures on Netanyahu forced them to inevitably move towards a prisoner swap deal.
Palestinians' conditions at the time of ceasefire
Mr Zaree commented on accepting the deal by the Palestinian side, saying that on the Palestinian side, there were some pressures due to displacement of Gazans. About 2.3 millions people are displaced in Gaza and Israeli regime was killing 80 civilians on average. The daily repeat pf these Israeli crimes pushed the Palestinians to think a way, though the Palestinian resistance did its plan. Actually, the resistance has always sought management of the situation.
Resistance groups' stance
Commenting on the outlook of the resistance about ceasefire, Mr Zaree said that for the Palestinian side, stopping the war and a ceasefire is the top priority in Gaza. The Palestinian resistance has also emphasized the withdrawal of the Israeli army from parts of Gaza and the opening of routes for humanitarian aid. These objectives were accessible to the Palestinians based on the Trump plan. This is precisely why the Palestinian resistance, when it saw its goals being pursued relatively, accepted the ceasefire proposal.
Tel Aviv seeking excuse to breach the ceasefire
Asked about the possibility of Israel violating the truce, Mr Zaree held that the Israeli regime does not look at the ceasefire as a strategy, but as a tactic. The Zionists seek a pretext, or even without it, to return to Gaza. According to figures, since the ceasefire took effect two weeks ago, tens of Palestinians were killed by the Israeli regime in Gaza.
Scenarios of resumption of Gaza war
Regarding the repeated violations of the ceasefire by the Israelis , Mr Zaree said the current ceasefire is fragile, and we may see an escalation of clashes in Gaza in the coming days. However, Israel's military approach in Gaza is expected to follow a pattern where new conflicts gradually intensify, and daily skirmishes slowly give way to ceasefires, though the intensity of the war may be lower than before. This is one likely scenario after the ceasefire, and some sources, citing reports from within the Israeli military, have suggested such a possibility.
On the other hand, some analysts have stated that after the ceasefire, Israel will shift from military operations to security operations. To prevent reconstruction in Gaza and force Palestinians to migrate and leave the region, Israel will activate a security phase in Gaza to keep the region in a state of crisis. Other analyses point to a hybrid model combining the two aforementioned scenarios. It appears that a third model, involving a certain level of military operations alongside security and terrorist activities, will replace the previous large-scale military operations by the Israeli army after the ceasefire.
Resistance forces ready for action
At the end of the meeting, the West Asia affairs expert said the resistance groups are ready to react should Israeli violates the ceasefire, adding that the resistance needed a power revival and so it responded positively to the ceasefire. On the other hand, since Hamas and other resistance groups are not violators to the truce, if the war breaks out afresh, the resistance can fight with a more strength. Also, it should be taken into consideration that the resistance is not weak in terms of weapons and a few weeks before the ceasefire, we witnessed Palestinian operation taking an upward tone. So, the resistance is ready to stand in the face of new aggression by the occupiers, and if the ceasefire is violated, the resistance can very well respond to the Zionists.
