Alwaght- As Israel once again cut off the aid to Gaza in the holy month of Ramadan and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his cabal stepped up threats to resume the war on the Palestinian enclave, Yemen's Ansarullah resistance movement resumed its operations against the Israeli territorial security and maritime interests in the Red Sea, once again bringing back the nightmare of attacks to the Israelis.
Immediately after the end of the deadline set by Ansarullah leader Sayyed Abdul Malik al-Houthi to Tel Aviv, the spokesman to the Yemeni armed forces General Yahya Saree on Wednesday said: "We have decided to resume the ban on Israeli ships in the Red Sea, the Arabian Sea, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. This ban will continue until the Gaza Strip border crossings are reopened and food and medicine are allowed into the Strip by the Zionist regime."
Saying that the ban is in immediately in effect, Saree added: "Any Israeli ship that violates this ban will be attacked in the operation region."
With the Ansarullah attacks on Israeli ships back in the Red Sea, a question presents itself: What influence do the new military pressures of Ansarullah have on the new Israeli and American plans on the future of ceasefire and governance in Gaza?
High alert in Israeli cities and ports
With the end of the deadline set by Ansarallah, concerns about the spread of the conflict and its impact on the internal security of the occupied territories have increased.
Given the experience of previous operations, Israeli citizens and the regime's army have panicked. According to Israeli media, as soon as Sana'a deadline expired, the occupation regime's air force went on high alert to intercept possible Yemeni drones and missiles.
Ansarallah's long-range missiles and suicide drones can target sensitive points in the south and even the center of Israel, which increases panic among the settlers. Though the Yemeni missiles are not fired yet, fear has spread throughout the occupied territories. So, if the Yemenis act on their promises of strikes on Israel, without any doubt many Israeli cities and infrastructure will be vulnerable to Ansarullah's drones and missiles.
Amid Gaza war, border tensions on Syria-Lebanon borders, and the clashes in the West Bank with Israelis, opening new front against Israel by Yemen can put strains on the Israeli defense and security systems.
In Gaza war, the Israeli much-vaunted Iron Dome air defense showed that it cannot provide an effective coverage in case of large number missile firing. Therefore, if Ansarallah launches a massive attack, the fear of the ineffectiveness of the defense systems will increase the psychological pressure on the settlers and may accelerate the process of reverse migration from the occupied territories, indicating the settlers' distrust in the future of this regime.
To this end, in order to prevent the return of the shadow of war, they are pressuring the Netanyahu government to resume the second round of ceasefire negotiations as soon as possible and open the aid routes to Gaza.
High economic costs for Tel Aviv
In addition to the deterioration of insecurity, the firing of missiles and drones at the occupied territories will put a heavy economic cost on the Israelis.
Ansarallah’s repeated attacks on Israeli ships and other Israeli-bound vessels in the Red Sea have affected global trade routes. The blockade of sea routes by Ansarullah has caused major shipping companies to shift their routes from the Red Sea to the Cape of Good Hope, which has increased transportation costs and raised the price of goods in the Israeli regime. This situation has increased economic pressure on the Israeli regime.
Israel is largely dependent on the sea trade routes, with half of its maritime trade carried out through the Red Sea, and Ansarallah’s operation would cut off the regime’s commercial artery.
In last year that Ansarallah pushed the navigation of Israeli ships through the Red Sea to zero, imports of basic goods and industrial raw materials suffered delays, leading to a decrease in production and an increase in inflation in the occupied territories. Also, with the increase in trade costs, Israel's economic growth in 2024 suffered a downturn, and the regime's financial rating fell to its lowest level in decades.
Earlier, the director of the Eilat port had announced that if Yemen's operations continue, they will damage the regime's economy by billions of dollars annually. So, the resumption of attacks of Sana'a will trap Israel in an economic quagmire that may take the Israelis years to recover from.
On the other hand, foreign investors usually withdraw their capital from risky areas in times of insecurity and economic crisis, and the Ansarallah attacks have caused some large international companies to scale down their investments in the occupied territories, and as long as the shadow of war is not lifted from the Israelis, foreign investors will be unwilling to resume their business in the occupied territories.
Additionally, Israel sends a major part of gas it produces to the global markets through its ports. If Yemen expands its strikes to cover Israeli oil and gas facilities, gas supplies to Europe and Asia will suffer disruption and consequently energy prices will rally in the occupied territories. If the attacks continue, Israeli economy will face recession and financial crisis, something expected to impact Tel Aviv's political and military decisions.
Influence of Sana'a deadline on course of ceasefire negotiations
There is no doubt that Ansarallah's warnings will have a significant impact on the developments in the Gaza war and the process of ceasefire talks. Although the hardline ministers in Tel Aviv want to continue the fighting in Gaza in order to destroy Hamas and implement their occupational plan, they are still afraid of Ansarallah's response. Aware of this dangerous situation, the Netanyahu cabinet reluctantly agreed to the 50-day ceasefire negotiated by Hamas and the US. This shows that Tel Aviv leaders are worried about the return of Yemeni operations.
If Ansarallah steps up attacks on the Israeli regime and its ships, international pressure on the regime will increase to end the fighting as soon as possible. In this situation, Hamas can enjoy a better position in the ceasefire negotiations and wrest more concessions from the Israeli side.
Some Arab countries, such as Saudi Arabia, are trying to prevent an escalation in the region, but if Tel Aviv attacks Gaza and Yemen again, it is likely that the normalization talks between Riyadh and Tel Aviv will be stop. In this case, Israel will grow more isolated and international pressure to stop the war in Gaza will build on the government.
Having in mind that Trump administration has shown in recent days that it only pursues its own interests and is unwilling to support Tel Aviv with all its might, the Israeli regime, under international pressure, may accept some of Hamas's conditions, such as a complete cessation of hostilities or the release of prominent Palestinian prisoners. In this scenario, Ansarallah's attacks will benefit Hamas and the possibility of a ceasefire will increase.
On the other hand, Ansarallah, with its ultimatum, intends to warn the White House leaders, especially Trump, that supporting the Israelis has a heavy price to pay. This issue, at a time when Trump blacklisted Ansarallah as a terror organization, sends a message to Washington that an attack on American ships and interests in the Red Sea is still on Sanaa's table and will be carried when the need arises.
Generally, end of Ansarullah's deadline and start of attacks will subject Israel to more intense state of insecurity. Further missile and drone attacks, the possible failure of air defense systems, the displacement of settlers, and the economic crisis will spread panic and chaos in the occupied territories. In this case, Tel Aviv will face serious security and economic challenges in the coming weeks. Continuation of Gaza war will increase chances of a broader regional conflict and will bring forth a risky future conditions to Tel Aviv and its allies. In other words, the political and military decisions of Israeli leaders will have a decisive role in determining the fate of this crisis in the upcoming weeks.
