Alwaght- Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is set to officially visit the US. It is the first official visit since March 2018. The last time he flew to the US to meet the US President Donald Trump the situation was different for him and his country. He at the time was just appointed crown prince, ousting his uncle Mohammed bin Nayef, while he was in the middle of a 15-month purging campaign targeting business people, state officials, and royals. This campaign finally cemented his grip on power and give out from him a face of authority and dominance over the state.
Just seven months after that visit, bin Salman faced explosive accusations that he was involved in the brutal murder of Jamal Khashoggi, the Washington Post journalist. The killing triggered a global wave of condemnation and turned international public opinion sharply against Saudi Arabia. Simultaneously, the humanitarian crisis in Yemen was deepening, creating serious concerns among international bodies and the American public. Despite the Trump administration's attempts to downplay these crises, the US Congress and a significant portion of the American public remained wary of Riyadh.
It was during this period that the Trump administration announced the Abraham Accords, normalizing relations between the Israeli regime and several regional countries, including the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. Saudi Arabia's absence from these deals highlighted its unique and pivotal position in the region's power dynamics.
When the Biden administration took office, Washington-Riyadh relations chilled under the weight of human rights criticisms, particularly the Khashoggi murder case. Biden's July 2022 meeting with Bin Salman drew fierce domestic criticism. Nevertheless, his administration continued efforts to broker a normalization agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel. However, the Hamas October 7, 2023 attack on Israel and the subsequent war in Gaza derailed all such efforts. The prolonged conflict has effectively deadlocked any potential progress on this front.
With the return of Trump to power in January 2025 and the tangible welcome of Riyadh to this political change in the US, an opportunity for re-tuning the relations emerged. Trump's visit to Riyadh in May as the first foreign destination after he retook power was a highlight of the significance of relations with Saudi Arabia and bin Salman himself in the US's west Asia policy. During this visit, which saw Trump also visiting the UAE and Qatar, a set of defense and technological agreements were inked, mainly focusing on data centers, AI, and common investments.
These developments reveal that bin Salman arrives in Washington today in a position way different from that of 2018. He has successfully cultivated a warmer, closer relationship with the US, mended ties with Iran, advanced negotiations to end the war in Yemen, and played an influential role in international and regional developments, from Syria and Ukraine to Sudan and the Gaza ceasefire.
His domestic social and cultural reforms have also projected an image of a developmental state, which could alleviate the concerns of critical factions, particularly Democrats, regarding freedom of expression, thereby paving the way for broader strategic cooperation.
Under these circumstances, this visit is expected to place significant topics on the agenda, with agreements likely to take shape across various sectors.
Economic partnership: From AI to nuclear energy
A significant part of the negotiations will likely concentrate on common economic and technological investments, especially in such areas as AI and energy that are the key pillars of Saudi Arabia’s 2030 Vision, a plan aimed at cutting Riyadh’s reliance on oil revenues and developing the kingdom technologically. The Persian Gulf monarchy is making massive investments in data centers and digital infrastructure, allocating over $21 billion solely for data center development. This is complemented by continued investments in data-driven industries such as electric vehicles, advanced manufacturing, artificial intelligence, and space technologies.
While oil and gas remain the bedrock of the Saudi economy, the Kingdom is seriously committing capital to renewable energy, including solar power. The high energy demands of AI data centers are also pushing Saudi Arabia toward a civilian nuclear program. This ambition was advanced last May when the two nations signed a cooperation agreement covering the development of Generation III+ reactors, small modular reactors, and non-proliferation programs. Saudi Arabia's goal of achieving domestic uranium enrichment capability, however, faces significant constraints and strict requirements due to concerns in Washington and staunch Israeli opposition to a nuclear Saudi Arabia with a full fuel cycle.
A key obstacle to Riyadh's nuclear ambitions is likely to be Israeli opposition. It remains unclear whether Trump administration would link the approval of Saudi Arabia's nuclear program to a normalization deal with the Israeli regime and a broader arms control framework. In this high-stakes negotiation, bin Salman is announcing his readiness to deploy a powerful bargaining chip: a potential $600 billion investment package in the US, a key priority for Trump, to strengthen his negotiating position.
Concluding the security pact
One of the key issues of their negotiation is determination of the fate of the security pact between Saudi Arabia and the US that dates back to Biden administration and within which Riyadh demands upping the American security and military guarantees to Saudi Arabia, in a way that any military invasion of Saudi Arabia will trigger American military intervention in defense of the Arab kingdom.
The September 2019 drone and missile attacks on the Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities, which temporarily halved the nation's oil output, remain seared into Riyadh's strategic memory. That event starkly demonstrated that the limited American response was insufficient.
Ahead of bin Salman's visit, a flurry of high-level political meetings has laid the groundwork for negotiations on this very issue. Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman met with US National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, while Mohammed bin Salman also hosted Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law and a key architect of his administration's West Asia policy. These discussions have primarily centered on a landmark US-Saudi security pact and the normalization of relations between Riyadh and Tel Aviv.
In a significant shift from the previous Trump administration's stance, which made a new security pact conditional on Saudi Arabia accepting a normalization deal, the current White House appears to be taking steps to decouple the two issues. There are even indications of an effort to frame the treaty under the president's special authorities, a move that would bypass the need for Congressional approval and expedite its implementation.
In this connection, new defense deals and military equipment supplies worth $142 billion, including F-35 fighter jets, are the key part of the discussions. Though under Biden delivery of these stealth fighter jets was tied to the normalization with Israel, it remains to see if this condition still stands.
Reports suggest that the Trump administration may revise arms sales protocols, potentially paving the way for Saudi Arabia to acquire a limited number of F-35 fifth-generation fighter jets. With an estimated price tag of up to $100 million per unit, these aircraft are currently operated exclusively by Israel in the Middle East and North Africa. Tel Aviv has consistently argued that selling the F-35 to any other regional power would erode its qualitative military edge and strategic aerial dominance.
However, Israeli opposition is not the only obstacle to this deal. The Pentagon has also raised serious concerns, warning of the significant risk that China could gain access to the jet's sensitive technology if it is sold to Riyadh. This assessment stems from Saudi Arabia's recent strategic push to diversify its arms suppliers and deepen its military cooperation with Beijing. Consequently, US defense officials are wary that the advanced capabilities of the F-35 could be compromised by Chinese espionage.
Regional cases, from Gaza to normalization
Politically and diplomatically, Syria and Gaza are two key topics of discussion at the White House. The Saudi role in lifting the American sanctions against Syria and simultaneous competition with Turkey for regional influence indicate Riyadh’s strategic position. At the same time, Saudi Arabia is seeking a pivotal role in Gaza reconstruction, but it stresses that any reconstruction should be tied to full Hamas disarming and that any direct or indirect presence of this resistance movement in new Gaza administration is unacceptable. As a result, Trump faces a dilemma: align with the Riyadh-Abu Dhabi axis or the Ankara-Doha axis; there is no viable middle ground. The leaders' decision on Gaza, particularly regarding the roles of Turkey and Qatar, will likely be the most significant outcome of the meeting, even if it is not announced publicly during the press conference.
Normalization with the Israeli regime remains on the agenda. However, the Saudis are not currently prepared to move toward a political agreement. They have set two fundamental preconditions: Disarming Hamas and other resistance groups and restructuring of Gaza, and the creating a credible political path for the Palestinians. While these conditions do not preclude limited economic cooperation or unofficial engagement, formal normalization will almost be delayed until after the Israeli elections in 2026.
In this visit, bin Salman is expected to publicly announce his affirmation to Trump's 20-point Gaza ceasefire. But the Saudi practical participation even in reconstruction of Gaza is tied to full disarming of Hamas and fundamental reforms in the organization of the Palestinian Authority. This dynamic underscores a complex challenge. For any agreement to be sustainable, Trump and bin Salman must successfully navigate not only their bilateral interests, but also the intricate regional chessboard and the potent domestic imperatives within the Arab kingdom.
