Alwaght- Armenia and Azerbaijan signed an agreement on Friday at the White House with the US mediation. The White House said that this agreement is signed to end the decades-long dispute between the two neighbors over Zangezur Corridor. However, the agreement looks more a path giving the US a foothold in Caucasus than ending the deep historical dispute, though it is accompanied with many complications. This report looks at the agreement and its geopolitical impacts in the region.
Details of the agreement
According to the announcement by the three countries published by the Foreign Policy, the statement includes the following items:
- The three countries agreed to build a transit corridor that would link mainland Azerbaijan to the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, passing through Armenia’s southernmost province of Syunik.
- Washington will have the right to lease the transit corridor.
- The name of the route has been changed to the Trump International Corridor for Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP).
- The project will be implemented under the legal jurisdiction of the Armenian government.
- The land for the 43-kilometer transit route will be leased to the US government for 99 years.
- The US government will lease the transit route under its control to a private American company to oversee construction and management.
An old dispute
Azerbaijan and Armenia have been at a deadly war for years over the disputed mountainous Karabakh region. The war has so far killed thousands of people from both sides and displaced over 100,000. In 2020, President Vladimir Putin of Russia mediated a ceasefire deal, but the negotiations managed to stop the war only for a short time. Azerbaijan in a lightening attack in 2023 seized Armenian-majority region of Republic of Artsakh and gained full control over Karabakh. The Nagorno-Karabakh region was part of the Republic of Azerbaijan after the collapse of the Soviet Union and was occupied by the Armenian army at that time, but in 2023, Azerbaijan managed to reclaim it.
In early 2025, Yerevan and Baku reached an agreement on the text of the peace agreement, but one major sticking point remained: Armenia’s concern over Azerbaijan’s request to build a road to the Nakhchivan Autonomous Region, a request that Armenia did not agree to, but on which implementing Azerbaijan insisted. The recent agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the White House emphasizes the construction of the same route under US supervision, which would allow for “unimpeded connectivity” between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan, although control of the route would no longer be in the hands of either Azerbaijan or Armenia, with the US directly involved.
Agreement or treaty: Ambiguity surrounding settlement of dispute
What was signed on Friday was not a peace treaty, rather, it was an agreement for peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia. According to the New York Times, the two neighbors are expected to discuss details. Actually, there are yet many obstacles for its implementation and change into a peace treaty. Here are some:
Ambiguity surrounding borders: According to the Washington Post, the recent White House agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia does not resolve the two countries’ competing claims over sovereignty over key territories and does not determine the borders between Armenia and Azerbaijan, one of the fundamental issues underlying their long-standing standoff. The agreement also does not address human rights claims remaining after Azerbaijan annexed Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023.
Dispute over Armenia constitution: Azerbaijan insists that Armenia must amend its constitution to eliminate any territorial claims to the Karabakh region. However, according to the New York Times, the Armenian constitution does not directly refer to the disputed region, rather, it refers in its preamble to the Armenian Declaration of Independence, which refers to the “reunification” of Karabakh with Armenia. President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan has repeatedly stressed in the past that a peace agreement is not possible without changes to the preamble to the Armenian constitution, and it is still unclear where Baku and Yerevan’s dispute over the Armenian constitution will lead.
Differences over prisoners, captives, and rights claims against both sides: On the other hand, Armenia has consistently demanded that Azerbaijan release Armenian prisoners and guarantee that the approximately 150,000 ethnic Armenians expelled during the occupation of Karabakh can return home. This issue is also not addressed in the White House agreement. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan have also filed claims against each other in several cases at the International Court of Justice. It is unclear whether these complaints will be withdrawn after the joint statement was signed at the White House.
Armenia's home and foreign opposition: Indeed, creating the transit corridor named after Trump will present its own challenges. At the same time, there are warnings of a backlash from Tehran, and public opinion in Armenia may oppose the ceding of part of the country to a foreign power. Alex Galitsky, policy director for the Armenian National Committee of America, told the New York Times that “what we are seeing is an agreement that rewards Azerbaijani aggression, undermines Armenian sovereignty, and ignores justice for the 150,000 Armenians who have been driven from their homes.”
Failed past experiences: Past experience shows that geopolitical initiatives in Caucasus can enjoy initial optimism, but they soon go shaky because of differences over details. The Key West peace process in 2001 involving Armenia and Azerbaijan, the diplomatic normalization protocols between Armenia and Turkey in 2009, and the abortive Minsk agreement are the most prominent examples of potential peace agreements related to the Caucasus, none of which could achieve their ultimate goal.
Geopolitical effects of Trump Corridor
It seems that the Trump Corridor is of considerable geopolitical impacts. These impacts mainly include major actors in the Caucasus:
Iran: Iran will be a direct and immediate neighbor of the Zangezur Corridor. This corridor, adjacent to the Iranian border and in the possession of the US, could lead to the establishment of US strategic spying and eavesdropping facilities near Iran’s northern border. The construction of this trade corridor could also significantly disrupt Iranian trade. Bilateral trade between Iran and Armenia has increased sharply in recent years, and Yerevan has served as a vital outlet for Iranian goods, including as a conduit for Iran-Russia trade. The construction of a corridor between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan would mean cutting off Iran’s direct land access to Armenian territory.
Another detrimental effect of the new corridor for Iran is the loss of the opportunity for oil swaps with Azerbaijan. The Azerbaijan oil swap is a win-win deal for Iran, as Iran would receive Azerbaijan's oil on its northern border and supply the equivalent with similar specifications in the Persian Gulf from domestic production to Azerbaijan's customers. Meanwhile, without any actual oil transfer, Iran would receive foreign exchange earnings per barrel, and at the same time, the Tabriz refinery would be supplied with oil imported from Azerbaijan at the lowest cost of transporting oil from the oil-rich province of Khuzestan in southwest of the country. Now, if the alleged corridor becomes operational, both Iran's foreign exchange earnings will be lost and the cost of transporting oil from Khuzestan and other oil fields to the Tabriz refinery will also be added to Iran's costs.
In general, the repercussions of the new corridor for Iran could include removing Iran from the route connecting Turkey to Central Asia, cutting its influence in the Caucasus, strengthening NATO's presence on northern Iranian borders, hitting Iran's transit revenues, and limiting Iran's access to markets and neighbors. These are damages of the corridor on which many experts agree.
Russia: With the US entering the historical dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Russia’s authority in the Caucasus region has been effectively called into question. The US securing the Zangezur Corridor would be a significant setback for Russia in the South Caucasus. Russia has long sought to negotiate a permanent peace agreement in the Caucasus, and Russian President Putin brokered a ceasefire in 2020 and has been periodically bringing together the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia. But Putin’s influence over the conflict has waned as Russia has turned its attention to a full-scale war with Ukraine in 2022. Also in 2023, Russian military forces deployed in the region failed to prevent Azerbaijan from seizing Karabakh region, leading to an estimated 100,000 Armenians fleeing their homes.
In addition, the construction of a US-dominated corridor would be a major blow to Russia’s credibility as a major and long-standing player in the Caucasus. Previously, the Kremlin had been an active peacekeeping force in any political arrangements in the region, but now, with the US taking control of the Zangezur Corridor, Russia’s ability to exert strategic influence over Armenia and Azerbaijan has been significantly compromised.
Konstantin Zatulin, deputy chairman of the Russian State Duma’s CIS Affairs Committee, told Lenta.ru news website that the agreement “simultaneously means Russia’s expulsion from the Caucasus and the entry of the US into the region.” Zatulin added that Russia’s only remaining strategic base in the region is a military base in Armenia, and that it is now “on the brink of collapse.”
The US: The US is striving to get a foothold in the strategic Caucasus region. This agreement can advance the Washington-eyed trade network to boost the American and European trade with Central Asia and the Caucasus. Trump is also endeavoring to get the Nobel Peace Prize. He has earlier claimed to have been involved in ceasefire negotiations between Cambodia and Thailand, the Israel-Iran war, and tensions between India and Pakistan, and now claims to have brokered a historic peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia. For Trump, who has achieved nothing in Gaza or the Ukraine war, the Azerbaijan-Armenia peace would be a valuable opportunity to promote his diplomacy.
China: Although China is not an active player in the Caucasus, but the region is part of a land route for Chinese access to the European markets. From this perspective, China domination of the Zangezur Corridor rings a serious alarm to this Chinese access and so even Beijing can be unhappy with Washington controlling this corridor.
