Alwaght-Despite the rise of far-right extremist politicians in Europe and the US, opinion polls show French voters are set to reject that route and opt for an independent president.
The first round of the French presidential election is set for April 23rd 2017 and if, as predicted, no candidate secures a majority, a run-off election will be held between the top two candidates on 7 May 2017.
Leading candidates include Francois Fillon representing Les Republicains, Benoit Hamon the flagbearer of Socialists, Marine Le Pen from the extremist far-right Front National and Emmanual Macron an Independent who is seen as having the highest chances of moving into the Elysee Palace, the official residence of the President of France.
Hollande opts out
Last December, incumbent François Hollande became the first president in modern French history to decide not to run for re-election. His decision was not unexpected as he is the least popular French president since the second world war. A constantly high unemployment rate and fatal terrorist attacks have rocked the country and its Socialist Party president.
Meanwhile, two recent opinion polls show that independent candidate Macron would trounce extremist far-right leader Marine Le Pen in the runoff of the country's presidential election in May.
Analysts believe Macron has been boosted by the alliance announced this week with centrist politician Francois Bayrou. This alliance has enabled the economist to overtake conservative candidate Francois Fillon.
Independent Candidate Macron projected to win
An opinion poll conducted by Odoxa/Dentsu-Consulting indicated that Macron, 39, a former economy minister running without the support of any traditional political party, would beat Le Pen in the run-off with 61 per cent of the vote, versus 39 per cent for her.
Another poll by Figaro/LCI showed Macron winning the runoff by 58 per cent to 42 per cent for Ms Le Pen. During the first round of voting there will be an array of candidates who will scatter the votes with Le Pen likely to lead with over 25 per cent of votes cast. But, in round two, when she would face a single candidate where by all candidates opposed to the far right are expected to unite and give her a resounding defeat.
Another poll by IFPO showed Le Pen garnering 25.5 percent of the vote in the April 23 first round, up 1.5 percent since Feb. 1, while Macron would get 20.5 percent, up 0.5 percent over the same period. Conservative candidate Francois Fillon placed at 18.5 percent, down from 21 percent. Socialist candidate Benoit Hamon has lost momentum since his nomination in a primary vote, and was now seen gathering 15.5 percent of the votes, down from 18 percent on Feb. 1.
Pro-Trump Le Pen slums media
In an apparent reference to the new poll, Le Pen, a staunch ally of controversial racist US president Donald Trump has accused media of favoring her opponents. Clearly Le Pen seems to be taking cue from Trump in blaming the media. Clearly, Trump and Le Pen have many commonalities. Apart from their hatred of the mainstream media they have exhibited open hostility to Islam and Muslims, extremist nationalism, populism, isolationism and support for Brexit.
Addressing a campaign meeting in the French western city of Nantes on Sunday, Le Pen claimed Macron and right-wing contender Francois Fillon are backed by banks and media groups, saying the two did not believe in France anymore.
If the opinion poll is right, then the French appear to be rejecting far-right extremism fronted by Le Pen as such a path would put the country and a destructive downward trajectory. In any case opinion polls indicate that Trump is unpopular with French voters including some on the far right thus this will increase chances of Le Pen suffering defeat.
However, Le Pen still retains a possibility of winning by spreading Islamophobia, a slow economy and buoyed by the victory of far-right movements across Europe. Her chances of winning will also be boosted in case of voter apathy. A victory by Le Pen would put the future of EU in jeopardy and risk the lives of millions of migrants in the country.
Can opinion polls be trusted?
While the opinion polls show Le Pen losing in the runoff, recent experiences show the pollsters in the Western world can no longer be trusted to accurately predict elections outcome. Polling organizations got it stunningly wrong on Brexit referendum and also their predictions on the US presidential elections went awry although Hillary Clinton is reported to have won the popular vote which Trump disputed.
Indeed, to avoid falling into the same trap, a leading French daily, Le Parisien has declared that it would stop commissioning polls in the run-up to the French presidential election and instead concentrated on-the-ground reporting to read the public mood.
