Alwaght- With the halt of war between Hamas and Israel, the eyes of Israeli officials are now on the northern front and the Lebanese borders. Massive attacks of the Israeli army on Lebanon's southern regions in recent weeks have strengthened the speculation that a fresh confrontation between Hezbollah and Tel Aviv is likely.
Evidence of possible Israeli adventures
Though still no official decision has been made by Israel to wage a fresh war, field evidence suggests that northern front is bearing potentials for big developments in the near future.
In this regard, the Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz on Monday visited the borders with Lebanon along with the American envoy to Lebanon Morgan Ortagus. The aim was to watch Hezbollah activities, Israeli media reported.
Israeli sources also reported that Israel has reportedly requested continued US authorization for its periodic airstrikes inside Lebanon, a move that signals close coordination between the two allies on this front.
This development follows a recent report by Israel's Kan channel, which revealed that US officers are embedded at the Northern Command headquarters in Safed, directly overseeing military operations against Lebanon.
Meanwhile, the Israeli military has launched major exercises in the Upper Galilee region. In a near-daily basis, Israeli drones are conducting strikes on Lebanese territory, targeting individuals Tel Aviv identifies as Hezbollah members. However, evidence on the ground indicates a significant number of the casualties have been civilians.
For some observers, these escalating actions point to an gradual escalation towards a wider war. Yet, Israel's campaign can also be interpreted from another perspective.
Why is war with Hezbollah not easy for Tel Aviv?
Though th Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his hardline cabinet ministers believe that now with the stop of the Gaza war it is a ripe opportunity to deal the final blow to Hezbollah, the reality suggests that a rejuvenated war is a big deal Israel cannot bear.
First reason is that the Israeli army is exhausted and cannot enter a new war after two years of fighting in Gaza.
Israeli media reports suggest that tens of thousands of Israeli forces are refusing to return to the fronts. Simultaneously, a surge of protests by Israeli citizens against resuming the war highlights a growing war-weariness and frustration within Israeli society over prolonged and recurring conflicts. People in the occupied territories, exhausted by the human and economic costs, are demanding a permanent end to the conflicts.
This pushes Netanyahu and the hardliners around him to face serious challenges despite their grandstanding. Any new military adventures risk triggering a fresh political crisis within Israel, further destabilizing its political and military foundations.
Compounding this is Hezbollah's increasingly public readiness for a new war. While Tel Aviv claims to have destroyed a significant portion of the resistance movement's military infrastructure, intelligence suggests Hezbollah has spent the past year actively rebuilding and modernizing its capabilities.
The movement was initially caught off-guard in the conflict's opening stages last year, suffering heavy blows from the targeted assassinations of several top commanders, including Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and his aide Hashem Safieddine. However, it gradually took the initiative on the battlefield. Through precise rocket and missile attacks that inflicted substantial casualties on the Israeli army, Hezbollah ultimately forced a retreat and compelled the regime to accept a ceasefire.
Now Hezbollah, mending its weaknesses, has rebuilt its organizational structure and is in a situation that can strongly respond to any threat. In his interview with Al-Manar, Hezbollah chief Sheikh Naim Qassem confirmed that "despite human casualties, the resistance is revived and Hezbollah is ready for any scenario and should war is imposed on us, we will defend Lebanon's soil to the last man standing."
Israeli leaders may believe that escalating attacks on Lebanon and pushing to the Litani River will allow them to occupy new territory and secure their northern border. However, the recent statements from Qassem expose this as a dangerous fantasy. Qassem unequivocally declared that resistance forces will never permit the occupying regime to cross into Lebanon and are fully prepared to confront any threat.
The lessons of the past quarter-century also serve as a warning: any ground invasion and attempt at occupation by Israeli forces has historically strengthened Hezbollah, boosting its power and popularity within Lebanese society.
Furthermore, there is no guarantee of a victory for the Israeli military in a new war. After two years of all-out war in Gaza and employing every tool at its disposal, including tactics widely condemned as illegal under international law, the Israeli army failed to disarm or destroy Hamas. It was ultimately forced to the negotiating table to secure a deal.
Hamas's military power is in no way comparable to that of Hezbollah, a highly organized force armed with tens of thousands of precision-guided missiles and advanced drones. With the bitter experience of a humiliating defeat in Gaza fresh in its memory, a similar campaign in Lebanon would be exponentially more difficult for the Israeli occupation army.
A critical complicating factor is the clear divergence between Netanyahu's warmongering and the agenda of US President Donald Trump's peace plan. While Trump unquestionably shares the ultimate goal of destroying Hezbollah and is currently putting strains on the Lebanese government to disarm the movement, he appears to have little appetite for enabling Netanyahu's dangerous gambit, a move seen by many as being less about Israeli security and more about the political survival of the PM.
Having worked to save Tel Aviv from the bottomless quagmire of Gaza, which yielded no tangible strategic victory, Trump is unlikely to want Netanyahu to drag Israel into a new and even more unpredictable crisis.
In Sharm El-Sheikh, the US president with noisy propaganda promoted his 20-point plan for truce in Gaza as "peace" for Palestine and the region. But if a new war breaks out in Lebanon, all his efforts will be shattered as this diplomatic initiative is already on the verge of collapse with Netanyahu continuing his violations of the Sharm El-Sheikh agreement. Over the past few days, Trump sent his representatives to Israel seeking to save the deal. After all, the Sharm El-Sheikh declaration, which is seen by the US administration as a prelude to resumption of the Arab-Israeli normalization process, can fall apart, something that can upset all of Washington's political equations.
Another critical factor that could deter Israel from a military adventure in Lebanon is the potential Iranian reaction to any attack on Lebanon. In previous conflicts between Hezbollah and Israel, Tehran refrained from direct engagement. However, the equation has fundamentally shifted. The two enemies were already locked in a direct, 12-day confrontation during the Lebanon ceasefire, significantly redrawing the boundaries of their conflict.
Furthermore, with the snapback mechanism of the JCPOA now activated by the West against Iran and the international landscape growing more complex, the stakes in the confrontation between Iran and the West have been raised, diminishing many of the previous restraints. So, the prospect of Tehran entering a new war directly, launching decisive missile and drone strikes against Israeli targets, can no longer be dismissed.
Compounding this, Israel's recent attack on Qatar has inadvertently strengthened the anti-Israeli front among Arab nations, driving them closer to Iran. Should conflict in Lebanon escalate, this dynamic is likely to trigger a much broader and more unified regional backlash against Tel Aviv.
Given these factors, Tel Aviv's rush toward a new military campaign would not only impose severe domestic and military costs but could also galvanize a large-scale regional coalition against it, with profound political and security consequences for Tel Aviv regime.
All in all, it can be said that the Israeli aim behind threatening Hezbollah is prevention of Lebanon reconstruction and continuation of people's displacement for the damaged regions to become uninhabitable. In recent weeks, the Israeli army has repeatedly attacked construction sites and cement plants under the ruse of presence of Hezbollah members.
By keeping these regions empty of inhabitants, Tel Aviv seeks to ensure security of the occupied territories and to watch Hezbollah. But experience of decades has proven that any Israeli aggression could end up a failure and the Lebanese resistance will win the battle again.
