Alwaght- After their several-week war in 2020, Azerbaijan and Armenia agreed to a ceasefire and redrawing the borders. However, the Russian-brokered agreement did not satisfy Azerbaijani officials and, thus, they over the past two years have been seeking an opportunity to realize their incomplete policies.
Azerbaijan lays claim on all the regions of Nagorno-Karabakh as its own territory, arguing that all of its territories occupied by Armenia during the post-independence era should be returned to the mainland Azerbaijan. Although Azerbaijan managed to take back large swaths of Karabakh from Armenia in 2020 with, some more areas are still under the control of Armenian and for this reason Azerbaijani forces have engaged in sporadic clashes with Armenian forces in this disputed region in recent weeks, and despite the ceasefire, which is largely fragile, news reports of the neighbors’ clashes are published regularly.
Armenia officials have repeatedly asked Azerbaijan to move back from the borders, but Baku has no intention of removing its forces from the border as it is, emboldened by the 2020 victories and taking advantage of the East-West confrontation in Ukraine, seeking to wage a new war to take back what remains of Karabakh under Armenia control.
In the recent clashes, dozens have been killed and injured, increasing the concerns about the eruption of a new war in the South Caucasus. With President Ilham Aliyev and other officials of Azerbaijan are still insisting to take back these areas, Baku's ambitions can create new crises in the region, with all regional countries falling victim.
Baku claims that according to the 2020 agreement, Zangezur corridor that links Azerbaijan to the Nakhchivan autonomous region should be built but Russian and Armenian officials have repeatedly claimed that the agreement does not contain such term. Still, Azerbaijan is not abandoning its claim and seeks its realization, and the military movements in recent weeks are driven by this intention. By building this corridor, Azerbaijan is trying to permanently cut off the borders of Armenia and Iran and expand its territory. Through the corridor, Azerbaijan wants to unify its territory and after three decades, connect Nakhchivan to the mainland and facilitate access to this region through land borders.
According to the Russian-brokered deal, a corridor was to be built by a Russian supervision that passes through Armenia and links Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan, but Baku eyes a corridor that is off the international supervision and fully controlled by Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan is not a country strong enough to make border changes alone and it has the resolute support of Turkey to realize its ambitions. Turkey and its President Recep Tayyip Erdogan intend to build the Zangezor corridor to, in addition to expanding Azerbaijan territory, pave the way for strengthening relations with Central Asia, where Ankara has many plans. This scenario is part of Erdogan's neo-Ottoman project to expand his power in the Turkic-speaking states and assume the leadership of what he calls the Turkic world.
Iran, a guarantor of the region's geopolitical security and stability
Azerbaijan stresses that reclaiming its territories from Armenia and building new corridors are its legal rights, but regional countries, meanwhile, are warning about its dangerous measures. Iran, concerned about Azerbaijan's moves, has repeatedly warned about Baku adventures in South Caucasus and increased its warning tone in recent weeks. Making it clear that they never tolerate geopolitical changes to the region, the Iranian officials reminded the Azerbaijani leaders of the consequences of implementing this plan to avoid making miscalculated moves. Until recently, the Islamic Republic’s behavior was limited to verbal warnings to Azerbaijan, but with the seriousness of the movements of the northern neighbor in the past weeks and the increasing risk of a new conflict in the South Caucasus, it has also put practical measures on the agenda.
Iran's Islamic Republic Guard Corps (IRGC) ground forces staged ‘Eghtedar Velayat’ military drills with participation of thousands of combat forces in Aras region northwest of the country, telling Baku leaders that Iran is ready for any scenario. Although Iran has always asked the parties in the South Caucasus to refrain from any action that ignites war, at the same time, it has also maintained its military readiness at the highest level so that it can defend the security of its borders in case of unexpected events. Iran considers the conflict in the South Caucasus to be dangerous in the current situation as it can spread to neighboring countries and cause deeper involvement of foreign actors in this crisis. Extra-regional interventions which have no purpose other than fueling the tensions in the region, not only will not help to solve the Karabagh crisis, but also by supporting one of the parties to the conflict, they can intensify the tensions. At the same time of the military excercises, Iran's Foreign Minister Hussein Amir-Abdollahian told his Azerbaijani counterpart that Iran will not tolerate foreign actors on South Caucasus and will respond resolutely.
In addition to military drills, Iran presented political initiatives to prevent a crisis in South Caucasus. On Friday, the first Iranian consulate in southeast Armenia by FM Amir-Abdollahian. At a meeting with his Armenian counterpart, Amir-Abdollahian said that opening the Kapan consulate is a witness to the depth of cooperation between the two countries. Amir-Abdollahian reiterated that Tehran will never tolerate any geopolitical changes in the region and considers them a red line and takes all necessary measures to block such happenings.
Kapan is a part of Karabagh, which Azerbaijan considers to be part of its territory. Therefore, the opening of the Iranian consulate in this town is a kind of recognition of this region as a part of the territory of Armenia by Tehran. By opening the consulate, Iran has made this sensitive region, which Azerbaijan is trying to capture, as an impenetrable and deterrent fortress for its interests, and any attack by Baku's forces is also considered a threat to Iran's interests and red lines. In other words, the consulate is a symbolic measure to prevent a new war in the region.
The Iranian resolution against any geopolitical changes in the region is important from two aspects. In addition to securing its borders to foreign destabilization, Iran intends to kill the war possibility in Karabakh with its military drills and political initiatives, as any new conflict can create a new crisis for regional states. In other words, Iran is both the guarantor of the security of its borders and the guarantor of the security of the borders of the countries in the region and defends their interests as well.
As some observers think, Zangezur corridor will cut Armenia’s access to Aras River basin and thus Iran will be the only country in the southern part of Aras River and Azerbaijan will be in the upper side of the river. Also, separatist conspiracies will threaten Iran's national security if Baku dominates the borders of Iran and Armenia.
Iranian corridors overshadowed by potential Zangezor corridor
The Iranian concerns about Karabakh developments also have commercial aspects. Building Zangezor corridor will overshadow the Black Sea-Persian Gulf corridor that crosses the Iranian and Armenian territories, posing a big threat to the Iranian trade with the other regional states. These land corridors will play an important role in Iran's trade and transit with other Asian and European countries in the future, and therefore Tehran will not allow Azerbaijan to jeopardize Iran's plans by building its own corridor. Also, Azerbaijan's ambitions threaten Iran's North-South Corridor, which has been launched in recent months, and Iran will be have to do business with Armenia and Georgia through Azerbaijan. Nevertheless, the establishment of a consulate in Kapan and the opening of the Armenian consulate in Tabriz in northwestern Iran are aimed at countering threats against these corridors.
From another aspect, the new Azerbaijan-Armenia tensions have provided the West with a proper opportunity to fish in troubled waters. The NATO members, which have been away from Karabakh developments for two decades, these days are establishing a presence under the cover of working out peace in Caucasus to restore their role under Minsk agreements. However, things have changed now and Russia and Azerbaijan are inattentive of the failed Minsk framework. Therefore, as ever and anywhere, the Western presence in Caucasus is aimed at fueling the tensions and stability advocacy is just a cover.
Israelis running rampant in Caucasus
While Turkey and Azerbaijan are pursuing a territory expansion agenda in Caucasus, some foreign parties have active role to destabilize Iran's borders. The Israeli regime, finding Iran its archenemy, has been struggling for 40 years to deal blows to this country, and, therefore, finds closeness to the Iranian borders a great opportunity for its goals to materielize. After the independence of Azerbaijan from the former Soviet Union, by opening their embassy in Baku, the Israelis gradually paved the way for thorough influence in this country, and now they have reached a stage where they claim to have settled tens of thousands of Jews in Azerbaijan. In addition, the economic and military agreements between Israel and Azerbaijan in the past decade have also made a ground for the large-scale Israeli presence near the Iranian borders.
Although the Israeli regime had picked West Asia as the main battleground to deal blows to Iran, it has failed to so so far, and even normalization with Persian Gulf Arab monarchies declined to bring it any closer to its objectives. Azerbaijan is now a new Israeli confrontation ground to watch Iran closely and realize its schemes by destabilizing its borders if the need arises. Driven by the normalization with Tel Aviv, Ankara is assisting the Israelis to get a toehold in Azerbaijan, and due to the strong Baku-Tel Aviv relations, the Israeli regime built an influence in the region sooner than what it was expecting.
