Alwaght - Turkish President, Recep Tayeb Erdogan stressing the need to change the Constitution and government system said: “considering the public opinion at presidential election (Aug 2014), everything should be in line with democracy. In Turkey, word such as republic, democracy, Muslim and secular system, have frequently been exploited by certain groups to protect the political and economic power. Therefore, this system must be changed."
Opposing to such ideas, the leaders of the Turkish opposition parties stated: “the absolute rule of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and Erdogan will come to its end. Due to financial corruption, domestic issues, authoritarianism, inappropriate political and military intervention in other countries, the authority of AKP has been weakened and is about to collapse.”
Erdogan believes that ‘attack is the best defense’ and has leveled defamatory allegations against his opponents. He called the disclosure of his government financial scandal a ‘dirty campaign’ aimed at undermining his government and the progress that the Republic of Turkey has made under his leadership. In this conflict, Erdogan and his party are on the one side whose political roots goes back to the international movement of ‘Muslim Brotherhood’ and ‘National Perspective’ (the late Erbakan). Gülen Movement is on the other side.
Can power game over ‘hidden = parallel government’ in Turkey, overthrow the thirteen-year-old AKP government?
However, Fethullah-chi Group (Gülen Movement) and Erdogan, in recent decade have systematically cooperated to undermine the foundation of Kemalism and Agnosticism, and domination of army and the National Security Organization in the republic of Turkey. In fact, they were the arrowhead of JDP’s several-year fight to marginalize the Turkish army and other elements of the former Kemalist regime. Apparently, Erdogan has come to this conclusion that this duty has been fulfilled and the related issues have been tackled, and it was time to bring it to an end in the social arena of Turkey.
From the perspective of opponents, Erdogan’s political popularity has drastically dropped. His arrogant attitude, imperative tone, aggressive response to protests of the Gazi Park in Istanbul and other social demands of people served to damage his close relations with people and be on the verge of defeat. Now, Erdogan and his party are undermined, and act more cautiously. If Justice and Development Party loses majority in the upcoming parliamentary election of June 7, 2015, it will have to form a coalition with opposition parties, and as a result, Erdogan’s ambition of changing the Constitution and changing the parliamentary system to a presidential one (similar to that of the United States) will be thwarted.
The results of polls conducted in numerous and various centers reveal the realities of the society in Turkey which follows:
A. The Statistical Center of MetroPoll (April and May 2015)
54% the social and economic situation will get worse in the future.
33% the situation would improve.
53% not satisfied with president and prime minister’s approach to management and execution of their duties.
62 to 65% of voters to any party are satisfied with leaders’ management approach.
65% of the participants support current parliamentary system.
32% favor transition to a presidential system.
Percent of votes each part party wins
Justice and Development Party (40.05%), Republican People's Party (28.07%), Nationalist Movement Party (14.04%), the People's Democratic Party (11.05%)
Compared to last parliamentary election, AKP has lost almost 10% of its vote. These are the votes that have no ideological attachment to the party, and due to economic issues, voted for JDP.
B. Euro-Asia center for statistics and research (May 2015)
Which party will you vote for?
Justice and Development Party (38.94%), Republican People’s Party (28.09%), the nationalist movement party (17.61%), People’s Democratic party (11.78%)
Election promises of parties
The participants favor the promises (in percent)
- To reduce the costs of water and electricity bills - 91.1%
- To raise the basic salaries of workers and pensioners - 74.5%
- Interest-free loans for shopkeepers and entrepreneurs- 63.3%
- To write off unpaid loan debts - 62.1%
- New constitution 32.2%
- Presidential system 20.1%
- To build nuclear power plants 15.9%
In addition, 65 to 70 percent of participants believe that the winning parties and upcoming government are able to provide the resources to fulfill their election promises .
C. The average of the last eight surveys of the Turkish polling Centers - (May 2015)
Justice and Development Party (43.25%), People’s Republican Party (26.27%), Nationalist Movement Party (16.36%), the People's Democratic Party (9.43%), National Unity (Felicity Party and Grand Unity Party) 1.03%
Analysis:
A – The results of the parliamentary election will play a significant role in the continuation or cessation of the economic, political projects, and regional and international stance of the Republic of Turkey.
B- Having adopted extreme positions in domestic and foreign policy, the Republic of Turkey is now on the brink of a 2-3 year economic depression. Unemployment has hit more than 6 million people, and more than 17 million people in Turkey live below poverty line. The income of more than 8 million workers in Turkey is less than 1000 Turkish lira. Perhaps the loss of a few percent of the votes, has not made JDP very disappointed, and they are ensured to win the first place, but certainly such a drop in share of vote can thwart Erdogan’s ambition. Decisive victory of JDP desponds on various factors, including People’s Democratic Party not passing the 10% threshold. According to polls about JDP, change in Constitution, transition to presidential system, and the consequences of the upcoming election (the likely failure of the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party to enter the Turkish parliament or rumor about its coalition with the JDP) might have the following consequences:
- It may stir up the Kurds and Shiites, and create tension and polarization in Turkey.
- The ruling wing may decide to continue the armed conflict with the PKK, adventurism in the region, and to precipitate crisis abroad.
C – The opposition parties have seriously criticized the JDP for posing obstacles such as: to set restrictions on election advertisements of opposition parties, to exploit religious sentiments of the people, to establish a broad and powerful media network for JDP which have benefited from the central government budget, to put in tender the right of live broadcasting of the election results, and not to maintain neutrality in the election campaigns.
D. Holding the anniversary ceremony for the Conquest of Istanbul, a symbol of Ottomanism Project, and taking stance against the anniversary of the execution of ‘Adnan Menderes’ popular Turkish President of the 1950’s were among the measures that helped JDP to recover its Ottomanism position among people.
E- The disclosure of pictures of weapons being sent from Turkey, by trucks belonging to National Intelligence Organization of Turkey, while Erdogan and Daoud Oglu claimed that those weapons were sent to defend Turkmen, called into question his peace claims in the face of domestic and international human rights groups. The leaders of the opposition parties condemned the move, so that they can challenge the government’s measure in public and make maximum political use of the situation.
F- Considering the authority and capabilities of the ruling JDP, illegal interventions of the President, and not maintaining neutrality in the election campaigns, some sources speculate that government is likely to manipulate the election results.
