Alwaght- As the talks about establishing a no-fly zone this time in southern Syria heat up these days, some political circles have said that the US and Russia have reached an agreement on the case. But the substantiality of such news is subject to doubts. Should this plan implemented on the ground, the Syrian crisis must witness a qualitative transformation. There are a couple of points concerning the issue:
1. It has been long since the West has set on the agenda the plan of establishing no-fly zone in Syria, however, in practice it has failed to realize the plan. The design has lost its possibility of implementation following triumphant Operation Nasr launched by the Syrian army and allies in Aleppo’s western areas. Thereby, proposing establishment of a similar area but this time in southern Syria comes with the aim of securing an alternative plan to create battlefield capacities for directing the Syrian conflict. The intended region covers three provinces of Quneitra, Daraa and Sweida. They cover an area of 10,480 square kilometers, the size of the neighboring Lebanon. The three provinces are home for nearly two million people.
The region is of significance for two reasons: First, the region is located next to the Palestinian occupied territories. Second, the area is close to the Syrian capital Damascus. Therefore, establishing a no-fly zone in Syria’s south would have a strategic value, though not as significant as Aleppo region.
2. The proposal for establishing a no-fly zone in southern Syria is a devilish US plot. Based on the emerging reports, the American officials in their meeting with the Russian foreign ministry’s authorities have pretended that the major aim behind establishing the closed area in Syria’s south is to ensure the Israeli security, and that the plan would pose no threats to Damascus and Moscow’s friend government in Damascus.
The Americans are well aware that Russia has been one of the major hindrances ahead of establishment of failed no-fly or secure zone in northern Syria with Aleppo as the epicenter, and it was with Moscow’s backing that the resistance camp has gained control of strategic positions in Aleppo province.
Two major factors pushed Russia to come against the no-fly zone in northern Syria. The first was the risky nature of the plan for the government of Damascus and the second factor was Russia’s sensitivity over Turkey. In the negotiations, the Americans have purported that the no-fly zone scheme in southern Syria was essentially different from the plan which was sought in the country’s north while in fact there is no difference in the nature of the intended objectives in the plans for both areas.
The evidences suggest that the southern front’s developments have not negatively affected the security of the Israeli regimes. Actually, the Israeli media reports note that during the past 50 years- since the ceasefire reached after the six-day war of 1967 between Damascus and Tel Aviv- Syria has been more committed to the truce’s terms than has the Israeli regime. The Israeli regime captured 80 percent of Syria’s Quneitra province but during all these years the Syrian government has made no moves to recapture the occupied parts of its soil, which are the Golan Heights and Jabal al-Sheikh.
Commitment to the terms of truce have even been considered by Lebanon’s Hezbollah, the Syrian government’s ally. For example on January 18, 2015, the Israeli army targeted a Hezbollah force which was busy designing an anti-terrorists assault in an area known as Mazraat Amal area in Quneitra district but the Lebanese resistant group did not respond at the scene, instead, it carried out an anti-Israeli operation from Lebanon’s territory. If it is claimed that the threats to the Israeli regime do not only come from Hezbollah and such terror groups as al-Nusra Front are also presenting threats to Tel Aviv, this must be a wrong allegation because the evidences published by ISIS terror group’s leaders assert that the Israeli intelligence agencies and al-Nusra Front terror group had reached an accord to keep the Israeli borders safe.
Also, there are many photos which document that the al-Nusra’s wounded fighters receive medical treatments in the northern Israeli hospitals. Therefore, the goal behind establishing a no-fly zone in Syria’s south is not to address the Israeli security concerns.
3. Washington would use long-term Israeli-Russian ties to have its major impact. The US well knows that while Moscow does not care so much about reduced level of diplomatic relations with Ankara, it considers preserving its conventional ties with Tel Aviv as of great significance for its interests. Through its links to the Jewish network, the Israeli regime could affect Russia. This is coming while Moscow’s officials are aware of the discriminations by the Israeli leaders. The figures suggest that nearly two million people of Russian descents are living in the occupied Palestinian territories and under the Israeli rule while a majority of the originally Russian citizens are considered foreigners in the occupied territories.
Meanwhile, supposing that Moscow-Tel Aviv ties could regulate and value Moscow’s relations with the Arabs, Russia have always attempted to take advantage of this card.
4. Syria’s southern region has essential and major differences with north. Should the US succeeds in putting the southern provinces under a no-fly-zone coverage, it would reduce the number of active players in this area, and thus, with major rivals removed, it is easy to manage the case of the area. Moving the no-fly zone scheme to south would mean getting rid of involvement of Turkey, the Kurds, ISIS and the Alawites. The country’s south from deferent dimensions is linked to the Arab camp and non-Arabs are not inhabiting the area. Thereby, eliminating the non-Arabs from the process of security developments would pave the way further for manipulating the case of conflict in Syria.
5. The timing of the plan for no-fly zone has its own significance. The Israelis are severely horrified by the Syrian army’s Operation Nasr which reached a favorable juncture almost a month ago. It was because of this triumph that the Israeli regime has refused that the security case be concluded while President Bashar al-Assad emerging a winner. In fact, the Americans are trying to relocate the threat while keeping the very threat in existence. But there are doubts on whether the Americans are capable of actively and concretely implementing the no-fly zone plan on the ground in the country’s south. In the initial blueprint, the US has touched upon the role played by some countries, and specifically Jordan. The details suggest that Washington seeks entrusting the secured area to Jordan at the end of the road, and allow Tel Aviv and Amman be responsible to its political and security arrangements based on the two governments’ agreements.
Let’s envision this plan’s consequences: Tel Aviv annexes 10,000 square kilometers of Syrian territory, which means the Israeli regime grows bigger once again after 50 years of the last Israeli-Syrian war. As a matter of fact, everybody knows that engaging Jordan in this scheme comes with the intention of diverting the Muslim and Arab world’s public opinions, and in fact the Israeli regime is the linchpin of this mission and it would take the profits at the end.
6. But just unlike what Pentagon’s officials think, it is not that easy to establish a no-fly zone over southern Syria. Though the Russian objection has been influential in preventing establishment of a no-fly zone in northern Syria, Iran’s and the allied regional forces’ opposition has been the major hurdle ahead of implementation of the plan in northern Syria. Therefore, having Tehran’s serious opposition to the plan in mind, establishing the safe zone in south would be a failure. On the other side, the Jordanians are uninterested to step in Syria’s security case. They have informed the Syrian officials of their position on the case in different situations. The Axis of Resistance sees the no-fly zone as a plot, and thus it has braced for thwarting it in advance. The Russians must know that there is no difference in the nature of southern and northern no-fly zone plans as both aim at removing Assad’s legitimate government through launching joint operations.
