Alwaght- In recent years, the Saudi relations with Lebanon have witnessed many ups and downs; from the downgrading diplomatic relations to cutting off trade ties and limiting the financial aid all have harmed the mutual trust and undermined the historical relationship between the two countries. However, given the regional developments, Riyadh is set to return to Lebanon to mend its image among the Lebanese and play a more effective role in the nation's developments. The reports on this Saudi intention have grabbed the attention of the Lebanese media and officials.
A senior Saudi official has told Reuters that Riyadh is preparing imminent measures to boost trade with Beirut, in the first tangible step to mend relations.
The official stated that a Saudi delegation will soon travel to Beirut for talks aimed at removing barriers to Lebanese exports to the kingdom. This move comes after Lebanon's President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam publicly urged Saudi Arabia to reconsider its policies towards their country.
"We believe the time is right, and we are awaiting action from Saudi Arabia," Aoun said. "I have repeatedly stressed that support for Lebanon must come from the Arab nations around us."
The move follows a devastating trade ban Saudi Arabia imposed in 2021. At the time, Riyadh halted all Lebanese imports, citing the seizure of Captagon drug shipments originating from Lebanon and Syria. The decision crippled a key lifeline for Lebanon's economy, which has been reeling from a severe financial crisis since 2019, and severely disrupted its agricultural exports to vital Gulf markets. Riyadh now views lifting these import restrictions as the first concrete sign of a diplomatic thaw.
Push to impair Hezbollah using trade and economy
The Saudi return to Lebanon comes as the US special envoy Tom Barrack in recent months has presented several plans to the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah and ensure security of the Israeli regime. These plans, predominantly serving the Israeli interests, have met opposition from Beirut and Hezbollah officials. So, the new Saudi steps are part of the American strategy to pave the way for Hezbollah disarming.
Saudi Arabia's new policy comes as Lebanon, following two years of conflict with the Israeli regime, is experiencing a more critical situation. Despite the ceasefire, the shadow of war continues to loom over the country. In this environment, Hezbollah's weapons stand as the sole deterrent preventing the Israeli enemy, which Riyadh and Washington seek to disarm, from taking further action.
Repeated violations of the ceasefire by the Israeli army during disarmament negotiations have demonstrated that even a potential agreement would not end the threats. The Lebanese people and politicians have come to believe that disarming Hezbollah would eliminate a powerful force capable of defending the Lebanese entity and its territory. Consequently, the commander of the Lebanese army, stating that the Israelis do not honor their commitments, has called for an end to the army's exclusive responsibility for securing the Litani River.
Within this context, Saudi Arabia is deceptively using the pretext of supporting and strengthening the Lebanese army against Tel Aviv's threats to increase its influence within Lebanon's political and military structures. This maneuver aims to pave the way for the disarmament of Hezbollah.
Political initiative to sideline Hezbollah
Hezbollah's highlighted presence in the country's political structure, which has the alignment of the people, is one of the main concerns of its enemies. Saudi Arabia is counting on the Lebanese expatriates to curb this Hezbollah influence.
In a recent statement, Saudi Arabia's foreign ministry announced that 55,548 Lebanese expatriates have registered to vote in the upcoming parliamentary elections, with their votes distributed across Lebanese embassies and consulates worldwide.
According to the Saudi data, France hosts the largest share of the registered Lebanese diaspora, followed by Germany, Canada, the US, Australia, the UAE, Ivory Coast, and Saudi Arabia itself.
While Saudi officials appear to emphasize that most expatriates reside in Western nations, potentially to downplay the disruptive nature of their own regional policies, evidence confirms the kingdom remains a key hub for Lebanese nationals in the region. Other Persian Gulf monarchies also host tens of thousands of Lebanese residents, a significant and politically relevant demographic.
Consequently, Saudi Arabia and its allied Persian Gulf states are now leveraging their vast financial resources and Western political backing to mobilize the diaspora in support of political blocs aligned with their interests. Under Riyadh's envisioned scenario, engineering the entry of these political forces into the next parliament would serve a central purpose: to promote a narrative that Hezbollah is losing its former popularity. This framework is ultimately designed to pave the way for the gradual erosion of the Hezbollah's political and social standing. In the calculus of Saudi strategists, such a shift could decisively tilt Lebanon's balance of power in favor of their allies.
Riyadh’s challenge to strengthen Lebanese army
By providing military aid to the Lebanese army, the Arab kingdom wants to paint the Lebanese army as powerful and ready to undertake protection of the country against the Israeli threats. However, the reality is that the Lebanese army lacks the sufficient weapons and equipment to do this vital job and even in case of receiving relative support from Riyadh, it will not have the necessary deterrence. To counter Israeli threats, it needs to recruit thousands of new forces and to buy advanced weapons, something that will take billion of dollars.
Saudi Arabia's diplomatic push unfolds against a backdrop of unrelenting Israeli hostilities. Israel has shown no genuine intent for a permanent ceasefire with Lebanon, having violated the truce over ten thousand times in the past year and conducting hundreds of airstrikes in southern Lebanon. Simultaneously, the regime has initiated territorial encroachment. UNIFIL confirmed in a statement that in October, peacekeepers inspected a concrete, T-shaped wall built by the Israeli occupation army southwest of the town of Yaroun. This structure crosses the Blue Line, making more than 4,000 square meters of Lebanese land inaccessible. Furthermore, the Zionist settler movement "Uri Tsafon" has brazenly advertised lands and properties in southern Lebanon for sale, aiming to establish new Israeli settlements.
Beyond this aggressive regional context, Saudi Arabia's own capacity to finance and arm the Lebanese army is increasingly in doubt. The monarchy is grappling with severe internal economic challenges, which have forced a reevaluation and scaling back of mega-projects like NEOM and its Vision 2030. Given these financial headwinds, Riyadh's ability to deliver substantial aid, particularly for reconstruction, remains highly questionable.
A fundamental contradiction also lies at the heart of Saudi policy: While proposing to equip the Lebanese army to counter threats from Tel Aviv, Riyadh is simultaneously pursuing a normalization track with the very same Zionist regime. This duality suggests it is unlikely to take any action that would genuinely jeopardize its relationship with Tel Aviv.
Therefore, Saudi Arabia's economic initiatives and promotional pledges in Lebanon can be seen as a strategy of "selling future, a public deception designed to create an illusion of support. While packaged as being for the benefit of the Lebanese people, these moves constitute a calculated effort to undermine Hezbollah and cement the strategic interests of Riyadh and the West within Lebanon's political and security landscape.
Countering Iran's influence
By pretending to back the Lebanese government and pushing forward plans to undermine Hezbollah, Riyadh and its allies are working to check the Iranian influence in Lebanon.
One of the key instruments in this path is strengthening of the Lebanese army to act as a dependent force. Their ultimate aim is to limit Iranian options in Lebanon and to prevent direct threats to the Israeli regime.
This strategy has been followed more seriously after Israeli war against Iran in June. They think that with renewed tensions between Israel and Iran, Lebanon would act as a launching pad for anti-Israeli actions and so endanger security of the occupied territories.
