Alwaght- In the largely tumultuous geopolitical scene of today, Turkey as an active actor with lofty ambitions has drawn a new roadmap to expand its influence from Eastern Mediterranean to the heart of the Indian Subcontinent, with the main goal being re-definition of the Turkish role as a determining power in a vast part of Eurasia.
The recent developments, especially the unprecedented deepening of the relations with Pakistan and the push to define and create a pivotal role in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan has raised a question: Is Ankara building a new and distinct geopolitical axis?
In a recent strategic push, Turkey hosted Taliban-Pakistan peace talks in Istanbul. Although the negotiations ended with no tangible results and both sides declared them a failure, Ankara still sees value in both sides accepting its role as a facilitor of peace.
Roots and foundations of convergence: From bilateral ties to regional networking
While long rooted in historical and religious bonds, Turkish-Pakistsni ties have gained a starkly strategic and multi-dimensional quality over the last two decades, particularly under the leadership of Recep Tayyip Erdogan. This evolution has moved beyond politics, crystallizing most clearly in the realm of military and defense cooperation.
Collaboration on producing and developing defense equipment, including the advanced "Bayraktar" drones, which Pakistan has purchased and deployed extensively, marks a shift from a symbolic relationship to an operational partnership. This level of defense cooperation has enabled Pakistan to partially distance itself from exclusive reliance on traditional partners like the United States and even China, thereby broadening its range of strategic choices.
In turn, Turkey is building its indigenous missile capability, an effort that appears to be proceeding with support from Islamabad.
Politically, the growing convergence between Ankara and Islamabad on sensitive regional issues such as Kashmir and Palestine, coupled with their sharply critical stances toward the policies of India and the Israeli regime, signals a joint effort by the two countries to present an alternative for leadership in the Muslim world, countering the bloc of Arab states led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Additionally, with a long-term vision, Turkey sees Pakistan as a vital gateway for accessing the massive markets of the Indian subcontinent and as a connective loop linking the Turkic World with China's Belt and Road Initiative. From this perspective, upgrading relations with Islamabad is not merely a political choice, but a geo-economic necessity for Turkey within the grand map of Eurasian connectivity.
In this landscape, Azerbaijan acts as the third side of this strategic triangle, fulfilling the role of a geopolitical linchpin. Baku's victory in the Nagorno-Karabakh war, backed by unwavering military and intelligence support from Turkey and explicit political support from Pakistan, solidified the foundations of a trilateral axis. Joint military exercises dubbed "Three Brothers" are the tangible manifestation of this security alignment. More recently, the choice of Baku as the meeting place for the leaders of Turkey and Pakistan is both symbolic and geopolitically significant. Baku is not only a symbol of a Pan-Turkic victory under Turkish leadership but also a stage for displaying strategic solidarity against players this axis views as rivals. This includes Iran, which is sensitive to Turkey's growing presence in the Caucasus, and India, which has close ties with Armenia and competes with Pakistan to expand its influence in Central Asia and over regional transit and energy routes. This tripartite axis is creating a network of cooperation that starts in the South Caucasus, stretches through Afghanistan, connects to Pakistan, and ultimately reaches the warm waters of the Indian Ocean.
Afghanistan, the test stage and field of influence
Afghanistans developments after the US withdrawal in August 2021 have been a testing ground to measure the influence and diplomatic strength of Ankara in South Asia. By maintaining diplomatic presence in Kabul, Ankara has shown an exception among the NATO members, signaling its resolve to keep involved in the Afghanistan’s equations. Turkey's mediation in hosting talks between the Taliban and Pakistan is a strategic move, showcasing Ankara's diplomatic maturity. Leveraging its working relations with both parties, Turkey enjoys a relative advantage; even a major power like China lacks such direct access to all Taliban factions due to historical and ideological constraints. This position enables Turkey not only to help resolve border and security disputes between Pakistan and the Taliban but also to cement its role as an influential actor in Afghanistan’s future.
This meditory role is also part of Turkey’s broader competition with Qatar and the UAE for influence within the Taliban. While Doha has long been the primary channel for engagement with the group, Ankara is determined to break this monopoly and expand its own sway in Kabul’s power structure. On the other hand, the UAE, using economic and security tools, is steadily increasing its influence across South Asia and even into the Caucasus and Central Asia. Turkey views an active presence in Afghanistan as a strategy to counter this expanding influence. From a broader perspective, Afghanistan represents more than a security challenge for Turkey; it is a geopolitical bridge to Central Asia. Ankara envisions activating trade corridors that start in the Caucasus, cross Afghan territory, and link up with infrastructure projects in Pakistan to reach the ports of the Makran coast. Such a roadmap would significantly bolster Turkey’s position as the Eurasia connection hub.
Emerging networking-oriented nature and strategic drivers of Turkey
The in-the-making axis led by Turkey cannot be gauged by union criteria like those of the European Union or the (Persian) Gulf Cooperation Council. Actually, its nature is more like a networking coalition; unofficial, flexible, and lacking complex institutional structure, while highly pragmatic and based on immediate common interests. This network rests on several core pillars: deep defense cooperation, political alignment on key regional dossiers, a shared approach toward India as a geopolitical rival, competition with the influence of the UAE and Saudi Arabia, and a concerted effort to manage developments in Afghanistan.
Turkey's driving forces for investing in this axis are multifaceted:
First is its relentless pursuit of a leadership role in the Muslim world; a role Ankara believes it is uniquely qualified to assume.
Second is gaining access to new markets in South and Central Asia for its defense and construction industries, which are powerful engines of the Turkish economy.
Third is establishing an effective counterbalance to the strengthening India-Israel-UAE axis, which is increasingly expanding along the eastern and southern shores of the Arab world.
Fourth is crafting new leverage against its Western allies in NATO. Holding influence in critical regions like Afghanistan and Pakistan enhances Turkey's geopolitical brand and bargaining power in international negotiations.
Finally, by solidifying its role in Central Asia, the homeland of Turkic people's, via influence in Afghanistan and dominance in the Caucasus, Ankara is realizing the long-held ambition of Pan-Turkism in a modern, pragmatic form.
Limits and challenges ahead
Despite these promising trends, formation of a full axis has some structural barriers ahead. Deep dependence of Pakistan on China is the biggest challenge. Islamabad cannot and will never want to replace strategic partnership with China with cooperation with Turkey. China, on the other side, may oppose Turkey gaining influence in the China-Pakistsn Economic Corridor project which is part of the broader Road and Belt Initiative as it does not want to share this vital megaproject with any party.
In Afghanistan,the inherent instability of the Taliban government and its lack of a coherent governance structure pose a high risk to any long-term foreign investment, including Turkey's. Ankara cannot realistically build its grand geopolitical roadmap upon a government that lacks both internal stability and international legitimacy.
The sensitivity of Iran,a powerful neighbor to this emerging axis, cannot be overlooked. Tehran is watching with concern as a corridor spearheaded by its traditional rivals takes shape along its northern borders.
Furthermore,India's growing economic and military power makes any explicit anti-India axis prohibitively expensive for its members. New Delhi possesses a potent toolkit, economic, diplomatic, and security-related, to respond, particularly in the Persian Gulf, a region that is a vital source of energy and employment for both Pakistan and Turkey.
Finally, Arab states led by the UAE and Saudi Arabia, long opposed to Turkey's hegemonic ambitions in the Muslim world, will leverage their financial muscle and political influence in key capitals to counter this nascent axis. In a stark demonstration of this counter-strategy, Saudi Arabia recently signed a comprehensive security and military cooperation agreement with Islamabad. Crucially, this pact extends the shadow of Pakistan's nuclear umbrella to Riyadh, revealing a form of alliance-building that is, in practical terms, more robust than Turkey's current model.
Conclusion
Given these variables, we can conclude that Turkey is actively engaged in building a new geopolitical axis. The core of this axis is made up of the strategic cooperation of Turkey and Pakistan, with Azerbaijan as its linking ring and Afghanistan as its testing ground. Turkey's ultimate objective is to forge a continuous arc of influence, stretching from the Balkans and the Caucasus, traversing Afghanistan and Pakistan, and reaching the Indian Ocean. The success or failure of this ambitious project hinges not only on Ankara's diplomatic skill but also on its ability to navigate competition with powers like China, India, Iran, and the Arab bloc, while simultaneously finding a path through the quagmire of instability in Afghanistan. Anyway, the very effort for realization of this plan shows that Turkey is bracing for play in the league of geopolitical giants of Eurasia and is willing to redefine the regional order not based on the old models but on the novel ones.
