Alwaght- With just a week left until Iraq’s parliamentary elections on November 10, all eyes are on Baghdad, where political factions are locked in an intense showdown. The capital has become the main battleground and whoever wins this city is widely expected to dominate the entire parliament.
In this vote, the Iraqis are going to elect 329 members for the new parliament and meanwhile Baghdad has a pivotal place.
Under the new election law amendments, Iraq will use the proportional representation system known as the Sainte-Laguë method, a system that treats each province as an independent electoral district. Within this framework, Baghdad holds the largest share with 71 parliamentary seats, accounting for more than one-fifth of the total. This makes the race for the capital’s seats a decisive factor in shaping the majority coalition and ultimately determining the next prime minister.
That is why big parties and main coalitions in recent weeks have focused on Baghdad and, mobilizing their media and field presence, they are working to attract the vote of the residents of the capital city. In fact, winning Baghdad is not just an election victory, it means securing the superior position in Iraq's politics and will determine the fate of the next government.
Giants in Baghdad battle
A notable feature of this election is the presence of national leaders and influential figures on Baghdad's candidate lists. Unlike previous years, political factions have entered the race leveraging their full political capital, and the participation of well-known Iraqi politicians has added significant intensity to the Baghdad campaign.
In the Sunni camp, Mohammed al-Halbousi, the former parliament speaker and leader of the Al-Taqaddum Coalition, remains a central player. Relying on his parliamentary experience and extensive political network, he is working to unite Sunni votes in Baghdad and solidify his position as the community's uncontested leader. However, the emergence of multiple Sunni lists—including the Al-Siyada Coalition led by prominent businessman Khamis al-Khanjar and the Al-Azm Coalition led by Muthanna al-Samarrai, alongside independent lists—has fragmented the vote. This division could ultimately benefit more cohesive and powerful blocs, particularly the Shiite factions.
The competition is more complex and decisive on the Shiite front. The race includes prominent leaders such as current Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani with the State of Reconstruction and Development Coalition, Nouri al-Maliki with the State of Law Coalition, Ammar al-Hakim with the Al-Hikma Movement, and the independent list of Hadi al-Amiri, representing the political wing of the Badr Organization. For these forces, Baghdad is not just a contest for parliamentary seats but a crucial test of their political and popular influence. Any victory or defeat in the capital will have a direct impact on the national balance of power.
Alongside these traditional powerbrokers, independent parties and local lists have also joined the race. Although these groups are fragmented and less prominent, they could play a decisive role in specific districts of Baghdad. Consequently, this diversity of lists and multi-layered competition has turned the capital's electoral scene into a microcosm of the entire country, where Iraq's ethnic, religious, and political diversity is reflected in its smallest neighborhoods, dynamic that could shape influential political developments.
Sadrist Movement, the unsettled challenge
While a majority of the Iraqi cities these days have been covered by a climate of elections and posters of candidates, Baghdad's Sadr City lacks this heated atmosphere. Not only there are no election campaigns, but also there are opposite campaigns that give the east of the capital a meaningful spirit.
The Sadr City, the socio-political bastion of supporters for the Sadrist movement, is a key and influential constituency in Iraqi elections. According to the Independent High Electoral Commission, the Al-Rusafa district, which contains Sadr City in its east, holds the largest number of registered voters of any province in the country.
This predominantly Shiite area boasts an estimated 2.3 million eligible voters. In contrast, the largely Sunni Al-Karkh neighborhood on the capital's western side houses around 1.9 million voters. This statistical gap underscores Sadr City's decisive role in shaping the final results for Baghdad and, by extension, the composition of Iraq's entire parliament.
The reason for this subdued and stagnant atmosphere in Sadr City lies in the complete absence of candidates affiliated with the movement led by Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr from the upcoming ballot. The lack of figures from this movement, which has always played a prominent role among local residents, has caused campaign fervor to dissipate. An air of boycott and silence has replaced the area's usual electoral excitement.
Al-Sadr, whose hardline stances and surprise decisions have repeatedly destabilized Iraq's political landscape in recent years, has once again chosen a different path. Just one week before the election, he announced a boycott of the vote in a message on X, stating: "I know with full certainty that the decision to boycott is a difficult and heavy step for many people, but the homeland is more precious than to be sold to the corrupt and subservient lackeys."
Given his position and the absence of his movement's candidates from this pivotal election, a segment of his popular base now faces confusion. This boycott is also poised to impact overall voter turnout in Baghdad, as the participation, or absence, of al-Sadr's supporters has always been a decisive factor in final election results. Consequently, the Sadrist Movement's non-participation and the potential subsequent drop in votes from the Baghdad electorate could dramatically alter the distribution of parliamentary seats.
Experience of Iraqi election has shown that any tensions in the capital, particularly in Sadr City, will overshadow the whole voting process. So, if Sadrists want to protest on the election day or disrupt the voting operation, the political climate of the city will be security-obsessed. Though Baghdad police said it has no plans to announce restrictions on movement,things can develop fast should insecurity breaks out. In such a situation, the security forces will massively deploy in the streets and the city will take a military base. This will not only hit the turnout rate, but also disrupt the capital's calm.
Strategic significance of Baghdad election
The Baghdad election is critically important because the MPs elected do not merely speak for the capital. They wield major influence in pivotal national decisions, such as selecting the president and PM. Therefore, if a single coalition can secure a decisive victory in Baghdad, it will gain significantly more leverage and a larger share of power in the inevitable post-election negotiations to form a government. This advantage becomes even more crucial if the resulting parliament is fragmented, with no single bloc holding an absolute majority.
On the other hand, the outcome in Baghdad will serve as a clear indicator of the political balance of power, drawing a line between coalitions that support a strong central government and those aligned with foreign powers. In essence, the final tally of the capital's seats will reveal which faction enjoys greater popular support and, ultimately, which one will have the power to steer Iraq's domestic and foreign policy.
In terms of political legitimacy and public message, higher or lower turnout in Baghdad can indicate the grade of people's trust in the electoral system. Political heat can spread nationwide and stir a wave of hope and high turnout rates. But chilly electoral atmosphere in the capital can export a shadow of distrust and unwillingness to other regions of the country.
