Alwaght- While the new round of Istanbul talks between Russia and Ukraine and with the presence of international mediators is to start today to discuss a ceasefire and prisoner swap deal, the shadow of intensification of fighting and the division between Western backers of Kiev has pushed the result of this round of negotiation in mystery.
Only hours before the start of the talks, the Ukrainians dealt a big blow to the Russians in a surprise attack. Kiev announced on Sunday that it hit the Belaya air base north of the Siberian city of Irkutsk, which houses Russia's nuclear bombers, with a drone strike, destroying a large number of these strategic aircraft. The release of images of the attack and the widespread circulation of the Russian strategic bombers on fire on Western media were even more significant than the incident itself, something that will heat up war and cool down the negotiating table on the eve of negotiations.
A Ukrainian intelligence source claimed that the Ukrainian home security organization (SBU) launched the drone attack under Operation Spider Web against over 40 Russian military aircraft, destroying part of the Russian air strength. The source said the targeted aircraft included Tu-95 and Tu-22 strategic bombers, which Russia uses to launch long-range missiles into Ukraine. Kiev claims the attack was planned 18 months ago and was launched at the right time by placing drones inside trucks.
Russian officials have also confirmed the attacks on four of their bases, without mentioning Ukraine by name. Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the perpetrators of the attacks have "signed their own death warrants" and that there would be "no more red lines." Vladimir Medinsky, the head of the Russian negotiating team who has traveled to Istanbul, told reporters to wait until tomorrow. It seems that Russia is waiting for the results of today's Istanbul meeting to make a final decision on how to respond to the Ukrainian attacks.
Long distance between Russian and Ukraine stances in talks
The drone attack of Ukraine came as the two countries after several rounds of talks are still at loggerheads over war developments.
Ukrainian officials, particularly President Volodymyr Zelensky, have repeatedly stressed that no sustainable solution is conceivable without the full return of the occupied territories. Kiev also wants international security guarantees and immediate membership in NATO, an issue that is considered a red line for Moscow. Even after the Istanbul talks, Zelensky called for increased Western pressure on Moscow to back down.
Russian officials over and over have stated that any peace agreement must recognize “new realities on the ground,” an apparent reference to Russian-controlled areas in eastern Ukraine and Crimea. “Negotiations that ignore new geopolitical realities are simply a repetition of a deception,” Putin recently said. The Russians have warned the West that it is impossible to negotiate on the one hand and arm Ukraine with Western weapons on the other.
Some Western sources reported that Ukraine is proposing a roadmap in the Istanbul talks that would begin with a complete ceasefire for at least 30 days, followed by the return of all prisoners of war on both sides, as well as the return of Ukrainian children transferred to Russian-controlled areas. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in recent remarks that Moscow has prepared a list of critical issues in the ongoing war to be raised in the Istanbul talks.
Divided Western front
The new round is starting in Istanbul as gap between the European and American approaches to war has reached its peak, leaving impacts on the political process.
While the Trump administration has used the leverage of military and political aid cuts to pressure Zelensky to negotiate, Europe, particularly Germany, France, and Poland, has stepped up its financial and military support for Kiev in recent months.
The Europeans have sent new aid packages to Ukraine in the past two months, including advanced drones, long-range missiles, and fourth-generation fighter jets. During Zelensky’s visit to Berlin last week, Germany agreed to provide Kiev with a new €5 billion aid package, as well as the joint production of long-range weapons systems in Ukraine. Europe has even recently authorized the use of long-range missiles to strike deep into Russia, which conflicts with the White House’s plans to strengthen the political process.
The authorization to use American long-range missiles is worrisome for Russian military officials. Many of Russia’s strategic facilities and defense industries, previously relocated to the east of the country to avoid Ukrainian missile strikes, are now under threat. This puts Russia’s logistical infrastructure and weapons production at serious risk.
There is a growing perception that Ukraine, by relying more on European support, is effectively distancing itself from Washington’s dictates and is less willing to compromise its maximum demands in negotiations. With the prospect of European military support replacing American, Kiev’s hopes of regaining lost territory through continued fighting are likely to be renewed.
Accordingly, Berlin’s clearing of deployment of long-range Taurus KEPD 350 cruise missiles prompted Keith Kluge, Trump’s special envoy to Ukraine, to take a stand against Europe.
"He (Putin) sees this as a proxy war on behalf of NATO, and frankly, he’s right in a way,” Kluge said. “I mean, look at the support and assistance from European countries. Obviously, Putin sees that support.”
Trump had repeatedly promised that he could end the war in 24 hours, a promise that some analysts interpreted as a reduction or cutoff of military aid to Ukraine, and in practice, some US military packages were delayed due to budget disputes. Trump even launched strong verbal attacks on Zelensky, calling his administration illegitimate and opposed to the popular will of Ukrainians to stop the war.
As a result, these stances have reduced the US role in pressuring for compromise and has made the diplomatic environment more complex, as Russia may conclude that the military path, not negotiations, remains the only effective option.
Trump-Putin honeymoon ends
Amid the Zelensky's growing defiance of the White House, rise of signs of Trump's return to Biden's path and the possibility of end of the short period of Washington's de-escalation with Moscow have caused the second round of Istanbul peace talks to be predicted as less prosperous than first round and also Riyadh talks.
On Tuesday, Trump in an unprecedented tone attacked the Kremlin and lashed out at its unwillingness to talk ceasefire. In one of his strongest broadsides ever made against Putin, Trump said "he is playing with fire." While Moscow had earlier described Trump's non-interventionist approach as a chance for a peace deal with Ukraine, Kiev’s military escalation has weakened this picture.
In general, we should say that recent Ukrainian attack served as a lever to increase pressure for a stronger hand on the negotiating table. But risk of an escalation and entry into a heated retaliation cycle looks more likely than ever. Observers warn that if the escalation drags on, hopes of a ceasefire fade and talks will reach a stalemate again.
