Alwaght- The announcement of official dissolution of Turkey's Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) has focused the eyes on the developments in Iraq. Before this and in the past 10 years, the Turkish military bombed northern Iraq under the excuse of activity of the PKK militants. Now a question presents itself: Will Turkey continue its military operations in Iraq's north after the PKK dissolution?
Where in Iraq is PKK active?
According to Arab sources, the PKK in Iraq is active in an area of over 4,000 square kilometers. Since 1984, small groups of PKK emerged inside Iraq, especially in the Qandil Mountains located at the border triangle of Iraq, Turkey, and Iran. However, the Kurdish presence in this region grew after Saddam's invasion of Kuwait in 1990. After American invasion of Iraq in 2003, some cities and regions in northern Iraq became strongholds of the PKK. The Turkish army until 2013 penetrated Iraq's depth, setting up over 30 military bases and posts on the Iraqi soil. These bases are illegal and have drawn the opposition of the Iraqi government.
After seizure of large tracts of Iraqi territories by ISIS terrorists in 2014, the PKK broadened its presence to Sinjar, Makhmour, Zummar, and Kirkuk to protect the Yazidi minority and Kurds, expanding its areas of activity to over 4,000 square kilometers.
The most prominent PKK bases in Iraq include the Qandil Mountains, the Sidiqan and Soran regions, Zab, Zakho, Amadiyah, Kani Masi, Haft Nin, Kara, Matin, Zummar and Makhmour, Sinuni and Fish Khabur in Dohuk, Erbil, Sulaymaniyah and Nineveh.
The total number of PKK armed members is currently estimated to be over 6,000, although there are no exact figures.
In 2016, the militant group established its local branches in the city of Sinjar 110 kilometers west of Mosul, which are militias composed of Iraqi Yazidis and other Kurds. The most prominent of these groups are the Sinjar Protection Units, known locally as the Yazidi militia. Most of them are said to be active in Sinjar and its surroundings.
Turkish presence in Iraq in figures
Iraq has never approved of the Turkish military presence on its soil and called for their withdrawal from the north. But Ankara, instead, broadened its areas of operation under the excuse of PKK posing threat to it.
According to Al-Arabi Al-Jadeed, the number of the Turkish bases inside Iraq reaches 80. Also, over 5,000 troops are deployed on the Iraqi soil. The most prominent Turkish military bases in Iraq include Bashiqa Camp, Al-Zab, Metin, Soran, and an old airstrip on the outskirts of Dohuk, which Turkish forces have been converting into a military base since 2018. At the same time, sources close to Ankara government have put the number of Turkish military bases in northern Iraq at much lower than 80, and at most 20. It should also be noted that the first Turkish military base was established inside Iraq in 1992.
All of these bases are located more than 30 kilometers deep inside Iraqi territory. A New Arab network report indicates that Turkish intelligence activity extends to a radius of 50 kilometers of Iraq, especially in areas near Sulaymaniyah. Ankara claims that it is stationed in Iraq defensively and refuses to withdraw, citing what it calls its right to repel attacks by the PKK from Iraq, although Iraq has repeatedly complained to the UN about Turkey's military presence.
Essam al-Faili, a professor of international relations in Baghdad, believes that Turkey will not withdraw from Iraqi territory under any circumstances, because it considers its presence there to be part of a historical right related to its claim to ownership of Mosul province. Ankara also sees its presence as part of its strategy to fill the vacuum in the face of a powerful rival, namely Iran, in Iraq, although Iran has no military presence in Iraq.
End of Turkish excuse for military presence in Iraq
With the PKK declaration of its disarmament, now the Iraqis have their eyes on the Turks to withdraw from the Iraqi territory. However, some experts close to Turkey look at the disarmament of the Kurdish group with doubt. A retired brigadier general of the Kurdish Peshmerga forces in Iraq told Al-Arabi Al-Jadeed that the withdrawal of the PKK from areas in Iraq where they are present means the return of more than 250,000 Iraqi Kurds to areas they were displaced from years ago due to military clashes and Turkish military bombing.
Some have also predicted that the complete disarmament of the PKK will not be easy and that the most extreme right wing of the PKK, known as the “Qandil Branch” led by Cemîl Bayik, may not agree to this measure. Iraqi security expert Aqeel Al-Taie believes that the disarmament of the PKK means the return of Sinjar and the surrounding areas, including Makhmour and Zummar, to normalcy, and of course this normalcy will be achieved when we see the withdrawal of Turkish forces from Iraq and the return of displaced Iraqi Kurds to their homes.
Even with the dissolution of the PKK and end of their military operations by their jailed leader Abdullah Ocalan, every now and then Turkish bombers are heard to fly over some towns and villages of Duhok in the north. Najib Khaled, a resident of Balafeh in Deraluk district of Duhok told Al-Hurra of Turkish drones continuing to fly over these regions.
Iraqis' push to expel the Turkish troops
Some members of parliament have already started a motion to prepare for expelling the Turkish forces from Iraq and to close down their bases not only in the Kurdistan region but also other regions, including Zilkan in Mosul outskirts. But Ankara seems insistent on maintaining its bases.
Karim al-Mohammadawy, head of the Iraqi parliament's Security and Defense Committee, said that the presence of Turkish forces in Iraq "is no longer justified."
On the other hand, Muhand Hafezoglu, a political analyst close to the Turkish government, explained to Al-Hurra that Ankara will not stop its military operations in Iraq "until the PKK is effectively disarmed." According to this Turkish expert, even with the complete disarmament of the group, Turkey cannot immediately withdraw its forces from Iraq, for two main reasons: First, Turkey's desire to maintain its forces in Iraq to monitor the situation on the ground after the PKK is disarmed, and second, the existence of understandings between Ankara, Baghdad, the Kurdistan Region, Damascus, and Amman to form a quadrilateral regional force to fight terrorism, which have existed for years. This is while Iraq has rejected any agreement on the presence of Turkish troops, and the Iraqi government insists on the complete withdrawal of Turkish military forces.
In addition, Turkey sees its military presence in Iraq as a balance of power in the region. Ankara sees itself as a regional power that needs to have an influential presence and sees this presence as a protector for its economy, especially given the presence of several large Turkish economic companies operating in Iraq. Al-Faili stated that this presence is a window for further Turkish cooperation in the energy sectors with Iraq, which Turkey desperately needs.
Al-Faili added that even if the Iraqi parliament passes a bill demanding the expulsion of the Turkish forces and this pressures the Turks, implementation of such a bill will be a difficult job because Baghdad lacks the military capabilities comparable, or even equal, to Turkey's to press Ankara for exit from the north. Al-Faili believes that the best solution is internationalization of the case and adoption of a UN resolution demanding Turkish withdrawal, a path already followed by Baghdad but has so far not resulted in a settlement.
So, it seems that the Iraqi government still has no other choice than individually pressing Turkey for exit even after PKK disarmament, a pressure that will likely impact future Baghdad-Ankara relations.
