Alwaght- The noisy party of the rule of the armed groups over the war-torn Syria has ended way sooner than what was predicted and as the al-Jolani gang and its foreign supporters’ true colors are unveiled, the Syrian nation once again is in a decisive historical juncture.
Less than a year after rise to power of the armed groups led by Ahmad al-Sharaa, better known for his nom de guerre Abu Mohammad al-Jolani who took off his military uniform and wore suit and tie, the aspirations and promises of the new rulers of Damascus to stabilize Syria and rebuild it after a decade of civil war under a “democratic government” and “breaking the international isolation of Syria” with the help of some Arab countries and Turkey very soon vanished.
After the bloody suppression of the Alawite minority in the coastal regions of Syria two months ago that proved the false claims of the armed groups about building a democratic government, now the Israeli attacks on the Syrian territory under the ruse of support to the Druze minority and also Turkish and Arab countries’ silence and inaction to this Israeli aggression have exposed the serious gap between the initial promises and the current realities.
While the anti-minority actions of the armed gangs of al-Jolani are sowing division and social disintegration, Tel Aviv is seizing this opportunity for its expansionist and occupational agenda for the final goal of weakening and ultimately partitioning Syria.
The Israeli regime made it clear that it does not withdraw the regions of Syria it recently occupied and with direct intervention in Sweida crisis it practically takes steps to split of Syria. But the Syrian people are seeing no serious support from the so-called allies of al-Jolani.
It is now clear that the new Syria is trapped in a dark corridor of state terrorism, foreign aggression, and the threat of disintegration, and the prospect of escape from it is very dim and requires a phoenix-like rise from the ashes of the new Syria.
We will discuss in this report the reasons for this inaction, its consequences for Damascus, the view of Syrian public opinion towards Turkey and the Arabs as allies of Damascus, and the future prospects of this fragile equation.
Passivity of Turkey and Arab countries: Instrumental look at al-Jolani and his government
Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, which have been involved in the rise of the militants through overt and covert support and in the period after the fall of the al-Assad government have supported the new rulers in Damascus in various ways, have now stepped aside in the front of the Israeli war machine in Syria.
For these countries, al-Jolani government has acted not as a strategic ally but as a tool against Iranian influence, dismantling the country’s historical identity against the Israeli regime and cutting the chain of resistance in the region, confronting the Kurds and even territorial expansionist goals. Arab governments, especially the UAE and Bahrain, have established extensive relations with Tel Aviv within the framework of the Abraham Accords.
Turkey is also on the path to improving relations with Israel and the US, as it proved by adopting a policy of inaction against the Israeli regime’s crimes in Gaza. Interference in the case of Israel’s attacks on Syria could threaten this path. Therefore, now that Damascus government is under serious threat, many of these actors are unwilling to pay the price of supporting it.
It is important to note that even the Israeli regime and the US have made al-Jolani and his government a pawn to help them achieve their strategic goals in Syria and the region more quickly. And once the armed groups’ rule expires in Syria, Washington and Tel Aviv will not hesitate for a moment to remove al-Jolani , who is completely submissive and obedient and who is even willing to ignore the occupation of Syrian territory and normalize relations with Tel Aviv in order to remain in power.
Public discontentment in Syria: Betraying the promises
The Syrian people, who after the lightning seizure of power by the armed groups without serious resistance from the army last December faced promises of political reforms, lifting the sanctions, economic improvement, reconstruction, and return to normal living conditions, are now facing a bitter truth: The backers of the new government not only do not defend Syria in this historical juncture, but also with their inaction practically give Israel a go-ahead to advance its destabilizing and splitting projects in this Arab country.
This inaction has sparked a new wave of public distrust, expressed through local media, social media, and even limited protests in the south and center of the country. The Syrian people are now seeing for themselves that the beautiful and seductive promises have ended in nothing more than a handful of media support, empty diplomatic visits, and meager economic aid. While their country has also lost its military and defense power thanks to the new government and its foreign backers, there is no military support or practical action in times of need.
This will affect Turkey the most. In recent months, Turkey has tried to expand its influence in Syria through soft power, economic influence, control of border crossings, and media support. But this inaction in the face of open Israeli aggression could quickly undermine this strategy.
If Turkey fails to quickly formulate an effective strategy to contain the political and security consequences of this inaction, its project in Syria may gradually collapse.
On the other hand, Russia, which has played a less prominent role in the developments in Syria in recent years, may once again present itself as the guarantor of the country’s unity by supporting the official structure of the Syrian army.
Last hope: Re-embracing the spirit of resistance
The government of al-Jolani that over the past months has relatively managed to bring armed groups under its control using threat and even deceiving some tribal and religious leaders now faces a serious challenge saving internal cohesion as public are growing more discontented with passivity of his government and his allies.
His tactical departure from extremist takfiri beliefs and finally meeting with Trump has widened the ideological divide between the ruling factions in Syria to the point where some, such as Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi and Abu Qatada, and many other Salafi jihadi leaders, have accused al-Jolani of being secular, apostate, and of abandoning religion.
Although the ideological apparatus of the new Syrian government has made justifications and explanations to reject these labels, it is unlikely that it will be able to convince the extremist faction of its allies. Especially with the heavy bombing of sensitive areas in Syria by the Israeli regime, it leaves no room for justifying the new Syrian rulers to public opinion.
This growing discontent can show itself in gaps within the structure of the armed groups and defection of some of them from the al-Jolani’s rule.
In this situation, the shift in the balance of power in the country can show itself in emergence of new alliances. Some signs suggest shift of standings of some popular forces and even Sunni tribes in the south who are gradually leaning towards resistance to the Israeli occupation.
People, elites, local commanders, and even some supporters of the overthrow of the government day by day more than ever rest assure that at the end of the road saving national sovereignty and territorial unity takes a review of alliances and approaches. If al-Jolani’s government continues its rule, instead of presenting an alternative to al-Assad government, it may victimize Syria in a bigger game designed for it since the beginning the beginning of crisis a decade ago.
