Alwaght- Arrest of Ekrem Imamoglu as the mayor of Istanbul and one of the main rivals of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has led to massive protests in the country. These developments have not only deeply impacted Turkish politics, but also have carried consequences to the areas seen as sphere of Turkish influence like Syria, now ruled by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS).
The leaders of HTS led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani who have set their eyes on Turkish support to strengthen pillars of their rule are now severely concerned about the unrest in Turkey. Given the interwoven relations of the HTS and Ankara, we are investigating the impacts of the massive protests in Turkey on the political and economic conditions in Syria.
The Turkish-backed new government in Syria is heavily reliant on the logistical and financial support of Turkey. Given the political and consequent economic crisis in Turkey, including the national currency value drop and fluctuations in the country's financial markets, cutting Turkish aid to the HTS-led government is likely. This aid cut can result in decrease in public services and payments to the civil servants and military personnel and produce discontent.
Turkey is currently Syria's largest trade partner and its exports to Syria have increased significantly since the fall of government of Bashar al-Assad in early December last year. In January, Turkey and the HTS agreed to review customs tariffs on some products and to begin negotiations to revive a free trade agreement that had been suspended in 2011.
Therefore, cutting tariffs and easing the currency restrictions on Damascus in recent months have pushed the Turkish exports to Syria up substantially. So, if the crisis in Turkey goes on, the exports to Syria will suffer disruptions, and hence a serious challenge. Turkey has announced its readiness to invest in Syria's energy infrastructure and reconstruction, but economic instability in Turkey after the recent protests may lead to a downturn in its trade with Syria, as companies will be less willing to invest and trade abroad in unstable economic conditions, and this will create a major crisis for the al-Jolani government, which relies on Ankara's support.
Since the HTS government is grappling with a tough economic crisis due to the Western sanctions and no progress has been made since fall of al-Assad to lift the sanctions, Turkish aid cut can bring the new Syrian government face to face with serious economic damages. Actually, the new rulers in Damascus cannot solve the economic challenges alone and this will stir public discontent.
On the other hand, a possible reduction in Turkish support could weaken the Syrian interim government and create challenges for it. In such a situation, local actors may seek new sources of external support or adjust their strategies to cope with the changes ahead.
If domestic protests in Turkey destabilize the Erdogan government, Ankara may divert its focus from developments in northern Syria, which could pose a threat to the HTS. The militant group is heavily dependent on cross-border trade from Turkey, and protests and instability within Turkey will increase Turkey’s control of its borders, making it more difficult for the HTS to bring in financial and military resources. If the Turkish economy suffers recession, demand for goods and HTS's taxation of trade will also drop, negatively affecting its revenues.
Erdogan's fall and HTS loss of backrest
If the unrest in Turkey leads to the impairment of the government or impact Turkish foreign policy, it can indirectly stress its Syria sway and this can hit HTS funding routes.
Erdogan is the biggest supporter of the HTS. Assuming the overthrow of his government, financial and military support for Syrian armed groups will decrease if the nationalists and opposition take the rule in Ankara and shift policies. Opposition leaders have repeatedly criticized Erdogan's policies towards the developments in Syria in recent years and have called for a reduction in support for terrorist groups, which may end Ankara's honeymoon with the HTS.
Therefore, in this situation where the HTS is currently in political and economic uncertainty and no country has officially recognized the political legitimacy of this group, if the opposition takes power in Turkey, the al-Jolani regime will face a serious challenge achieving its goals in the region. Because Erdogan has tried hard to garner prestige and legitimacy for the leaders of the HTS by holding regional meetings. Actually, losing this major supporter will be costly for the leaders of new Syria, and in a way, HTS's path to integration in world community through diplomatic channels will become difficult.
It goes without saying that Arab countries, fearing Turkish influence in Syria, had inevitably taken initial steps to establish contact with the rulers of Damascus. If they feel that the threat from Ankara has disappeared, they will not need to restore relations with HTS-ruled Syria, which has an extremist bent. This means isolation of the al-Jolani regime.
Al-Jolani and other HTS leaders find Erdogan the main hope to complete seizure of power in Syria. But the unfolding Turkish developments have rattled these terrorists.
Furthermore, in the absence of Erdogan and his financial and military support, the movements of groups opposing the Syrian interim government will increase, and the turnback of Turkish influence could lead to internal competition between the Syrian National Army and HTS, which will ultimately play into the hands of the resistance groups, which have shown in recent weeks that they can challenge the interim government if the ground is favorable. It should be noted that the HTS managed to suppress armed moves in Latakia and Tartus with the help of the Turkish military forces, and with the loss of Ankara's support, if security challenges arise in the future, it is unlikely that HTS elements can manage the crises.
Additionally, if the Erdogan government is ousted and opposition groups assume the power, new Damascus rulers will be left alone facing Israel. Having in mind that the HTS has no reliance but Erdogan, impairment of al-Jolani rule will grant the Israelis a proper opportunity to annex more Syrian territories to the occupied territories. This will build pressure on al-Jolani who has so far chosen silence to the Israeli occupation of Syrian territory.
In general, Turkish unrest will not only affect the country's Syria policy, but also bear ramifications to the stability of the whole region.
