Alwaght- Two months after revelation of the Chinese president's secret letter to the Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz, media outlets report about an imminent visit to Riyadh of Xi Jinping.
Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan said that the Chinese leader will soon visit the Arab kingdom. Bin Farhan added that Xi will take part in the China-Saudi and China-(Persian) Gulf Cooperation Council summits. Speaking about the significance of the relationship between the two countries, Abdulaziz bin Salman, the Saudi energy minister, said that China has become the top oil export destination for Saudi Arabia.
Amid reports of Xi's visit to Riyadh, Saudis reportedly are struggling to make sure that this visit will not be less than that of the former US President Donald Trump in 2017 in terms of protocols and reception and at the same time show a difference between Saudi reception of Xi and his American counterpart Joe Biden who visited the Arab monarchy in mid-July amid cold reception.
This visit, which is coming in special conditions, is of considerable importance for both sides.
Economic goals topping the agenda
Defining its foreign relations based on the economic interactions and managing to rise as the second largest economic power, China in relations with countries prioritizes economy. This visit to Saudi Arabia is no exception. One of the common agendas of the two countries is the sustainability of economic development, and having a prosperous economy is one of the key goals of Saudi Arabia to diversify its economy. Due to its huge economic and technological capabilities, China can considerably help Saudi Arabia, because both target establishing business partnership in a way that is fully integrated with the global economic system.
In need of technology and expertise, Saudi Arabia demands technical assistance and investment of such countries as China in its oil and gas industries. The Arab country also needs Chinese technology, and thus China can hold a big share in the targeted Saudi economic development, and actually both sides would take political, economic, and social advantage of this development. In recent years, China has increased investments in the gas industry of other countries, and out of the $56 billion in investments allocated to this program, Saudi Arabia is the recipient of about $4.6 billion, being the top recipient of investments.
According to an ambitious plan unveiled by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in 2016, the country intends to be one of the top 15 economic powers in the world by 2030. Although the infrastructure of Saudi Arabia does not allow to reach this position in a short period of time, due to the great wealth that this country earns from oil sales, with the help of the Chinese, the kingdom can achieve part of its goals. Therefore, during Xi's visit to Riyadh, economic issues will take a center stage on the agenda of the two countries, and major economic pacts will be signed, like the long-term contracts that Beijing had previously signed with Iran and the UAE.
Significance of relations for China
As an emerging power, China also pursues certain goals in developing relations with Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is considered as one of the most influential countries in the global oil markets and this issue is vital for China, which is the largest oil importer in the world.
The relations between Beijing and Riyadh have developed significantly at all levels in recent years, especially in energy and economy. During Xi's visit to Riyadh in 2016, the two sides signed 14 economic agreements worth $65 billion, and based on these agreements, Saudi Arabia increased oil sales to China. As a result of this agreement, the bilateral trade value reached $65.2 billion in 2020 and $87.3 billion in 2021, showing that their relations are increasing every year and will grow larger in the future. Saudi exports to China reached $6.27 billion in August 2022, up from $5.92 billion the previous month, according to data from CEIC, a Montana-based center monitoring economic, industrial, and financial data. This shows that the trade relations between the two countries are at their highest level. Now, China is the biggest trade partner of Saudi Arabia, unseating its rival the US. Saudi Arabia exports an average of 1.8 million barrels to China out of the 8 million barrels it produces daily; namely about 25 percent of Saudi oil is shipped to China, indicating the value and position of Riyadh in Beijing's policies. In the future, if European countries along with the US want to reduce the purchase of oil from Saudi Arabia, China can have this market alone due to its ever thirst for oil and so the Saudis will take no damage.
China's closeness to Saudi Arabia has to do with the major Chinese projects. Under Xi, China introduced ‘Road and Belt Initiative’ in 2015 to improve inter-continental relations and move to revive the ancient Silk Road. According to the initiative, Asia, Europe, and Africa will be connected to each other via railways, land routes, and maritime ways. Saudi Arabia is one of the central sections of this project that will play a role with its energy resources. Until recent years, Saudi Arabia was obedient to the US and had the largest economic relations with it. But conditions have changed now and China is presently its top trade partner.
Xi visit’s political message
The Chinese leader’s Saudi Arabia visit at present carries highly important messages to the US. Asked about what Washington thought about the expected visit, the US State Department Spokesman Ned Price said that the US does not expect anybody to choose between the US and China or any other country. Although Price tried to portray as trivial this issue and of no importance for the White House officials, this was just an ostensible stance and in reality the Americans are concerned because growing Chinese influence and presence in the major Arab country poses a serious threat to the US interests and therefore it would be hard for the Americans to come to terms with Xi's visit.
The interesting point is that Xi's visit comes as in recent weeks, the Saudi-American relations have been strained because of Riyadh’s green light to OPEC+ decision to cut oil output by 2 million barrels a day and the two even engaged in verbal clashes. The US officials said they would review relations with Saudi Arabia to punish Riyadh starting with ban on arms sales. By a warm reception of the Chinese leaders, the Saudis intend to tell the Americans their hands are not tied and have options to put strains on the US. In its national security strategy, the US labels China its top rival and in recent months they have been at each other's throats over Taiwan. The Saudis very well understood the situation and by hosting Xi intend to tell the West that after several-decade strategic alliance with it, Riyadh has now shifted to a new alliance this time with the East’s nascent economic heavyweight.
After Ukraine crisis, Saudi Arabia distanced itself from the West and even turned down an American call for increasing its oil output to contain the rallying oil prices. Western news resources even reported that bin Salman rejected to answer Biden's phone calls. Subjecting himself to internal criticism, Biden even traveled to Riyadh to convince Saudi Arabia to increase its oil production but flew back home without any achievements. Bin Salman insisted on his decision not to produce more oil, promoting the views suggesting that the kingdom no longer obeys Washington and, even worse, does not count on its support and protection. Not only did Saudi Arabia not align with the West's policies, it even decided to reduce its oil production in order to show that it acts independently— an action that will lead to an excessive increase in oil price in world markets in the current situation, and this is against the wishes of the Americans and the Europeans who are trying to restore price stability to the energy markets with the help of the Arab countries in the Persian Gulf.
To show its defiance of the US, Saudi Arabia recently announced readiness to join the BRICS, an organization led by China and Russia and gathering emerging powers Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. At the same time, it designed new economic programs to cut its dependence on the US.
The US global hegemony decline has started a few years ago, and after the Ukraine crisis, it became clear to the world that the once-maverick world power is now a paper lion and not even obeyed by the Persian Gulf Arab monarchies.
Indeed, Washington's way of reacting to the development of Beijing-Riyadh relations is out of desperation and weakness, because the White House's threats of punishment have not forced Riyadh leaders to review their decisions. Although the Saudis ostensibly follow their interests by taking measures to prevent oil price slump or by engaging in close tie with Beijing as a world economic power, continuation of this Saudi policy means breaking the bonds of the American-Saudi strategic alliance.
In addition to Saudi Arabia that seeks to show off its gesture of independence in the face of Washington, Xi is set to visit China to show off China's power in the face of the West. Xi's visit comes as the American-Saudi relations are at their nadir and their relations have never been this critical. China, seizing any opportunity to deal blows to the American hegemony, finds the opportunity ripe to meet its goal using ties to the kingdom. While the US is amassing its forces in South China Sea, in response, China is building its presence in strategic regions like the Persian Gulf region, where the US has had decades-long sway. Xi's visit to Saudi Arabia is his first visit after assuming the third term of the presidency last month and indicates that China is tightening its belt and preparing for a different world where Asians will have the first and last word.
Another important point likely to captivate attention in Xi's visit is the military partnership. For decades, Saudi Arabia has relied on the US for its security and military wares. If the American military engineers decide to leave the country, Saudi Arabia would witness serious damages. Saudi officials are worried about such American move and would resort to the Chinese and Russians for help to their military. The kingdom buys major part of its weapons from the US, but the Congress’s moves to ban arms sales to it trigger Saudi review of its security and defense policies, and since the Saudis already follow diversification of their arsenals, they specifically count on the Chinese power. Chinese military advances that equate to those of the West can help the Saudis realize their plans. Through its new policy, Saudi Arabia aims to walk a fine line between the East and the West in terms of security to use the power of one of the blocs should its border security is endangered.
