Alwaght- Twenty-fifth parliamentary election in Turkey will be held on June 7, 2015 in which both political parties and independent individuals are running candidates. Although twenty Turkish parties have expressed readiness to participate in this great competition, the evidence shows that the serious competition is between four parties currently in parliament. Turkish parties try to divide the 550 seats among themselves.
This election is of prime importance for political future of Turkey, as this is the first parliamentary election to be held after the direct election of the president. The next parliament will have a great impact on the country's political system and changing it from parliamentary system to presidential one. In particular, Recep Tayyip Erdogan believe that Turkey’s government system must change and get out of its worn and tight garment. According to Erdogan, with the presidential system, Turkey will have a booming economy. However, for the establishment of the presidential system, 335 parliamentary votes would suffice.
The upcoming election in Turkey is particularly important for several socio-political reasons:
1. Scattered votes:
According to surveys conducted in Turkey, votes in the upcoming election would be unexpectedly scattered and divided. It is expected the ruling party, Justice and Development Party (JDP), despite its over fifty percent of the votes in the last election, this time would win nearly forty-four percent of the votes. Other opposition parties, including the People's Republic and the Nationalist Movement Party, respectively would win twenty-four and thirteen percent of the votes.
2. Attitudes towards the Kurdish issue:
According to Turky’s electoral law, to participate in the distribution of seats, a party must obtain at least 10% of the votes cast at the national level. People's Democratic Party, which on average has 7 percent of the votes of Turkey’s people, has entered the competition this year in the hope of crossing the 10 percent threshold. If this PKK affiliated group succeeds to win the ten percent of the votes, the political equations in Turkish Parliament will seriously change, and opposition Kurds will gain at least six seats in the Parliament. However, if the party wins even 9.9% of the total votes, then it will not have even one seat in parliament. For this reason, party participation for politicians of this party, is a serious venture. However, the votes obtained by the Peace and Democracy Party, the largest legal Kurdish political organizations in Turkey, is what might change the election equations. If this party wins a significant number of votes, which is quite probable, then the on-going trend to change the government system in Turkey will face serious challenges and significant political events will occur in Turkey. In such a case, they will have to either coalesce with the government, which considering Erdogan's actions against the opposition, it is unlikely; or the oligarchs ruling the state system in Turkey, will preside over the government. While such a thing would mean a great victory for the Kurds, and can change the fate of political and social demands of the Turkish society.
3. Changes in JDP:
Justice and Development Party led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan for 13 years, former Prime Minister of Turkey, made major breakthroughs, and it was the only party in the history of Turkey that has enjoyed increasing number of votes in more than a decade. However, over the last year, there have been changes in the party that many Turkish political analysts believe that is likely to undermine the party. A lot of changes are expected to happen in the party. To the extent that, 127 MPs in JDP are again in the electoral list of the party, and 185 were removed from the list and other people run candidate for the parliamentary election. This movement is a great evolution in JDP. As most of the former members of the party, have been replaced by newer ones.
4. Competing Parties:
Republican People's Party, founded by Atatürk, for decades has been Turkey’s dominant political party, over the last decade its popularity has declined. Although the party is still the most important opposition party, in many provinces, particularly in East and Southeast provinces, it maintains a dwindling popularity. Experts believe that the discourse and ideology of the Republican People's Party, has no clear answer for the today’s issues and needs of the Turkish people and country. Currently, there has been a serious disagreements between both nationalist and left-wing parties, and because of such a nonconformity, several important figures of the party resigned over the past few months. As a matter of fact, Kemal Kılıçdaroglu, the current leader of Republican People's Party, does not have much charisma and power to direct the party. Some believe that natural and political life of the party is coming to its end, and considering its intellectual and organizational problems, there is little hope for it to come to power.
The Nationalist Movement Party, the main political body of the nationalist Turkish, is the precursor to the Turkish identity and Turkish nationality. The party disagrees with the ruling party on issues of ethnicity. Nationalist Movement Party believes that negotiations with the PKK is betrayal of Turkey. The party believes there is no such thing as the Kurds issue, and the flexibility of Erdogan’s friends over the Kurdish opposition will eventually lead to the disintegration of the country. Nationalist Movement Party, in his harsh statements and slogans, accuses Davutoglu government of treason, and the People's Democratic Party of being terrorist. The party also believes that Republican People's Party, is not able to properly play the role of the largest opposition party. Early forecasts suggest that the party in the upcoming election, in some provinces will have an increased relative votes.
5. The future political system of Turkey:
If the ruling party, Justice and Development Party, wins the majority of seats in the House of Representatives and wins two-thirds support in the 550-seat assembly, or 367 votes, there would be no need for a referendum to change the constitution, otherwise there would be a long difficult way ahead of Turkish policy. There are two major problems in the referendum. First, it requires the approval of parliament, and considering the power of the opposition parties, they will not allow to pass this law. Besides, the heterogeneity of social and political structure of Turkey is a big problem for such an event.
However, Erdogan's Justice and Development Party hope to win the parliamentary election in Turkey, and change the country's political system from a parliamentary system to a presidential one, and have a grip on political power. However, it appears to pose many challenges.
This election is of prime importance for political future of Turkey, as this is the first parliamentary election to be held after the direct election of the president. The next parliament will have a great impact on the country's political system and changing it from parliamentary system to presidential one. In particular, Recep Tayyip Erdogan believe that Turkey’s government system must change and get out of its worn and tight garment. According to Erdogan, with the presidential system, Turkey will have a booming economy. However, for the establishment of the presidential system, 335 parliamentary votes would suffice.
The upcoming election in Turkey is particularly important for several socio-political reasons:
1. Scattered votes:
According to surveys conducted in Turkey, votes in the upcoming election would be unexpectedly scattered and divided. It is expected the ruling party, Justice and Development Party (JDP), despite its over fifty percent of the votes in the last election, this time would win nearly forty-four percent of the votes. Other opposition parties, including the People's Republic and the Nationalist Movement Party, respectively would win twenty-four and thirteen percent of the votes.
2. Attitudes towards the Kurdish issue:
According to Turky’s electoral law, to participate in the distribution of seats, a party must obtain at least 10% of the votes cast at the national level. People's Democratic Party, which on average has 7 percent of the votes of Turkey’s people, has entered the competition this year in the hope of crossing the 10 percent threshold. If this PKK affiliated group succeeds to win the ten percent of the votes, the political equations in Turkish Parliament will seriously change, and opposition Kurds will gain at least six seats in the Parliament. However, if the party wins even 9.9% of the total votes, then it will not have even one seat in parliament. For this reason, party participation for politicians of this party, is a serious venture. However, the votes obtained by the Peace and Democracy Party, the largest legal Kurdish political organizations in Turkey, is what might change the election equations. If this party wins a significant number of votes, which is quite probable, then the on-going trend to change the government system in Turkey will face serious challenges and significant political events will occur in Turkey. In such a case, they will have to either coalesce with the government, which considering Erdogan's actions against the opposition, it is unlikely; or the oligarchs ruling the state system in Turkey, will preside over the government. While such a thing would mean a great victory for the Kurds, and can change the fate of political and social demands of the Turkish society.
3. Changes in JDP:
Justice and Development Party led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan for 13 years, former Prime Minister of Turkey, made major breakthroughs, and it was the only party in the history of Turkey that has enjoyed increasing number of votes in more than a decade. However, over the last year, there have been changes in the party that many Turkish political analysts believe that is likely to undermine the party. A lot of changes are expected to happen in the party. To the extent that, 127 MPs in JDP are again in the electoral list of the party, and 185 were removed from the list and other people run candidate for the parliamentary election. This movement is a great evolution in JDP. As most of the former members of the party, have been replaced by newer ones.
4. Competing Parties:
Republican People's Party, founded by Atatürk, for decades has been Turkey’s dominant political party, over the last decade its popularity has declined. Although the party is still the most important opposition party, in many provinces, particularly in East and Southeast provinces, it maintains a dwindling popularity. Experts believe that the discourse and ideology of the Republican People's Party, has no clear answer for the today’s issues and needs of the Turkish people and country. Currently, there has been a serious disagreements between both nationalist and left-wing parties, and because of such a nonconformity, several important figures of the party resigned over the past few months. As a matter of fact, Kemal Kılıçdaroglu, the current leader of Republican People's Party, does not have much charisma and power to direct the party. Some believe that natural and political life of the party is coming to its end, and considering its intellectual and organizational problems, there is little hope for it to come to power.
The Nationalist Movement Party, the main political body of the nationalist Turkish, is the precursor to the Turkish identity and Turkish nationality. The party disagrees with the ruling party on issues of ethnicity. Nationalist Movement Party believes that negotiations with the PKK is betrayal of Turkey. The party believes there is no such thing as the Kurds issue, and the flexibility of Erdogan’s friends over the Kurdish opposition will eventually lead to the disintegration of the country. Nationalist Movement Party, in his harsh statements and slogans, accuses Davutoglu government of treason, and the People's Democratic Party of being terrorist. The party also believes that Republican People's Party, is not able to properly play the role of the largest opposition party. Early forecasts suggest that the party in the upcoming election, in some provinces will have an increased relative votes.
5. The future political system of Turkey:
If the ruling party, Justice and Development Party, wins the majority of seats in the House of Representatives and wins two-thirds support in the 550-seat assembly, or 367 votes, there would be no need for a referendum to change the constitution, otherwise there would be a long difficult way ahead of Turkish policy. There are two major problems in the referendum. First, it requires the approval of parliament, and considering the power of the opposition parties, they will not allow to pass this law. Besides, the heterogeneity of social and political structure of Turkey is a big problem for such an event.
However, Erdogan's Justice and Development Party hope to win the parliamentary election in Turkey, and change the country's political system from a parliamentary system to a presidential one, and have a grip on political power. However, it appears to pose many challenges.
