Alwaght- Tensions in Yemen between two old allies, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have heightened over the past few weeks. The clashes in the provinces of Aden, Hadhramaut, Al-Mahrah and Shabwa in southern Yemen have introduced new political and security realities in the country, to an extent that some observers say that the balance of power is leaning to the Emirates proxies and against the Saudi-backed local forces.
The gap and differences between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh over Yemen are widening, with clashes escalating between Emirati-backed local proxy forces on one side and Saudi Arabia on the other. The UAE-supported Southern Transitional Council (STC) announced that the kingdom bombarded the council’s positions in Hadhramaut on Friday. It remains unclear whether there were any casualties in the attacks, and Saudi Arabia has not yet commented on the incident. This comes after Saudi Arabia had previously warned these forces to withdraw from provinces they had recently seized.
Aden TV, affiliated with the Emirati-backed Southern Transitional Council, aired footage of the Saudi attacks. In one video, a man is heard condemning the Saudi airstrikes and chanting slogans against Riyadh.
The Hadhramaut plateau region is home to oil fields, and control over them is of significant financial importance to the involved groups in terms of oil revenue.
Distribution of power in Yemen
Since 2014, after Sana’a fell under the control of Yemen’s National Salvation Government and the country’s army, Saudi-backed forces were pushed south and took refuge in the coastal city of Aden, where they formed Yemen’s self-proclaimed “national” government. But since last month, that government in Aden has come under assault from forces of the STC, which has now seized control of the city. As a result, prominent Saudi-backed figures, including Rashad al-Alimi and Salem Saleh bin Breik, have fled Aden.
Yemen is therefore now caught in a three-way power struggle:
First, the Sana’a-based government, allied with the Yemeni army, which has held effective power in northern Yemen and the capital since 2014. Ansarullah are a key ally of the Sana’a government.
Second, the main southern secessionist force, the STC, led by Aidarous al-Zubaidi and backed by Abu Dhabi. Since last month, the STC has driven the Saudi-supported government out of its headquarters in Aden. The STC was initially part of the Saudi-led anti-Ansarullah coalition that intervened in Yemen in 2015, but it is now pursuing the establishment of its own rule in southern Yemen, a goal Riyadh does not share due to its secessionist implications. In recent days, STC supporters in Aden have raised the flag of South Yemen, the state that existed separately from 1967 to 1990. On Thursday, protesters also gathered in the port city of Aden to call for the restoration of independent South Yemen.
Third, the Saudi-backed self-proclaimed government known as the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), which until last month controlled Aden but whose members have now fled the city. According to Reuters, a joint Saudi-Emirati military delegation has traveled to Aden to discuss steps aimed at de-escalating tensions. Saudi Arabia says the delegation has been tasked with arranging measures to ensure that STC forces return to their previous positions outside the two provinces of Hadhramaut and Al-Mahrah. Saudi officials say these efforts are still ongoing.
Saudi-aligned groups outraged
It seems that the STC with support from the UAE and Israel is working to impose a new security, military, political, and geographical reality in southern Yemen.
Meanwhile, Saudi-loyal groups, especially the Islah Party and PLC, led by Rashad al-Alimi, are furious at the recent developments in southern Yemen. According to the statement issued by al-Alimi’s office, the STC is staging a “soft coup” against the “legitimate” government in Aden which he described the only legitimate institution determining the highest political posts in Yemen.
Al-Alimi warned al-Zubaidi about abuse of power for political achievements, warning that his government will counter any attempt to impose policies outside the framework of the constitution.
Saudi failure in southern Yemen
The Guardian has reported that Saudi Arabia has mobilized approximately 20,000 fighters from the Yemeni “Homeland Shield” forces along the border. Despite this military buildup, on-the-ground realities indicate that over the past three weeks, Saudi Arabia has failed to contain the crisis and de-escalate tensions in Yemen’s southern and eastern provinces. It has been unable to persuade or force the Emirati-backed STC to withdraw from the provinces of Aden, Hadhramaut, al-Mahrah, Shabwa, and others.
The southern Yemen crisis is on the verge of entering its fourth week, and Riyadh has yet to restore the status quo. The UAE-backed STC refuses to retreat from the city of Aden, which remains under the control of Emirati-aligned forces.
Emirates’ geopolitical goals
Ali Dhafar, the Yemeni author in a note told Al-Mayadeen that despite the fact that Abu Dhabi was an ally to Riyadh in the war against Yemen, it holds geopolitical ambitions and with support of the US, Britain, and Israeli regime, it is pushing for expansion of its geopolitical influence in African countries and Yemen through control of the coastal regions in the Red Sea and strategic islands from Horn of Africa to Yemen’s western coast and Bab-el-Mandeb.
This Yemeni writer stated that the UAE ambitions in Yemen not only serve the American, Western, and Israeli agenda but also threaten the national security of Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Oman. This is because the UAE supports separatist movements and actively works towards the fragmentation of Yemen, which would in turn endanger the territorial integrity of its neighbors, Saudi Arabia and Oman.
The reality is that the UAE’s actions in southern Yemen and its support for the STC strengthen Abu Dhabi’s geopolitical influence. These positions are directly tied to maritime security, strategic interests, and the broader Western-Israeli project.
Yesterday an ally, today a trouble
Some experts believe that Abu Dhabi cannot directly and aggressively counter Saudi Arabia and instead resorts to its proxies in Yemen to check Riyadh and bolster its own influence.
However, what happens in southern and eastern Yemen should directly be blamed on Saudi Arabia that in 2015 waged war on Yemen and imposed an all-out blockade on it. It was Riyadh that formed an anti-Yemeni military coalition and encouraged the UAE to arm and strengthen southern separatist groups, and now these forces are a source of trouble to the Saudis.
It is unclear how Saudi Arabia will make up for defeat of its allied forces in the south, but if the STC separatists refuge to withdraw from Aden, the Saudi-backed forces find no other way than coalescing with Ansarullah government in Sana’a to push back against the separatists.
