Alwaght- Recently, an array of explosions rocked different regions in Afghanistan, raising the hackles of the domestic and international sides over continuation of insecurity and its effects on Afghanistan’s fragile stability and security. The very latest blast took place less than a week ago near a guesthouse hosting a meeting that included UAE diplomats in Kandahar, leaving a number of the diplomats killed and others injured. Although the Taliban militant group has denied any responsibility for the bomb attack, the evidences appear to show Taliban's role playing behind the scene of the attack.
Given the significance of the case, Alwaght News and Analysis has arranged an interview with Jaafar Haghpanah, an Afghanistan affairs expert, on the drives, aspects, and the consequences of these serial blasts in Afghanistan.
Alwaght: What are the reasons behind intensified waves of blasts rocking Afghanistan within a year?
Haghpanah: The increase of bomb attacks in past few months in Afghanistan has turned into a controversial issue, because over the course of past ten years in which Taliban pursued some moves in the country, the winter has not been its operation season. And due to the geographical difficulties and cold weather for military operations, Taliban during this season has majorly been busy training and equipping its forces. A majority of the operations are carried out in the spring and summer. But with the recent blast ripping through the guesthouse, the question comes down that why did the militant group intensify its harassment and bomb attacks in the winter? We have to take into account a couple of factors in connection with the case. The first one should be linked to the military presence of the US forces in the country. The current time is the season of the White House power transition. The political and security team of the incoming US president Donald J. Trump that will replace the current team of Obama is familiar with Afghanistan and its issues. Many of the members of the incoming team have a record of presence in Afghanistan. So the recent attacks can be a warning to the new security and political team and a kind of muscle flexing by Taliban in front of Trump’s team, especially that the US in the past few months has deployed further forces to Helmand and Farah, two of them Taliban's areas of influence. This is by no means favorable to Taliban.
Another factor is related to Taliban's recent efforts to show off its power beside entry in the peace process with the central Afghan government. In fact, it does not want to be in a weak position in the bargaining with the government. In addition to these factors, we should consider the militant group’s domestic issues, too. Due to internal divides and splits, Taliban needs some saber-rattling to stand strong in the face of rival militant groups such as ISIS, and paint itself still powerful.
Alwaght: Despite such reasons, why does Taliban deny accountability for the operations?
Haghpanah: Perhaps it is because we are now facing not only one Taliban. Many other groups in a way claim to be affiliates of the militant group. In the current conditions, some extremist movements can use the title of Taliban and so carry out some operations. Some affiliates of Taliban conduct such bomb attacks while others in the militant group come against such measures. So it can be suggested that this operation is and is not a work of Taliban. This issue is predictable, and gives Taliban a chance to deny responsibility for the blasts if needed, and in other opportunities use the same measures in the country.
Alwaght: Concerning the transition of White House team, how different is the new team from Obama’s team that is currently dwelling the White House?
Haghpanah: When it comes to Afghanistan, Trump’s team will have greater focus on this country’s matters. The new team includes James Mattis, Trump’s pick for the Secretary of Defense post, as well as General Michael Flynn, who served at the CENTCOM (United States Central Command) and is the commander of the US forces in Afghanistan. Furthermore, we have Zalmay Khalilzad, who is advisor to Donald Trump. He is originally Afghan and an influential man, and served as the US ambassador to Afghanistan. Further people in Trump’s team include Michael Pamyu who is in fact familiar with the US Greater Middle East plan, which Afghanistan is part of it. Actually, the people in Trump’s team are a smaller team of Afghanistan experts. This is the different point between Trump’s team and Obama’s team, which after resignation of General David Petraeus who had a record of service in Afghanistan was devoid of a skilled Afghanistan expert.
Alwaght: Aside from the case of the US presence in Afghanistan, can we track other foreign actors to the recent Afghanistan blasts?
Haghpanah: Well, when it comes to Afghanistan bomb attacks and insecurity, the fingers are always pointed at Pakistan. There have always been claims that the Pakistani intelligence services are behind the blasts in Afghanistan. At present time Pakistan has condemned the attacks but any movement that is affiliated with Taliban is affiliated with Pakistan.
Alwaght: According to what you say, the fingers are now pointed at Pakistan. The question is why was the residence of the Emirati diplomats targeted?
Haghpanah: Recently, the word spread that the Emirati officials have intentions to expand ties with India. They have made a visit to India. Based on this, perhaps we can say that the bomb attack that rocked next to the guesthouse of the Emirati diplomats in Kandahar and killed at least five of them is not unlinked to the Abu Dhabi decision to boost relations with New Delhi. So the recent Taliban’s bomb attack on the meeting of the Emirati diplomats can be a kind of Pakistan’s reaction to the UAE decision to bolster ties with India.
Alwaght: With regard to the current conditions and the recent Taliban moves in Afghanistan's domestic and foreign developments, how do you see the outlook of Afghanistan’s developments in 2017?
Haghpanah: On the future of Afghanistan in 2017, we can say that the current conditions will continue, and the efforts by foreign sides' mediation to make peace and stability in the country will also continue. At the same time, destabilization by domestic sides will continue along with foreign interventions. In fact, in 2017 we will not witness anything new, and the destabilizing factors will continue hitting the country. Furthermore, the foreign interventions as in the past will not bring stability to Afghanistan.
