Alwaght- In recent days, visit to Tehran of Saudi Defense Minister Khaled bin Salman has grabbed broad media attention. The visit, seen as a significant development in the Iranian-Saudi relations, bears signs of major changes in the political equations of the region. This change in the approach of the Arab kingdom not only shows a will of the two sides for de-escalation of tensions, but also carries a strong message to Washington, telling it that the campaign to isolate Iran has failed and the regional countries have come to the belief that interaction with Tehran can work as a stabilizing force.
To discuss the aspects of the visit, Alwaght talked to West Asia affairs expert Hassan Hanizadeh.
Alwaght: What was the aim of the Saudi defense minister's visit amid sensitive regional circumstances? What messages does it carry?
Hanizadeh: The visit to Tehran of Khaled bin Salman who is the third most powerful man in the Saudi power pyramid demonstrates the strategic place of Iran in the region and the world. Having in mind that Saudi Arabia has inflicted heavy political and financial costs due to its aggressive look at Iran in recent years, after an array of regional challenges, the Saudi rulers have concluded that Iran can be a powerful ally for the six members of the (Persian) Gulf Cooperation Council. That is why after end of Saudi war on Yemen and signing of the China-mediated rapprochement deal between Tehran and Riyadh on March 2023, the relations between the two nations have reached a reliable point.
Donald Trump recently wrote a letter to the Supreme Leader of Iran for a new agreement on the nuclear program. The move shows that Washington wants to circumvent the Persian Gulf Arab countries and establish relations with Tehran. Therefore, if the indirect Oman talks go successful, it may harm the Arab position in the region. Therefore, the letter sent by the Saudi king to the Leader draws two views.
The first view is that Saudi Arabia wants to establish reliable and friendly relations with Iran due to Iran’s high position and influence in the region and the world. The second view is that if the negotiations between Iran and the US fail, Saudi Arabia will declare that it will be neutral in any conflict with Iran. Therefore, the meeting of the Saudi defense minister with the Leader of the Revolution and senior officials in Tehran shows the importance and geopolitical position of Iran.
Iran has also now become the focus of regional and global consultations. The visit of Iranian Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araghchi to Moscow and his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and the visit of Secretary General of the International Atomic Energy Agency Rafael Grossi to Tehran and the series of other visits that have taken place in the region show that Iran is not a country that can be isolated, but is at a high level of diplomatic rationality.
Alwaght: Do you think that the Saudi defense minister's visit that came on the eve of the second round of the US-Iran talks has something to do with a possible deal between Tehran and Washington? Do you think that the Saudis are interested in rebuilding ties with Iran given their understanding of the regional realities?
Hanizadeh: Saudi Arabia has its own concerns whether Iran reaches an agreement with the US or not. If Tehran and Washington strike a deal, Saudi Arabia will definitely lose its traditional position with the US and will be a marginal country in international relations. Having in mind that Trump has said that he intends to make a lot of investments in Iran after a possible agreement, this will be very effective for the Iranian economy, which is worrying for the Saudis.
If the nuclear talks do not come to fruition, tensions may arise between Iran and the US, so, Saudi Arabia has pledged to remain neutral in this dispute. Riyadh is concerned that the Vision 2030 project of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman may not be completed due to the possibility of escalating tensions between Tehran and Washington. Currently, 40 percent of Bin Salman's "NEOM" project to create a modern city with high technology has been completed, and any tension in the region will affect this project. Therefore, Saudi Arabia is willing to keep itself away from any regional tension in order to realize this ambitious project, and with this political message, Saudi Arabia is trying to assure Iran that it will not participate in any hostility against Iran.
Alwaght: Since some regional actors do not want Iran and Saudi Arabia to embark on friendly ties, what challenges and opportunities do you think are there in the the two countries' relations?
Hanizadeh: The opportunity is that these two big countries upgrade their ties to acceptable levels and reach a stable point. After all, the past differences of these two actors have, indeed, negatively impacted all Arab countries of the region.
As the largest member of the (P) GCC, Saudi Arabia has great influence over other Arab monarchies, and therefore relations between Tehran and Riyadh can have a positive impact on Iran's relations with other Persian Gulf countries. For this reason, before the start of the second round of Iran-US talks in Rome, the Israeli regime mobilized its resources to set up roadblocks to the negotiations process to block possible success of talks.
The surprise visit of the Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs and the head of Mossad to France and the meeting with Steve Witkoff, Trump’s West Asia envoy, was solely to prevent the continuation of negotiations between Tehran and Washington. At the same time, the Mujahedin Khalgh Organization terrorists and the Iranian monarchist in exile, in line with the Israelis, have also started creating a negative atmosphere against the negotiations and are trying to create a kind of psychological turmoil in Iran so that the negotiations do not come to fruition. All these actions show that the negotiations between Tehran and Washington are important and that they will have an influence on relations between Iran and the Arabs, including Saudi Arabia, which is trying to play a role between Tehran and the Cooperation Council.
Alwaght: How do you see the prospects of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia?
Hanizadeh: Given its embracement of an approach for modernization and breaking its traditional shell, Saudi Arabia is seeking to rebuild itself. So, it tries to avoid marginal issues and regional tensions. Now, the kingdom has come up with the notion that Iran can provide it with a strong shield.
Additionally, Saudi Arabia is worried about Trump's comeback. This is because of his offensive rhetoric against the Saudis. In his first term, Trump showed that he adopts a blackmailing policy in dealing with the Saudis and now has announced that the Arab monarchy should invest up to $1 trillion in the US economy, and these behaviors drive the Saudis away from optimism about the future of relations with the US, especially that Trump mistreats Riyadh. Therefore, Riyadh is trying to use Iran's influential role and supportive umbrella for its own interests.
