Alwaght- The arrest of Ekrem Imamoglu as the mayor of Istanbul and one of the prominent opposition figures on charges of financial corruption and links to terrorist organizations has highly agitated the political scene in the country.
The arrest has stirred waves of nationwide protests in Turkey. In major cities like Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir, hundreds of thousands took to the streets, defying the government-imposed ban on demonstration.
Police used tear gas and water cannons to disperse the protesters, which led to violent clashes. Protesters called Erdogan a "dictator" and chanted slogans against him in their massive demonstrations. Turkish authorities have banned all gatherings and marches in Ankara and Izmir for five days to control the situation, but opposition vowed continued protests until Imamoglu is released.
At the same time as Imamoglu's arrest, his academic degrees and those of 28 others who had received their degrees during the same period as Imamoglu were revoked, a move that has caused widespread concern and reactions in Turkish society. According to the Turkish constitution, anyone who intends to run for president must have a higher education degree.
Legal case or political coup?
While people of Turkey are preparing themselves for decisive moment in their country's political future, questions present themselves about behind the scenes of arrest of Imamoglu and the consequences for a country polarized by the long years of rule of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the revolt of the opposition.
Although the Turkish prosecutor's office has issued an arrest warrant for Imamoglu and 99 others on charges of "corruption, bribery and terrorism-related crimes," protesters see the move as politically-motivated by the government to eliminate rivals and plot a "coup against the Turkish constitution."
The arrest of the Istanbul mayor came days before his election as the Turkish presidential candidate, and for this reason, the Republican People's Party (CHP), of which Imamoglu is a member, has considered the move an attempt to eliminate a political rival before the upcoming elections and has called for peaceful protests.
The CHP has scheduled its presidential primary for March 23, in which about 1.5 million members must vote for the presidential candidate for the 2028 elections, and Ekrem Imamoglu has the highest chance of becoming the opposition's choice.
To pretend that the move against Imamoglu is not political, Erdogan described the protests as a "show stages by the opposition" and said the opposition party's problems were not the country's.
Erdogan said there were those trying to create chaos in the streets over corruption allegations, and that Ankara would not surrender to "street terrorism."
Imamoglu's arrest has sparked international concern. Western officials and human rights organizations have condemned the move, calling it a sign of Turkey's shift toward authoritarianism. With the arrest of the Istanbul mayor, Turkey is on the verge of a deep political crisis. Domestic and international reactions indicate that this move could have far-reaching consequences for democracy and political stability in the country.
For several months, especially after the fall of Damascus to terrorist groups, it seemed that domestic and foreign events were working in Erdogan's favor, but the arrest of the Istanbul mayor will undermine the government's efforts to gain popularity and credibility at home.
According to observers, one of the risks for Erdogan is that there is still a long time left until the presidential election, which means that there is enough time for the opposition and their candidate to politically exploit the arrests and other forms of pressure, and this is an important reason to consider Imamoglu’s arrest in the context of the possibility of shortening Erdogan’s term and the possibility of holding early presidential elections.”
No official announcement has been made yet about early presidential elections, but the steps taken by the government suggest that such a scenario is likely. Given that Erdogan is in his second term and cannot run for re-election under the constitution, some commentators suggest that he could run for a third term if the parliament decides to hold early elections.
If the Turkish parliament decides to hold early elections, the president would have the opportunity to run for a third term. There has been no announcement yet about the possibility of holding early presidential elections, but the government’s actions reinforce such a possibility. The arrest of the mayor of Istanbul, who is seen Erdogan's most serious potential rival, could be part of the ruling party's calculations to ensure the success of its leader again in possible snap elections.
Return of economic crisis amid political competition
The arrest of Imamoglu and the consequent protests will have a considerable impact on the national economy.
After the arrest of the Turkish mayor, the Turkey's national currency lira fell to a record low of 42 lira against the US dollar, and eventually closed at 37.665 lira, down 2.6 percent. If the protests continue, it could fall lower, posing a serious challenge to Turkey's struggling economy.
At the same time, the Turkish stock index fell 9 percent, the biggest drop in four years. The main index of the Istanbul Stock Exchange (BIST 100) also fell about 7 percent, indicating that investors are fleeing Turkish markets as trust falters. Domestic and foreign investors have assessed the risk of investment as high due to political instability, and some have withdrawn their capitals.
Investors are concerned about the escalation of political tensions and their impact on the government's economic policies, and if the political crisis continues, the possibility of billions of dollars of capital fleeing Turkey is not far-fetched.
Turkey is currently experiencing a high inflation rate and political instability could compound the situation. The depreciation of the lira will increase the price of imported goods, which will put further pressure on the inflation rate. Also, domestic unrest may disrupt the supply chain and increase production costs. The shrink of the national currency value and the decline in investor confidence can increase the cost of living and put further economic pressure on businesses and households.
On the other hand, Istanbul is one of the most important tourist destinations in Turkey, earning $50 billion a year from tourism. So, the spread of protests and increased internal tensions could push down the tourist visits. Therefore, the decrease in tourism revenues will have a negative impact on the local and overall economy of the country.
Furthermore, with deterioration of the political crisis, the government may have to embark on new policies, like increasing the interest rate or executing further control on the foreign currency price, which in turn can have negative repercussions. If the crisis drags on, the country may sink in a deeper recession.
Outlook of political developments
As the protests and crackdown unfold, the political and economic future of the country grows hazy. Now, everything depends on the way of the government management of the crisis. If it manages to stabilize the situation through economic and political reforms, things could get back on the track, but if it continues to face the demonstrations with an iron fist, Turkey will have long-term political and economic instability and the way to improving the situation will grow tougher in the next months.
In a report on the outlook of the Turkish political developments, Rai al-Youm newspaper predicted: “This crisis began with economic consequences and could have political consequences. If Imamoglu can mobilize the Turkish people behind him, he will succeed in influencing the Turkish economy. The economy is also facing inflation, and this will open the way for the ruling party to surrender to this storm and stop his arrest. Polls show that he can overthrow Erdogan in the next presidential election.”
The arrest of Imamoglu could lead to an escalation of political tensions between the government and the opposition. On the one hand, the CHP and other opposition parties are to view this as an attempt to remove the rivals from the political arena and organize wider protests. On the other hand, the Erdogan government may also increase pressure on the opposition by citing court cases.
Given Imamoglu's popularity, his arrest could spark wider protests in major cities, particularly in Istanbul and Ankara.
His arrest can move Turkish developments to a more closed political atmosphere. This can stir further public discontent and push for further opposition unity. In the short run, the government may boost its position, but in the long run, its measures can bring about serious economic and political consequences to Turkey.
From another aspect, arrest of one of the most prominent opposition figures will probably draw international reactions, especially from the European Union and the US who closely watch human rights conditions in Turkey. This, in turn, can ramp up economic pressure on Turkey and fuel public discontent, especially in the midst of an economic crisis, soaring inflation, and a plunging national currency.
