Alwaght-Afghanistan is a country with long-standing challenges, where internal encounters result from Taliban’s actions as well as the country’s ethnic balance. On the other hand, the condition in the country worsens when external challenges are added, such as conflicts with neighbors, India and Pakistan, in addition to the presence of foreign troops.
The Presidential elections and the promised withdrawal of foreign forces had increased hope about the improvement of the overall conditions in the country. However, the two-stage presidential elections, and the intervention of the western powers to give an impetus to the process of government formation, gave a new dimension to political situation in Kabul. Consequently, the change of the political game’s rules, as well as the events and developments have increased the country’s vulnerability and intensified the already existing challenges.
The government in Kabul was set up with difficulty, and it will continue to face a challenge after another. Meanwhile, the country's economic and security sectors encounter crucial tests, and people’s face power outage. This was Afghani people’s problem along the last 13 years; people always faced a complete or partial power outage. Authorities and the consecutive governments always addressed this problem in their speeches. However, apparently it seems that the people must accept the consistent blackouts.
Additionally, the northern Afghan territory faced the toughest weather condition in the last decades. Snow and blizzard storms have hit Kabul, Parwan, Panjshir, Kapisa, Badakhshan, and Nuristan provinces on Tuesday and lasted until Thursday, causing an avalanche claiming the lives of 250 individuals. This incident also fueled the challenges facing the country.
On the other hand, although recent developments in Afghanistan revealed a promotion in the peace talks between Afghan Taliban and the government; however, Pakistani and US officials visits and their comments may be hiding two messages: Firstly, Washington and Islamabad’s cooperation aims to strengthen their presence in Afghanistan through supporting paramilitary and terrorist groups such as ISIS to weaken Taliban. Secondly, accept the negotiations with Taliban; however, the conditions of the complete withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan should be reviewed.
In this regard, it seems that China has expressed willingness to mediate peace talks between Afghan factions. The Chinese proposal has two objectives: Firstly, to resolve the problem of Uighurs in the country, and secondly, get access to some of the Afghani mines. According to several recent reports, the Afghan security forces arrested approximately 15 Uighur insurgents, and were handed over to the Chinese authorities. It seems that China through cooperating with Taliban and the Afghan government is trying to secure areas under the control of both parties, and exploit the mines there.
Pakistan also seeking solving the problem of Durand line and preventing India from the intervention in Afghanistan, through firming the ties between Kabul and Islamabad. Pakistan strives for restricting the influence of New Delhi in Afghanistan. The news about the suspension of military cooperation treaty between New Delhi and Kabul, as well as the rumors about the joint military operations between Afghan and Pakistani militaries show that Islamabad had somehow approached its goal in Afghanistan. However, we should see whether Pakistan keeps its commitments to its neighbor or not.
Concerning the withdrawal of foreign troops, especially the US troops, it seems that the withdrawal will be rescheduled after Ashton Carter’s, the new US defense secretary, visit to Kabul. The US government will extend the presence of its troops on the Afghan soil, since it cannot ignore its interests in Afghanistan, as the latter is the heart of Asia. According to the director of the US National Intelligence department, Afghan Taliban had recently expanded its activities in Afghanistan and it is trying to take over other parts of the country. Such developments could be a pretext for the continued US presence and for rescheduling the withdrawal of foreign troops.
However, in addition to all the aforementioned efforts, Afghan Taliban representative considered the recent murmurings about peace negotiations and Taliban’s desire to accomplish that through Pakistani military, a media game.
Generally, putting all the internal and external affairs of Afghanistan together indicate that the situation there is flipping over. The new Afghan political equation highlighted the role of Pakistan and China; it also promoted the presence of US troops on the Afghan soil. However, as for Afghanistan itself, the previous challenges seem to continue and even intensify, and new challenges will outbreak.
