Alwaght- The sixth Iraqi parliamentary elections that are described as the country's most important political event in two decades were held on November 11 in a decisive and sensitive atmosphere. Just contrary to the predictions of low turnout rates, this vote saw an increase in participation, recording a 56-percent rate that reversed the low records of the past elections.
As the results came out, the political factions noe have to pick three key posts of parliament speaker, the prime minister, and the president. This process over the past years has been hit by challenges abs now the people and the political observers are watching to see if the past challenges will repeat themselves, or the country will see a smother government formation process.
Now the key questions is about the main winners and the implications on the home and foreign policy of Iraq.
Shiites retain the top position in power
Following the official announcement of Iraq's election results by the country's High Electoral Commission (IHEC), Shiite blocs, led by the Shiite Coordination Framework (SCF), have again secured a parliamentary majority.
A total of 187 parliamentary seats were won by Shiite parties and coalitions. Leading the pack is the Construction and Development Coalition, led by the country's Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, which captured 46 seats. It is followed by Nouri al-Maliki's State of Law coalition with 28 seats, and the Al-Sadeqoon coalition, affiliated with Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, with 27 seats, as other major players in the Shiite bloc. The State Forces coalition, which includes the National Wisdom Movement and Al-Nasr, secured 18 seats, while Hadi al-Amiri's Badr Organization also holds 18.
On the other hand, local lists such as "Services" and "Wasit Ajmal" collectively won 9 seats. Emerging coalitions like Al-Asas and Ashraqat Kanoon each took 8 seats. The Service coalition, which is oriented Determination list, won 6 seats, and the Rights List, affiliated with the Hezbollah Brigades (Kata'ib Hezbollah), secured 5. Several smaller Shiite-affiliated lists also won a handful of seats.
It is noteworthy that the Sadrist Movement, which had won 73 seats in the 2021 election, boycotted this vote. This absence allowed other Shiite factions to consolidate their gains. As a result, groups close to the resistance camp and the broader Shiite spectrum now hold approximately 56 percent of the seats, ensuring they maintain the upper hand in parliament, a position they have held in the two previous legislative terms as well.
Sunnis secure 77 seats
The Sunnis, which have support of the foreign sides, in this vote pushed hard to upgrade their status in the new parliament, but they finally secured only 77 seats. These seats are distributed among several coalitions and lists that have votes in the Sunni-majority provinces of Al-Anbar, Nineveh, Salahaddin, Diyala, abs Kirkuk. Leading this coalition is the Progress Coalition headed by former parliament speaker Mohammad al-Halbousi and the affiliated lists with 33 seats.
Kurds in third place
Kurdish political blocs, which had a high chance of increasing their parliamentary seats following the election's expansion to Kirkuk, secured a total of 56 seats. These seats are distributed among several Kurdish parties and coalitions, with the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), led by Masoud Barzani, taking the lead with 26 seats. The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) follows with 17.
With the new parliamentary layout now clear, the political focus is shifting to coalition-building and the formation of the next government. Analysts predict the post-election political scene will be dominated by intense negotiations, as the victorious factions maneuver to assemble the largest bloc and select the country's next PM.
Iraqis develop their political awareness: US fails to realize its goals
The recent elections were held against a backdrop of significant internal and regional tensions, leading analysts to examine the results from multiple critical angles.
Hassan Hanizadeh, a West Asia affairs expert, spoke with Alwaght, emphasizing key differences in this electoral round.
"This vote was held in a climate of peace and with high turnout rate. After political pressures Arab interference, the Shiite Iraqis responded with high turnout and these finally managed to secure majority. With 187, the Shiites can coalesce with others and form a government and pick a president," Hanizadeh said.
He described the outcome as a marker of the Iraqi public's political awareness. "The results demonstrate that the Iraqi people are fully aware of the schemes by their enemies," he said. "While predictions favored US-aligned factions, Iraqi Shiites turned out in force to counter foreign interference and ensure the next parliament would not be dominated by foreign proxies. They effectively upended the political calculus."
He concluded by framing the result as a setback for Washington, asserting that despite investing hundreds of millions of dollars, the US failed to achieve its objectives. "The future parliament and government will unequivocally favor the Axis of Resistance," Hanizadeh added, "proving that Iraqis possess a sophisticated understanding of regional and international issues."
Al-Sudani top hopeful for PM post
As the SCF secure the largest number of seats, now the next step is picking a PM and president. Achieving this aims requires a consensus among political currents.
Commenting on the competition for the PM post, Hanizadeh held: "Based on the current political landscape, Al-Sudani's list, having secured a plurality, is well-positioned to build a ruling coalition with other Shiite blocs and Kurdish parties, paving the way for his reappointment as PM. The prevailing will among the dominant Shiite political factions is to choose their nominee for the premiership from established figures such as former PM Nouri al-Maliki or Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, with the latter currently holding a significantly higher chance of retaining the post.
Consequently, a major cabinet reshuffle is considered unlikely. A calculated and fluid consensus is expected among the political blocs, particularly the Shiite groups, who share concerns over perceived US plot to sideline the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF).
Mr Hanizadeh described the high turnout of the Shiites as the surprise of this vote, adding: "Despite their criticism to the government of al-Sudani and the behavior of some political factions, the people of Iraq turned out in mases to make sure anti-Axis of Resistance parties and figures will not hold the parliament majority. In other words, by voting to the resistance forces, the Iraqis neutralized a foreign plot and showed their sympathy with Iran as the head of Axis of Resistance and the resistance groups in the region.
Neutralizing American plots
Commenting on the political message of these elections and their results, Mr Hanizadeh maintained: "The election results signal a public mandate to formally solidify the Popular Mobilization Forces into Iraq's official security structure. Furthermore, the high turnout has sent a clear message against extensive American influence in Iraq and the wider region, strengthening the resistance blocs in parliament specifically to counter foreign interference. Therefore, the victory of Shiite factions aligned with the resistance camp demonstrates that the US strategy to contain the Axis of Resistance from within Iraq's political system has failed. This new parliamentary alignment grants the Shiite Coordination Framework a free hand to shape the next government, effectively blocking any Washington-led initiatives aimed at weakening the popular forces. Furthermore, the Iraqis showed that they want to maintain their traditional, emotional, and religious alliance with Iran, something signaling that Tehran-Baghdad relations will be stronger in the light of new Iraqi parliament and government.
