Alwaght- While the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delayed negotiations on the second stage of Gaza ceasefire to after his return from the US visit, Qatar on Tuesday announced that it continues to prepare the ground for the talks, stressing that no serious violation of the agreement has taken place.
Meanwhile, Steven Witkoff, the Trump's special envoy to the Middle East, is to talk to Netanyahu, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, and Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer about the second stage of the ceasefire.
In a statement issued Monday, Hamas said that a delegation of this movement arrived in Cairo to discuss ceasefire and prisoner swap in the third stage.
Despite the agreement to move to the second phase of the ceasefire agreement, many details remain unclear. Sources told Arab Post that the challenging differences between Hamas and the occupation regime have been delayed to the second phase. According to the draft agreement, the second phase of the ceasefire will last for 42 days and include the following:
- Declaring a lasting peace and implementing it before the start of the prisoner swap between the two sides.
- Hamas will release Israeli male prisoners in return for the release of a number of Palestinian prisoners
- Complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza
Still there are some sticking points that should be agreed upon in the second stage.
Philadelphi Corridor
In the first stage, the Israeli army deceased its forces in Gaza according to the agreement and lifted the obstacles ahead of return of the displaced civilians to the northern regions.
Meanwhile, although the draft agreement mentions the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces, the issue of the withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor on the border with Egypt remains unsettled. Netanyahu said on the eve of signing the ceasefire agreement that Israel will maintain full control of the corridor along the Gaza-Egypt border.
The Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper wrote that Netanyahu will never agree to many contradictory reports about what he has committed to, especially regarding the Philadelphi Corridor, so, the second phase will be more decisive.
Haaretz newspaper quoted an Israeli source as saying that the withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor will not take place unless an understanding is reached with Hamas that satisfies Israel.
According to the Yedioth Aharonot report, the withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor, which should be carried out on the 50th day of the ceasefire agreement, will pose a major challenge for Netanyahu after all his statements about the strategic importance of the corridor. Therefore, Netanyahu may either attempt to violate the agreement by blaming Hamas, or back down and allow the negotiations to continue, in which case his government would be at risk.
Netanyahu government claims that Hamas uses the border corridor to smuggle arms from Egypt and the Israelis should stay there to block the smuggling. So, since Hamas insists on Israeli withdrawal and Tel Aviv insists the stay, the fate of an agreement remains shrouded in mystery.
Release of prominent Palestinian prisoners
One of the differences that raised an obstacle ahead of a ceasefire deal was the "Israeli veto" against some prominent Palestinian prisoners who were serving their life sentence.
Among the most outstanding Palestinian leaders on whose freedom Hamas is insisting are Ibrahim Hamed, Abbas al-Sayyed, Hassan Salamah, Marwan Barghuthi, Bd Ahmad Saadah.
Yedioth Ahronoth wrote that the “Israeli veto” against these individuals has not been lifted and it is highly unlikely that Hamas will back down from its positions.
Netanyahu government’s insistence on not releasing prominent Hamas leaders stems from the regime’s fear of releasing Palestinian prisoners in the past. One of these prominent individuals was Yahya al-Sinwar, the former Hamas chief of staff. When he was released from Israeli prison in 2011 after 22 years, the regime’s security agencies warned that his release was a big mistake and that the Israelis would pay a heavy price for it. After Operation Al-Aqsa Storm on October 7, which was planned by al-Sinwar, the Israeli media and politicians repeatedly criticized ignoring this warning. Therefore, Netanyahu and his friends are extremely worried about repeating past mistakes and have therefore not yet announced their agreement to release prominent Hamas leaders.
Post-war
One of the most important challenges of the Israelis is Gaza remaining under control of Hamas after implementing the second stage of ceasefire. Yedioth Ahronoth reported that while Hamas and the Islamic Jihad Movement have agreed to a committee of technocrats running Gaza under Palestinian Authority auspices, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas rejected the idea.
According to this Israeli newspaper, this committee is Hamas’s way to return to power by appointing figures affiliated with the movement to key posts. Additionally, since Hamas’s military power is not eliminated, it is unlikely the movement will agree to disarmament and will cause tremendous troubles to any administration replacing it.
It is noteworthy that the resistance leaders have repeatedly warned that they will not lay down their arms and consider armed struggle the only way to fight the occupying enemy and liberate the occupied lands. Because, in the eyes of the Palestinian leaders, the Israeli regime only knows the language of force, and weapons of resistance were what forced the enemy to the negotiating table and compelled them to accept the ceasefire.
Yedioth Ahronoth reported on the challenges in this regard that what may complicate the negotiations is Tel Aviv’s insistence in the second phase to discuss issues related to the third phase, which include: security arrangements, reconstruction of Gaza, elimination of Hamas, and setting up checkpoints along the Philadelphi Corridor.
Ron Ben-Yishai, an author at the newspaper, says that three things that Tel Aviv must make sure of in the second phase include “ensuring the demilitarization of Gaza, Hamas handing over control of Gaza, and not releasing Israeli prisoners in public."
On the first and second demands, he says that they are urgent and should stand as the backbone of the Israeli approach in the negotiations on the second stage and " we expect to have Trump's support."
The Israeli cabinet's anger at the way the prisoner swap was carried out in the first round is due to the undeniable effects of the prominent and armed presence of the Al-Qassam Brigades members amidst the widespread public reception of them, which has been widely reflected in the media and is interpreted among public opinion and political analysts as clear evidence of Israel's military defeat in Gaza and the continued military dominance of Hamas despite the claims of the Israeli leaders about neutralizing the movement. During this time, the Israeli media repeatedly admitted that the prisoner exchange has become a showcase of Hamas's power and Israel's defeat in the war, and for this reason, Netanyahu is trying to ensure that in the second round, the exchange process is carried out in secret and without the armed presence of Hamas forces and large Palestinian public presence.
Approving the second stage
Another issue that toughens the road to the second stage is the gap inside the government of Netanyahu's cabinet. To alleviate the anger of the hardline ministers of his cabinet who want the war to continue, Netanyahu made it clear that his government only approved the first stage and this does not include the second stage.
After walkout of National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and his party members from the far-right coalition, the number of seats in the Knesset for the far-right was reduced to 62. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has also repeatedly threatened that if Netanyahu does not resume the war in Gaza by the end of the first phase of the ceasefire, his party will leave the coalition and try to sink the government and hold early elections.
Still, the support of the Haredis in the right-wing coalition for the second stage has aroused the ire of Likud and Religious Zionist Parties. Maariv newspaper reported that Haredim leaders want to soften public opinion and opposition on the mandatory military service law that is now under parliamentary debate.
Israel Hayom reported that two cabinet ministers are waiting for Netanyahu to come back from Washington visit to see the results. One is Shas party leader Aryeh Dero who is pushing for the mandatory military service. The second one is Smotrich who wants a return to war and securing victory or holding early elections. So, Trump-Netanyahu meeting on the second stage and future of Israeli political developments will be decisive.
