Alwaght- With the assumption of power by Donald Trump, the prospects of the US tensions with the rivals and even the international partners are gaining weight and politicians in various countries are bracing for Trump's challenging policies.
Iraq is one of the countries that in recent years due to various geopolitical, economic, and political reasons has had a key position in various administrations of the US and so it seems that Iraqi leaders now have serious concerns about interventionist policies of the Trump's White House and challenges to the Iraqi internal stability and foreign relations.
Meanwhile, the confrontation of Iraqi residence groups with the US is nothing new, and given Trump's record of actions in his first presidential term, the scenario of stepping up pressures on the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a force formed in Iraq in opposition to ISIS terrorist group in 2014 following a fatwa by grand Shiite leader Ayatollah Sayyed Ali al-Sistani, is not unlikely.
In this connection, on Saturday, Faleh Fayyad, the commander of the PMF, in a coordination meeting of the members of this group, implicitly acknowledged the existence of pressures and that some are trying to create concern against these voluntary forces. He at the same time highlighted the firm will of this force to confront conspiracies and to continue its political approach and method on the path of resistance.
This comes as in recent days and weeks, some Iraqi media outlets and officials in Iraq and outside it talked about direct American and indirect Israeli pressures on Baghdad to dissolve the effective anti-terror voluntary force or at least full integration of it in the regular army.
Pressures and challenges
The Iraqi government is constantly under international and regional pressures to dissolve the PMF or integrate them into the security ministries. For example, in October, during a meeting of the UN envoy to Iraq Mohammad al-Hassam with Ayatollah al-Sistani in Najaf, the envoy called on the top Shiite authority to issue a fatwa for dissolution or integration of the PMF into the army, but the demand was rejected.
Also, reports from field sources of Alwaght in Iraq said that in recent days disruptions occurred to the salary payments of the PMF members in the banking system and personnel failed to withdraw their cash or transfer money paid to them last month.
Meanwhile, we should refer to the American military actions that during the Gaza war several times bombed the PMF sites, targeting the forces, their military wares, and logistics.
In recent months, the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has denied any external pressure on his government to disband the Shiite armed groups, however, Iraqi political sources and government officials confirmed to the Arab Post that such requests have come from the US and that Washington has pressured the PM to disband PMF.
“The US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken secretly visited Baghdad before the start of Trump’s presidency and asked al-Sudani to disband the resistance groups. The request contained an indirect threat that there would be serious consequences if these groups do not disband and lay down their weapons,” an Iraqi official close to al-Sudani, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told the Arab Post. The pressure has increased since the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria.
The US threats have also included placing prominent Shiite politicians on a terror blacklist.
The official explained that the Americans threatened to put important political figures affiliated with the ruling Shiite Coordination Framework (SCF) such as Haider al-Abadi and Nouri al-Maliki, on the blacklist. They even informed al-Sudani that possible Israeli and American military strikes against the bases and weapons depots of these groups are not unlikely.
Another Iraqi official with knowledge of the negotiations with the American side told the Arab Post, that "the Americans are afraid that Iraqi groups affiliated with Iran will take actions in the near future that will threaten the new Syrian government."
"Washington is afraid that Iran will try to regain its influence in Syria," he added.
Speaking to a US diplomat, the Arab Post reported that "Washington is afraid that Iraqi armed groups will play a significant role in any possible Iranian scenario for the new Syria."
But despite these positions, many Iraqi analysts argue that the US concerns are not about intervention of resistance groups in Syria but about foiling the American plots in Iraq. Actually, with the presence of resistance forces, the American conspiracies have a slim chance of success.
Analysts believe that the US will continue to use ISIS as a playing card and leverage to advance its plans in the region, and with the fall of al-Assad in Syria, the scenario of destabilizing the Iraqi borders will be pursued more vigorously to ensure the continued presence of American forces in Iraq.
It seems that the main Islamic resistance groups in Iraq that are the target of US pressure for dissolution are:
Kataib Hezbollah
Hezbollah Al-Nujaba
Kataib Sayyed Al-Shuhada
Asaib Ahl-Haq
In addition, there are smaller groups that launch attacks on the American forces in Iraq. These groups seriously joined the anti-occupation battle in two periods, one after the assassination of anti-terror commanders General Qassam Soleimani of Iran and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis in 2020, and two after Israel waged war on Gaza in October 2023. These groups include Al-Warithin, Al-Wa'id al-Sadiq Brigades, and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq.
PMF capabilities to counter the pressures
Though facing various pressures, the PMF forces have distinctive capabilities to manage the challenge and maintain role as one of the main security poles in Iraq.
1. Discipline and professionalism
The PMF have demonstrated a high level of organization and discipline, indicating its evolution from a paramilitary group to a professional combat force.
2. Support from religious authority
Having in mind that the PMF was founded in 2014 following a fatwa, some reports suggest that some parties are working to dissolve it through a fatwa from the religious authority. However, following the religious authority and moving towards defending the interests, security, unity and independence of Iraq, which has something in common with the political views of the religious authority, has created unbreakable bonds between the resistance groups and this authority, and therefore, Ayatollah al-Sistani, with his constant support, has neutralized the enemies' plan to sow division using this way.
3. Legal and constitutional legitimacy
These voluntary groups within framework of the PMF officially joined the structure of Iraqi paramilitary forces after ISIS in 2014 siezed Mosul and large tracts of Iraqi territory.
In 2016, the PMF were recognized as an official force by the parliament and in 2019, according to the executive order 331, they joined the official armed forces under the command of the PM as the commander-in-chief.
4. Political maturity in internal crises and resolution against threats
A look at political and military performance of the subsections of the PMF shows that as much as they contributed to unlocking the political and bureaucratic stalemates like formation of the coalition committee and election of parliament speaker to replace Mohammad al-Halbousi and put international interests over party interests in show of organizational maturity, in historic junctures they rushed to defend national security and sovereignty shoulder to shoulder with other armed forces. Therefore, popular support not only from the Shiites but also from ethnic and religious minorities is one of the protective shields of the PMF against pressures.
5. Maneuverablity against political pressures
Despite the political pressures calling for dissolution or integration, the PMF has managed to maintain its role and position as a key security force and enjoy popular support and religious legitimacy.
