Alwaght- While after Taliban's takeover of power in Afghanistan its relations were predicted to be intimate with Pakistan, the course of developments shows that the two neighbors are increasingly heading to confrontation. Amid escalating tensions between Kabul and Islamabad recently over security issues, Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif warned that his country will not hesitate to attack positions of the armed groups in Afghanistan. Asked if Pakistan considered cross-border attacks on the warned groups in an interview published on Friday, Asif said that "if the need arises, nothing is more important than the sovereignty of Pakistan."
Asif asserted that Pakistan has to prioritize its interests. He added: "It is also a violation of international norms that Afghanistan's soil is used to export terrorism [to Pakistan] and that those responsible for this work are protected and given safe havens by those there."
He denied any possibility of talks with Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, better known as Taliban of Pakistan, which is blacklisted by Islamabad as a terror group. He maintained that "what we are saying is that there should be a common ground to talk with them." Recently, the Pakistani army announced a new military operation called "Firm Resolve" aimed at curbing the escalation of violence.
Pakistan's warning for possible attacks on Afghanistan territories drew strong reaction from the Taliban officials in Kabul. In an X message, the spokesman to the defense ministry in the interim government Enayatullah Kharazmi said "Pakistan's leadership should not allow anyone to make such sensitive statements in important matters. Anyone who violates our borders under any circumstances will be responsible for the consequences."
Zabihullah Mujahid, the spokesman of the interim government, had previously earlier said that the Taliban reject the claim of the presence of Tehrik-e-Taliban leaders in Afghanistan and "we will not allow anyone to use this country's soil against others, nor do we want war in Pakistan."
Who are Tehrik-e-Taliban?
Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP) is a radical armed group supporting revocation of inclusion of tribal northwestern regions of Pakistan to the Kheyber Pakhtunkhawa province. The TTP is a coalition of militant networks formed in 2007 to unify opposed factions against the Pakistani army. Mollawi Nik Mohammad Wazir, of North Wazirestan, was first to lay the cornerstone of a militant group similar to Afghanistan’s Taliban in the tribal areas of Pakistan and swore allegiance to the Taliban leader Mullah Omar. That is why, in the eyes of many in Pakistan, the TTP is the Pakistani branch of the Taliban.
The TTP's stated goals include cutting off interference of Islamabad in the federally-administered tribal regions and the neighboring Kheyber Pakhtunkhawa province, precise application of sharia law across Pakistan, and expulsion of the coalition forces from Afghanistan. Its leaders also say that the group seeks to establish an Islamic caliphate in Pakistan, which would entail the overthrow of the Pakistani government. In order to implement these goals, this group has carried out numerous attacks including suicide bombings inside Pakistan. It is estimated that 8,000 to 12,000 members of the TTP group reside in Afghanistan, and their number reaches 30,000 along with their family members.
Islamabad accuses the armed groups active in Afghanistan of involvement in anti-Pakistani attacks. After takeover of power, Taliban provided safe haven to the TTP, says Pakistan, but Kabul has categorically rejected these claims.
Over the past 2 years, relations between these two neighboring countries have worsened and their border crossings have been closed due to numerous border skirmishes. In March, Pakistan launched airstrikes inside Afghanistan in retaliation for the killing of 7 soldiers in an attack in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.
In June 2022, the group struck a ceasefire deal with Islamabad, but earlier in September the same year, it ended the deal and resumed attacks across the country. So far, it has launched several terrorist attacks on various cities, killing dozens.
The scale of Taliban government's sway over the TTP
Although the extent of the Taliban's relationship with the TTP is unclear, the Taliban released several of the group's leaders from its prisons after taking control of Kabul. Pakistan considers the presence of terrorist groups in Afghanistan as a threat to its security and expected the terrorist groups to be curbed after Taliban's takeover, but in practice this did not happen and even because of the support of the Taliban, the TTP gained more power on the borders of the two countries and thus more motivation to confront the government of Pakistan in the hope of one day realizing its lofty aspiration of forming an Islamic Emirate in Islamabad.
It seems that Haqqani Network terror group that controls the security affairs in Pakistan has friendly relations with the TTP and the common enemity to Pakistan appears to have put the two groups in a single front. However, the Taliban leadership in general is not interested in tensions with Pakistan due to the unstable economic and political conditions as it knows that clashes with Islamabad in these critical conditions will have heavy costs on Kabul. Despite international isolation, Pakistan has trade relations with Iran, China, and Pakistan and mostly with its southern neighbor Pakistan and so does not want to victimize its relations for the TTP.
In such a situation, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan which finds Pakistan as a political supporter and trade partner seeks a solution to the conflict between Islamabad and the TTP. From another aspect, playing role of a mediation in negotiations helps the Taliban to steer clear of confrontation with the anti-Pakisteni groups in Afghanistan.
The elements of TTP are Pashtuns and have a tribal relationship with Afghanistan’s Taliban with whom they fought against the American-led Western coalition in the past two decades, and for this reason, the leaders of the interim government do not want to turn their backs on these relations, because they are afraid that the militant group will turn its attacks on Afghanistan.
Surur Niyazi, an expert of military affairs, in June last year told Tolo News network that "if the Taliban can broker dialogue between the Tehrik-e-Taliban and the government of Pakistan, this would be a good move." Asadullah Nadeem, an expert on military issues, also stated: "If someone or a faction is supposed to mediate between the government of Pakistan and the Pakistani Taliban, there is no group or faction more suitable than the Taliban. The interim government of the Taliban knows very well that supporting the Tehrik-e-Taliban will harm the bilateral relations with Islamabad and will double the sufferings of Afghanistan in case of border conflicts."
According to some observers, China due to its good relations with Pakistan and Afghanistan can play a significant role. The most active militant groups in Pakistan, ISIS-Khurasan and Baluchestan Liberation Army, all target Chinese nationals or interests. Many Chinese investment projects in Pakistan are particularly vulnerable to terrorism. The series of attacks that have targeted China's interests in Pakistan in recent years have pushed Beijing to repeatedly ask Islamabad to tighten its security measures.
Some observers believe that terrorist groups based in Pakistan are supported by the US intelligence to threaten the rival China's interests, because Beijing's extensive investments in Pakistan are in conflict with American global policies, and Washington is trying to implement its malicious plans by destabilizing the security conditions for the Chinese.
The dim outlook of Doha negotiations
Amid escalating border tensions, Islamabad and Kabul leaders are eyeing political dialogue to defuse the tensions. In this connection, Pakistan Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar on Thursday said that Pakistan intends to send a delegation for talks with the Taliban in Doha, Qatar on June 30. He added that the foreign ministry is planning travels of Pakistani officials to Kabul. He further held: "Afghanistan remains an important priority on our agenda. Make no mistake, our government has not ignored Afghanistan."
Despite engagement in diplomatic talks in Doha, the experience of past years has shown that we should not set hopes on these talks since the new generation of the Taliban leaders no longer listens to Pakistan. The TTP, on the other hand, has shown that it is seeking an Islamic Emirate in parts of Pakistan and it will not forsake struggle until it realizes this goal. Therefore, finding a fundamental solution to the tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan in the short run looks unthinkable. Also, the heavy American-Chinese competition for dominance over the geopolitics of the region prevent insecurity from settling.
