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Analysis

Iraq Limbo: SCF Activities and Tangible Progress towards Stalemate End

Tuesday 5 July 2022
Iraq Limbo: SCF Activities and Tangible Progress towards Stalemate End

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Alwaght- Although after the collective walkout of Sadrist Movement's lawmakers from the Iraqi parliament there appeared expectations of early elections even among the Shiite Coordination Framework (SCF) figures that now has the parliamentary majority, the recent days' movements by the political factions fueled the hope about formation of a new government. 

Last week, Ammar al-Hakim-led National Forces, which are part of SCF, presented an initiative for an agreement on formation of "transition cabinet" until new elections are held. 

The proposal, however, faced opposition of some forces present in the SCF, especially State of Law bloc led by ex-PM Nouri Maliki, who was rumored to be preparing for a new term in the post. 

Zohair Chalabi, of State of Law, stated that rejection of the initiative was due to its content, which is to remove Maliki's candidacy for prime minister, and this is "unacceptable and incorrect." 

Meanwhile, the political dialogue spearheaded by the Coordination Framework last week moved fast, with several meetings held among the political forces especially the National Stability bloc, the SCF, Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, and the Azm coalition. 

Ali al-Fatlawi, a member of the Fatah coalition, told to Al-Maalomah news outlet Saturday that the SCF will hold a meeting on Sunday with the presence of all the united blocs to determine the next prime minister of Iraq.

Stating that at this meeting the post of the deputy speaker of the parliament will also be assigned to complete the constitutional arrangements for the formation of the government, Al-Fatlawi went on: "All the forces of the Coordination Framework are united for the formation of a strong government and a constructive political project and a clear political vision." 

Periodic meetings of SCF members have led to the assignment of three important committees, including the" Committee for Writing the Government Program", the "Committee for Negotiations", and the "Committee for Case Management" or Political Decision-Making.

Meanwhile, there are signs that even some independent figures have reacted affirmatively to the SCF-led dialogue. Shafaq News, quoting its sources in the SCF, wrote that all signs confirm the desire of the independents to form a coalition with the SCF, and they may even name a candidate to compete for the PM post. 

Accelerating the negotiations between factions and the tangible departure from the political stagnation have given Iraqi analysts hope about the possibility of success of government formation efforts. 

Concerning the process, independent politician Saad al-Matalebi confirmed on Saturday that things are "going well" towards a new government.

"The Coordination Framework and other political forces are moving in the right direction to meet the remaining conditions in the constitution," Al-Matalebi told Al-Maalomah. 

Amid progress in the process of electing the PM and cabinet members, news reports suggest that forward steps have been taken toward electing a president by resolving the differences between the two Kurdish parties, the PUK and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP). Al-Fatlawi announced the settlement of the president case after the end of the Eid al-Adha holidays next week, which is needed to pick a PM and approve a new cabinet. A KDP delegation traveled to Baghdad to negotiate on the formation of a government, reports said. 

After surprise withdrawal by Muqtada al-Sadr from the parliament in mid-June, gaps began to emerge inside the National Salvation coalition, which gathered together Sadrists, the KDP, and Sunni forces led by parliament speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi and businessman Khamis Khanjar. Discontented with al-Sadr's move, Masoud Barzani-led KDP softened tone and shift to negotiations with the SCF. Rebin Salam, of KDP, on Sunday said that the current stalemate would not last long and the KDP will join a consensus for a government with participation of all parties.

Meanwhile, a source in the SCF told Shafaq news agency that the dialogue between the two sides was not yet official and public, but the KDP still insists on implementation of its conditions regarding the oil and gas law, the implementation of Article 140, Sinjar dispute settlement, allocation of 17 percent of the federal Iraqi budget to Kurdistan region, in addition to approval of a separate budget to the Kurdish Peshmerga forces. 

Inter-Kurdish talks on the president post progressing 

While over the past seven months the Kurdish infighting over naming a candidate for the post of president has been the main obstacle ahead of a new government, amid heated political talks, news reports suggest that the Kurds made progress to settle their differences. 

The post of president belongs to the Kurds in the Iraqi constitution, and since 2003, according to an unwritten agreement between the PUK and the KDP, PUK candidates hold the post. However, after the illness and then the death of Jalal Talabani, the founder and former leader of the Patriotic Unionnin 2017, a dispute over the president post broke out between the two traditional powers in the autonomous Kurdish region. 

In October 2021 elections, the KDP won 31 and the PUK won 17 seats, an equation tempting the KDP to bid for president. In February, the party, which has apparant dominance over Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), named its candidate Rebar Ahmed Khaled. The Supreme Court challenged the move, however. 

According to the interpretation of the Iraqi Constitutional Court, the election of the president must be held with the presence of at least two-thirds of the members of the parliament— something enabling PUK which is allied to the SCF to block the meeting for the election of the president. With both parties clinging to their stances, the president's seat remains unoccupied by a new figure yet. 

However, local media reported that there are signs of progress through a series of meetings to determine a common candidate. 

Sabah Hassan, a lawmaker of KDP in Kurdistan region's parliament, said that the special UN envoy to Iraq Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert in the current week will mediate between the Kurdish parties to solve the differences regarding the president post. 

The Kurdish parties are trying to resolve the cases related to the election of president, and for this purpose, a meeting is to be held at the headquarters of the Kurdistan Regional Government, which is the starting point for resolving the differences between the KDP led by Masoud Barzani and the PUK headed by Bafel Talabani, according to this member of the local parliament.

Despite these good news about possibility of a settlement, KDP lawmaker Sherwan al-Dobardani held that the party still insists on its candidate Rebar Ahmed Khaled. 

At the same time, Goran Fathi, a PUK member, in an interview with Al-Maalomah news agency threatened that if no agreement with the KDP on a candidate is reached, the scenario of 2018 will repeat itself. 

"This post is the right of the Patriotic Union and if the Democrats insist on their candidate, we will repeat 2018 scenario and advance with two candidates. The candidates, political factions, and lawmakers will solve the case in favor of Patriotic Union. The SCF said it will advocate the PUK candidate if the Kurdish parties fail to reach a deal," Fathi said.

The KDP is strongly opposed to Presidency of Barham Salih, of PUK, being extended. On Saturday, independent lawmaker Ali Turki revealed that the PUK agreed to Salih not being extended as president. 

"The latest meetings reached an agreement on Democratic Party accepting Patriotic Union's candidate on the condition that it would not be Salih," Turki told Al-Maalomah news. 

 

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Iraq Stalemate Kurds Government President SCF

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