Alwaght- Concurrent with nuclear negotiations between Iran and P5 + 1, nuclear ambitions of Saudi Arabia have largely been discussed in the media. For nearly two decades, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have had covert and overt relations, and currently Pakistan is speculated to be the most likely source for strengthening the nuclear program of Saudi Arabia. France and South Korea, beside, Islamabad have made investments in Saudi Arabia’s nuclear power plant projects as its electricity consumption has increased.
However, what makes Saudi Arabia reflect its access to nuclear power in remarks made by its officials, including Turki Faisal, unofficial spokesman for the House of Saud, and Mohammed bin Nawaf, the Saudi ambassador to Britain, mainly depends on the formation of equations as well as the developments in the nuclear talks between Iran and 5 + 1 countries, especially the US that according to Saudis could be extended to cooperative process in regional issues as well.
The Saudis’ concerns have another dimension. They are worried about the political influence of Iran on the West Asia and the Arabic countries. Saudi regime claims that Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, and Bahrain are among the countries on which Tehran is trying to expand its influence, saying that Iran fights Saudi Arabia by supporting puppet groups in line with its ideology. Therefore, in such circumstances, Iran's access to nuclear weapons would change the regional balance, and would enable Iran to have more invasive approaches in Arabic capitals and in the heart of the Arab world.
Saudis believe that Iran's access to nuclear technology would change the balance of power in the West Asia, and will spark nuclear race in the region. Such achievements, along with other factors of Iran’s regional power would give rise to new threats in the countries neighboring Saudi Arabia.
Adel al-Jubeir, the current Foreign Minister of Saudi Arabia, former Saudi ambassador to the United States, had said if Saudi Arabia has to face Iran as a country which has the ability to produce nuclear weapons, then Saudi Arabia would also begin new efforts to get nuclear-weapons.
With this perception of the regional events and Iran’s actions in the minds of Saudi decision-makers, the Saudis’ remarks and behavior in such conditions show that Saudi Arabia is trying to go nuclear. The Saudi decision might have three major implications which follow:
1. To support a West Asia free of nuclear weapons
Over the last decade, one of the main strategies in the agenda of Saudi Arabia, especially in organizations like the International Atomic Energy Agency and non-proliferation conventions, was to support the idea of a West Asia free of nuclear weapons.The support of Saudi Arabia is mainly rooted in two points: First, the technical and strategic weakness of Saudi Arabia in developing its potentials to use nuclear power. Second, to inhibit some states in the West Asia , including Israel , that are likely to achieve such a capability.
2. To indigenously develop the nuclear capabilities
Although the scientific and technical capability of Saudi Arabia to develop an indigenous technology is very weak, for decades, the country looked for a way to achieve this technology. Technical cooperation with Pakistan, China, France, and South Korea is part of these efforts but due to current weaknesses they have virtually become a one-sided transfer of technology from Western countries and have been limited to the nuclear reactors for electricity supply. Accordingly, Saudi Arabia has announced its decision for building 16 nuclear power plants by 2030 at a cost of more than $ 100 billion.
3.To collaborate with a nuclear-armed power
As the above strategies did not work out, the Saudis have resorted to a strategy which dates back to past few decades.Accordingly, over the past three decades, Saudi Arabia has financed a large part of Pakistan's nuclear program. Saudi Arabia funded the defense industries of Pakistan and as Western experts say has helped Pakistan to construct laboratories for missile and nuclear weapon manufacturing.Visits made by Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Al-Saud, Minister of Defense of Saudi Arabia in 1999 and 2002 to the Pakistan Atomic Research Center affirm close military relations between the two countries.
Gary Seymour, disarmament adviser to Barack Obama, stated that the Saudis believe there is an understanding between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan and at worst Saudi regime would be able to get nuclear weapons from Pakistan.Regardless of the presence or lack of such an understanding between the two countries in the 1990s, over the past decade Saudi Arabia has revised its strategy towards variable security environment and the prospect of access to nuclear technology.
Nevertheless, a Saudi defense ministry official stated that media reports about Saudi Arabia's efforts to get nuclear weapons from Pakistan reflect Saudi Arabia’s growing concerns about Iran’s access to nuclear weapons; however, he stressed that the news recently aired by the media simply are speculations and can never be relied on. In response to the news of the possible sale of nuclear knowledge to Saudi Arabia, Pakistani Foreign Minister rejected the reports as "baseless and false".Hina Rabbani Khar, the Foreign Minister of Pakistan stated that they will not give Saudi Arabia their country's indigenous nuclear knowledge in exchange for money.
Having evaluated these three strategies which at times have been in the agenda of Al Saud's decision-makers, we may conclude that the progress of talks between Iran and the West over the nuclear program of Iran, political advantages of Iran, the removal of sanctions, and more freedom in the economic dimension have led to a new understanding among the Saudi authorities whose effects have been evident in remarks and behavior of the country’s officials over the past year. This perception could produce a more practical and clear understanding only if we bear in mind that when the initiative of a West Asia free of nuclear weapons failed in the last NPT Conference and given the increasing domestic demands of Saudi Arabia the Saudis will have to take decisions that could minimize the effects of disturbing the regional balance.
and overt relations, and currently Pakistan is speculated to be the most likely source for strengthening the nuclear program of Saudi Arabia. France and South Korea, beside, Islamabad have made investments in Saudi Arabia’s nuclear power plant projects as its electricity consumption has increased.
However, what makes Saudi Arabia reflect its access to nuclear power in remarks made by its officials, including Turki Faisal, unofficial spokesman for the House of Saud, and Mohammed bin Nawaf, the Saudi ambassador to Britain, mainly depends on the formation of equations as well as the developments in the nuclear talks between Iran and 5 + 1 countries, especially the US that according to Saudis could be extended to cooperative process in regional issues as well.
The Saudis’ concerns have another dimension. They are worried about the political influence of Iran on the West Asia and the Arabic countries. Saudi regime claims that Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, and Bahrain are among the countries on which Tehran is trying to expand its influence, saying that Iran fights Saudi Arabia by supporting puppet groups in line with its ideology. Therefore, in such circumstances, Iran's access to nuclear weapons would change the regional balance, and would enable Iran to have more invasive approaches in Arabic capitals and in the heart of the Arab world.
Saudis believe that Iran's access to nuclear technology would change the balance of power in the West Asia, and will spark nuclear race in the region. Such achievements, along with other factors of Iran’s regional power would give rise to new threats in the countries neighboring Saudi Arabia.
Adel al-Jubeir, the current Foreign Minister of Saudi Arabia, former Saudi ambassador to the United States, had said if Saudi Arabia has to face Iran as a country which has the ability to produce nuclear weapons, then Saudi Arabia would also begin new efforts to get nuclear-weapons.
