Alwaght- While the US President Donald Trump continuously threatens Iran with the "armada" he has deployed recently to the Persian Gulf and the media talk about large development of various equipment and weapons to the American bases in the region, on the other side and amid news blackout, similar deployments are ongoing and Iran is preparing itself for various scenarios including a military aggression by the enemy.
The media blackout surrounding ongoing preparations for various war scenarios, whether limited and short-term or prolonged and large-scale, relying on air strikes or expanding to naval engagements, ground battles, and urban warfare against armed terrorist cells, should not be mistaken for passivity. The broad, general threats issued recently by senior Iranian political and military officials are backed by extensive and surprising operational and logistical capabilities. These threats include full surveillance of enemy air movements, including stealth aircraft; rebuilding and enhancing air defense systems beyond their pre-12-day-war state; destroying American bases in the region; and notably, sinking US naval vessels even outside the Persian Gulf.
Against this backdrop, Iran's military cooperation with its key allies, China and Russia, is crucial for strengthening Tehran's position. Beyond solid and close political and strategic ties, Iran has signed strategic cooperation agreements with both global military powers, which include military collaboration. In recent weeks, clues have emerged indicating an acceleration in military cooperation, tailored to the ongoing state of conflict since the end of the 12-day war. This could lend a new dimension to Iranian officials' warnings against American and Israeli adventurism.
The first clue was the gift of a model of China's advanced J-20 fighter jet by Beijing's military attaché in Tehran to the commander of Iran's Air Force. Given its timing alongside the deployment of American naval vessels to the Persian Gulf, this gesture was laden with political and media interpretations. Notably, after the 12-day war, Iran has shown interest in acquiring China's 4.5-generation J-10C fighter jet. The Cradle news website interpreted the model gift as far more than a ceremonial act, suggesting it was intended to send a message not only to Tehran but also to the US and Israel. Subsequently, media outlets like Iraq's Al-Hurra reported 16 heavy cargo flights arriving in Iran within a 56-hour period in late January, suspected of transporting advanced air defense systems.
Another clue emerged when Iran's ambassador to Moscow, Kazem Jalali, appeared on a television program. When a reporter asked about the recent surge in Russian cargo flights to Iran, he pointed to the military cooperation and agreements between the two nations under their comprehensive strategic partnership, adding that he could not elaborate further. Meanwhile, as American threats against Iran intensify, the Russians have also decided to conduct joint naval drills with Tehran. The move sends Washington a clear message of support for their regional ally in the face of a potential military confrontation.
Why is Iran's geopolitical stability important to China?
To understand Beijing's sensitivity toward scenarios of destabilization or regime change in Iran, one must consider China's strategic, long-term vision for West Asia. Unlike the piecemeal approaches of some international actors, China's engagement with the Islamic Republic is rooted in long-term geopolitical planning. Beijing views Iran not merely as a temporary partner, but as a key node in the emerging Eurasian order.
The first pillar of this importance is Iran's geopolitical position. Iran lies at the heart of the connection between East Asia and West Asia, and from there to Europe, a location central to the strategic logic of the Belt and Road Initiative (RBI). Any internal instability in Iran would not only upset the country's own dynamics but also threaten the security of the land and sea corridors linking China to Western markets. From Beijing's perspective, disruption in Iran could trigger a domino effect of instability along transit corridors where China has invested billions in transportation, energy, and logistics infrastructure.
On the maritime front, Iran's significance is even greater. The Strait of Hormuz and the routes leading to the Bab-el-Mandeb remain vital for China's energy security and foreign trade flow. A significant portion of China's energy imports passes through these waterways, and any military escalation or shift in the power structure in Tehran could upend the security balance of these arteries. In Beijing's view, instability in Iran is not just a regional issue; it is a direct threat to China's supply chains and energy security.
The second pillar is economic interdependence. China is currently Iran's largest trade partner. Iran's exports to China, primarily oil and energy products, are estimated at around $22 billion annually, while Iranian imports from China total roughly $15 billion. Furthermore, the 25-year comprehensive cooperation agreement between the two nations outlines a vision for long-term Chinese investment in Iran's oil, gas, petrochemicals, infrastructure, transportation, and industry, with some estimates projecting the deal's value between $300 and $400 billion. Such a level of economic commitment naturally makes structural stability in Iran a strategic priority for Beijing.
From an energy perspective, Iran's importance to China is even more pronounced. China purchases the lion's share of Iran's exported oil. This not only makes Tehran a key energy supplier but has also allowed Beijing to diversify its import sources and build resilience against geopolitical shocks. Following Washington's intervention in Venezuela and Beijing's concerns over growing U.S. influence on energy export chains, Iran's role as a key player outside Western control in China's energy portfolio has grown, and Beijing's reliance on Iranian oil has become increasingly pronounced.
On the political front, China has consistently emphasized the principle of "preserving national sovereignty" and opposing what it calls "unilateral pressure and sanctions." This stance is more than diplomatic rhetoric; it reflects Beijing's understanding of the geopolitical fallout that would follow sudden shifts in the power structure of countries within its strategic orbit. From China's perspective, regime change in Iran, with its likely outcome of geopolitical destabilization, is part of the US larger game to manage instability in West Asia and delay the global power shift from West to East. For Beijing, therefore, preventing instability or regime change in Iran is not a tactical choice but a strategic imperative, one framed within its long-term competition with the US and its effort to cement its position in a transitioning world order.
Chinese military support to Iran
Given the sensitivity of the current situation, it appears that the Chinese and Russians have stepped in to bolster the Islamic Republic's defensive, military, and security capabilities against a shared adversary. While the details of this cooperation remain largely under wraps, several reputable media sources have recently speculated on the key areas of collaboration.
The Cradle, in a recent report, highlighted China's emergence as a major defense partner for Iran following the 2021 Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement. The outlet claims Beijing has supplied Tehran with new drone, missile, radar, and air defense technologies. Specifically, the report claims that China has delivered the long-range HQ-9B surface-to-air missile (SAM) system and YLC-8B radars to Iran.
The same source also claims that China has provided Iran with DF-17 intermediate-range ballistic missiles, capable of carrying hypersonic warheads and targeting US assets in the region. Additionally, according to the report, China has supplied thousands of tons of sodium perchlorate to Iran, a key component used in producing solid fuel for intermediate-range ballistic missiles.
Meanwhile, over the past few months, unconfirmed reports have circulated about Iran's interest in purchasing the J-10 fighter jet from China. However, a report by the Modern Diplomacy site, titled "How Iran Achieved the Capability to Track Stealth Aircraft," suggests that China's most significant contribution to Iran's aerial capabilities lies not in providing fighter jets, but in enhancing its air defense and anti-missile systems. The goal, according to the analysis, is to enable Tehran to more effectively counter American and Israeli air and missile strikes. These enhancements reportedly include early warning aircraft, shared databases, the BeiDou navigation system as a replacement for the Western GPS platform for missile guidance, and the supply of Hongqi-16 air defense missiles.
According to these reports, advanced Chinese air defense systems, including the HQ-9B and the YLC-8B radar system designed to detect stealth aircraft, have been part of the equipment delivered to Iran.
Furthermore, strengthening digital sovereignty is another area where China is assisting Iran. Through secure, encrypted Chinese systems, Tehran is reportedly building a digital "Great Wall" to bolster its capabilities in cyber and electronic warfare.
The report also notes that China's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) emphasizes enhancing Iran's cybersecurity and artificial intelligence infrastructure as essential tools to protect its digital space from destructive attacks by Israel and the US.
In summary, China's approach can be characterized as follows: reinforcing Iran's institutional resilience, supporting the replacement of Western technologies, deepening economic integration, and expanding diplomatic backing, all while maintaining a calculated distance from open confrontation with the US.
