Alwaght- Like every year, the former Lebanese PM Saad Hariru has returned to the country to mark anniversary of his father's assassination. During this year's ceremony, he made an important speech. This comes as years of living in the UAE has made his presence in the Lebanese politics low-key. However, his recent remarks have been interpreted by some observers as a willingness to return to the political scene.
At the same time, his return to Lebanon is coming ahead of the parliamentary elections, something fueling speculations that he is coming back to the politics. There are various opinions regarding his comeback, while some, among others, look at this with doubt.
Saad Hariri, jump into politics after father's assassination
After his father's assassination, Hariri was thrust onto the frontlines of Lebanese politics. He formed the March 14 Alliance alongside Walid Jumblatt, leader of the Progressive Socialist Party, and Samir Geagea, head of the radical Lebanese Forces party. In the 2005 elections, Hariri secured a seat in parliament representing Beirut's first district, the same seat once held by his father, and his bloc emerged as the largest in that vote. He was re-elected in 2009 when the March 14 Alliance regained its parliamentary majority. The alliance accused the Syrian government of involvement in Rafik Hariri's assassination and organized the massive protests known as the Cedar Revolution, demanding the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon and the establishment of an international tribunal to try those responsible for the killing.
Hariri maintains ties with international business organizations and Saudi financial institutions. He owns the Future TV network, a Lebanese media outlet aligned with his political movement. The channel ceased broadcasting in 2019 but resumed operations online in 2024.
Riyadh’s veto on Hariri
Many Lebanese believe that Hariri is still incapable of returning to the political arena as he faces Saudi restrictions. Al-Jadeed television of Lebanon, lashing out at Saudi interference in the Lebanese home affairs, reported that Hariri is off the politics because Riyadh still maintains its veto against him and he is incapable of escaping Saudi shadow either personally or politically.
This Lebanese media outlet believes that Hariri is still unable to return to the political scene in Lebanon and will not re-enter political rivalries until the "Saudi veto" against him is lifted and he seriously and effectively re-engages in Lebanese political life.
Prominent Lebanese author and political analyst Touni Al-Khoury wrote on the Al-Nashra news website that during his terms as PM, Hariri consistently relied on Saudi support. When that support was cut off, his presence on the Lebanese political scene became practically impossible. He added that today, Hariri remains unable to escape the shadow of Saudi Arabia, both on a personal and political level.
Inclined to return
Other reports show that Hariri, though understanding the limits imposed on him by the Saudis, is interested to resume his political career. Alla Mousa, the Egyptian ambassador to Lebanon, met Hariri at his home in Beirut. He said that as a head of the Future Movement, Hariri is a pivotal factor in Lebanon's politics and there is a willingness by him to return to politics. But how this happens depends on Hariri and the Future Movement.
In 2022, Hariri withdrew from political life, boycotting the parliamentary elections that year and justifying his decision by citing the futility of political action amid foreign interference in Lebanon. Prior to this, he had served three terms as prime minister. Since stepping away from the political scene, Hariri has been living outside Lebanon. Now, however, his inner circle is attempting to revive his political career and bring him back into the fray.
Bahaa Hariri, Saad's elder brother, has criticized Lebanon's current political situation on X, stating in a message: "The failed ruling class that has held power for the past two decades has succeeded in holding Lebanon hostage and plunging its people into bankruptcy, dependency, and systemic corruption. This ruling class, consumed by the grip of weapons and the plundering of public funds, has not only destroyed the foundations of the state but has also sought to break the will of the people and obliterate Lebanon's leadership role in the region and the world." He also highlighted the social, political, and economic crisis that erupted during the October 2019 protests, known as the October Revolution, a crisis Lebanon is still struggling to recover from, rooted in decades of elite mismanagement and neglect of the Lebanese people.
Lebanon's critical condition
Lebanon is under growing home and regional pressures. Observers point to the heavy US pressures on President Michael Aoun for Hezbollah disarming, beside current daily Israeli attacks on southern Lebanon in stark violation to the last year truce deal.
In such a chaotic climate, Hariri's comeback can transform Lebanon's political future. Commenting on Lebanese relations with Arab countries, Hariri said recently that his projects will be "Lebanon first" and "an Arab, independent and free Lebanon", adding that Future Movement will be a "bridge" between Lebanon and Arab countries.
Ex-PM condemned recent Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon as "war crimes," while simultaneously emphasizing the continuation of dialogue with Hezbollah within the framework of the state. The stance suggests that Hariri has come to a critical realization: should he return to politics, he cannot ignore the significant weight and influence of Hezbollah, a significant protector of the country against Israeli aggression.
In a notable development signaling potential realignments, Abdel Bari Atwan, editor-in-chief of Rai al-Youm, reported receiving information about secret meetings between representatives of Hezbollah and Hariri's Future Movement. According to Atwan, the two sides have reached understandings on coordinating positions in the upcoming parliamentary elections, particularly in key constituencies including Beirut, Sidon (Hariri's ancestral hometown), and the Bekaa Valley. Days earlier, the same outlet, citing political science professor Imad Salameh, suggested that Saudi Arabia is seeking a strong, organized Sunni leader in Lebanon. The analysis indicated that if Hariri can position himself accordingly, his return will play into the hands of Saudi Arabia for its strategic interests.
