Alwaght- After the onset of Mosul liberation Operation that aims to recapture ISIS's last stronghold in Iraq, and regarding the fact that this time terrorists cannot relocate into neighboring Syria, an array of speculations emerged on the next destination of ISIS and its geographic area of influence once it is defeated.
Terrorist groups like ISIS have two key characteristics: first, they are like McDonald’s fast food restaurant chain, namely they want to open a branch wherever it is possible. Second, they are dune-like, namely they can move to wherever the conditions allow. Based on these two features ISIS by no means wants its areas of influence be restricted, and seeks several new areas so that in can spread there in the future. One of the regions that very likely the terrorist group will move to in the future is Jordan.
But, why Jordan? Because:
1. Jordan is a country with vast deserts and plains. This factor could help the terrorist group to easily advance to the borders of Jordan without facing natural hurdles. Additionally, absence of Iraqi and Syrian forces on the shared borders with Jordan could pave the way for expansion of ISIS' activities into Jordan.
2. Jordan is the second-largest provider of the terrorist group with fighters. Economic crisis, high unemployment rates, increased national debts, widening gaps between rich and poor, tough domestic conditions, and others give the Jordanian young generation the needed motivation to join ISIS.
3. Jordan shares long borders with Iraq and Syria. The eastern Jordan that has common borders with Iraq is a desert region and the terrorists can easily infiltrate it from western Iraq. Furthermore, a majority of the Jordanian cities are located in north of the country, which shares borders with Syria. But because it has no massive presence in Syria’s south, ISIS tries to cross the Iraqi border areas into Jordan. On the other side, the southern regions in Jordan like the city of Ma'an are hotbeds for growth of Wahhabist thought in this country. Due to its proximity to the Saudi Arabian borders, a lot of Wahhabist clerics are residing in Ma’an. These clerics play key role in attraction of the Jordanian youths to ISIS using the Saudi money.
4. In Iraq and Syria, ISIS terrorists are facing the strong hurdle of the popular voluntary forces. These forces have managed to inflict heavy losses on the terrorist group during different battles. ISIS formerly advanced to northern Baghdad, but now it is confined to north of the country and Mosul, a shrink in the terrorist group’s power that took place thanks to presence of the voluntary forces in the battlegrounds. But Jordan with a smaller population and more limited ideological tendencies presents a good opportunity for the terrorists to transfer strength to its eastern regions.
5. international power to maintain their overbearing policy need to use terrorists and take advantage of them in different conditions. The US in no way accedes to annihilate terrorists in Syria and Iraq. So, to maintain pressures on Baghdad and Damascus, it should keep presence of ISIS on the borders of these two countries in an active mode.
6. Having in mind that Jordan is a member of the so-called US-led anti-ISIS international military coalition, ISIS can find the motivation to take revenge on the Jordanian government. Launching airstrikes in Syria, Jordan has managed to kill large numbers of ISIS fighters and destroyed their dens in the neighboring country, particularly after the terrorist group burned alive a Jordanian pilot and circulated its horrifying footage.
All in all, entry of ISIS to a country other than Syria and Iraq can be effective in uplifting the terrorist group’s morale, and prepare the ground for its further activities in the region.
