Alwaght- Recently, the Turkish government issued an order by the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan freezing assets of 20 Iranian individuals and 18 companies linked to military, research, energy, banking, and shipping sectors on the Turkish soil.
Though looking in contrast to the past policies of Turkey that worked to maintain close economic relations with Iran, this move marks a fundamental shift in the foreign policy of Ankara that is clearly linked to the Western pressures especially after the illegal reinstatement of sanctions under the "snapback mechanism" last week.
This U-turn follows Erdogan's meeting with the US President Donald Trump and is likely part of agreement of the two countries on the region. This prompts questions: What is the aim of this shift and what is the motivation of Erdogan's alignment with Trump's anti-Iranian agenda? What would be the possible damages of Turkish economic distancing from Iran?
The driver for Turkish change and the aims of Erdogan's cooperation with Trump
1. Karabakh case and Zangezur corridor
Turkey has been actively pursuing its vision of a "Turkic World" and a direct land bridge to the east of the Caspian Sea, a centerpiece of which is the Zangezur Corridor project.
While previously stalled by resistance from Iran and Russia over security and regional concerns, the project is now gaining momentum. By aligning with Trump, Erdogan is now leveraging this ambitious route to pave the way for his broader regional ambitions.
2. Syria case and solidifying al-Jolani’s position
Syria is another top priority of Turkish foreign policy. After assumption of power by the Abu Mohammad al-Jolani-led militias in Syria earlier December last year, Erdogan has been working to cement their power and then end the prospective threats posed by the Kurds seeking autonomy in northern Syria.
However, constrained by its own economic troubles, it is unable to offer financial aid to al-Jolani's nascent government. Ankara has therefore focused its efforts on persuading the West to lift sanctions on Syria.
The Trump administration has complied, lifting certain restrictions while simultaneously adopting a tougher stance than before towards Kurdish claims in northern Syria. The US ambassador to Ankara has explicitly stated that the Kurds must resolve their issues and seek an agreement with the al-Jolani government.
Furthermore, Turkey hopes the Trump administration can rein in Israel's military operations inside Syria and help broker a security arrangement between Damascus and Tel Aviv. Ankara calculates that such a deal would reduce the risk of its own direct military confrontation with Israel in the Syrian theater.
3. Headway in military purchases from the US
Another important issue is the Turkish military purchases from the US. Under Joe Biden, Ankara was denied updates to its F-16s and advanced ammunition due to its military cooperation with Moscow and purchase of S-400 air defenses from Russia. Meanwhile, Washington supplied Turkey's rivals Greece and Cyprus with F-35s and upgraded F-16s.
4. Turkish home situation and political pressures
Domestically, Erdogan's political footing is far shakier than in previous years. His Justice and Development Party suffered a historic loss in the latest municipal elections, its worst in two decades. A repeat of this outcome in the next presidential election is a real possibility. Consequently, many analysts and politicians view the newly launched corruption cases against Ekrem İmamoglu and other rival officials as a political maneuver to sideline his challengers.
With his domestic position this fragile, Erdogan is now seeking to bolster his standing through external support, particularly from the US, hoping it will ease internal pressure and reinforce his grip on power.
Is Trump reliable?
Trump has a long history of betraying his allies in sensitive points and actually no country can fully trust him. The priority of Trump's West Asia policy mainly revolves around Israeli interests that run counter to the Turkish demands.
Israel will not allow Turkey's access to the state-of-the-art military technologies to challenge its air superiority in the region.
Furthermore, the White House's Syria and Kurdish policies, shaped by its unwavering support for Israel, are likely to advance at the expense of Turkish interests.
Trump's moves to cement Israeli dominance in the Golan Heights of Syria and his continued, if limited, backing of Kurdish forces signal to the Turkish leader that his powerful ally is both unreliable and unpredictable.
Economic losses of separating business way from Iran
Turkey's economy is experiencing a fragile state, grappling with inflation soaring above 30 percent and intense fiscal pressures. Its previous policy of rapprochement with the West, particularly during the Trump era, yielded no significant economic benefits, and a return of American investment remains unlikely, largely thwarted by the "America First" doctrine.
In contrast, deeper economic and transit cooperation with Iran—positioned as Turkey's gateway to the East—holds substantial potential. This is especially true following Iran's accession into the BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation organizations, blocs that symbolize a growing resistance to Western economic dominance.
The establishment of new, independent financial and trade institutions by major Eastern economies now poses a serious threat to the hegemony of the dollar and the Western-led economic order. For Turkey, this eastern pivot could chart a course toward a more stable and independent economic future.
As the central hub of the North-South Transport Corridor, in partnership with Russia, India, and China, Iran is emerging as a vital artery for future East-West trade. By maintaining close ties with Tehran, Turkey is positioned to secure a key role in this transformative economic network.
Conclusion
In complicated home and regional conditions, the Turkish government is pushing to maximally utilize the US supports to advance its lofty ambitions. Such projects as Zangezur Corridor, establishment of position in Syria, and military purchases from Russia make up the key pillars of this strategy. But Trump as an erratic and pro-Israeli ally makes a risky choice for Erdogan. Actually, the Turkish leader cannot count on his full and sustainable support. On the other hand, cutting off business ties with Iran will deal a blow to the already fragile Turkish economy and deprive it of important opportunities for trade with the emerging Eastern powers. Finally, Turkey must now move in its foreign policy with precision and balance to maximize its gains and minimize potential losses.
