Alwaght- Trump wrapped up his tour of the Persian Gulf, yet his visit appears to have had no impact on the Gaza war situation. This comes despite earlier media reports suggesting that resolving the Gaza crisis would be a key topic in the host countries' discussions with the American president. There were even indications that Trump was beginning to distance himself from Netanyahu on several regional issues, represented by the US agreement with Yemen's Ansarullah movement and direct negotiations with Hamas to secure the release of dual nationals held since October 7, 2023. These developments seemed to hint at possible White House pressure on Tel Aviv to halt its ongoing genocidal war.
But not only have these expectations came to reality, but also even Netanyahu's cabinet announced a new round of massive ground offensive on the largely ruined Gaza. These contradictions have raised questions about behind the scenes of Trump's talks with the Saudi rulers about Gaza and the regional developments and the possible shift of the American approach and its impacts on the Gaza war fate.
Requirements of Trump moving past the Israeli war strategy
In the ambiguity of Trump's future approach to Gaza, several factors can be cited that indicate the need for the White House to distance itself from Netanyahu's warlike strategy.
For Netanyahu, the priority is saving his political position and preventing collapse of his cabinet, and despite the apparent military defeat in Gaza and the inability to achieve the initial objectives of the war after 18 months of fruitless military operations, the scenario of choice for him is direct American involvement in the war. However, the experience of nearly two months of military conflict between the US military and Yemeni Ansarullah Movement in the Red Sea, resulting in the shooting downing of drones and fighter jets and attacks on American ships, showed Trump how much engaging in Netanyahu’s rules of the game can be detrimental to the American interests.
A key point to note here is that Netanyahu’s plans for war are even broader than Gaza and the West Bank. His main aim is to stir a military confrontation between the US and Iran, as well as to strike and neutralize all potential resistance forces in the region. Netanyahu is also considering expanding and consolidating control over areas in Lebanon, Syria, and along Gaza's Philadelphi Corridor with Egypt, even if this violates the Camp David Accords.
As a result, Netanyahu through his policy would like to embroil the Trump administration in large-scale and open wars and confrontations that pose a military threat to all American forces in the region and will undoubtedly lead to the failure of his presidency.
Another crucial factor is the significance of the normalization project in Trump's regional strategy. Certainly, conflict in Gaza will keep Trump from his long-waited dream: A grand plan for Saudi-Israeli normalization and expansion of Trump-brokered Abraham Accords.
But it is not just the conflict in Gaza that is cutting the chances of advancing normalization. The arrival of a new rival in the region has also stripped the US of the upper hand it once had to impose its terms and policies on the Arabs. China’s increased presence and influence in the Persian Gulf region has caused the Arabs to no longer have the same thirst for Washington’s approval and to no longer pursue economic and military cooperation with Washington at all costs.
China’s increasing credibility in the eyes of Arab countries, which is driven by its increased economic partnerships and its adoption of a balanced policy towards various regional poles, has effectively caused the US to back down from its previous conditions for economic and technological cooperation with the Persian Gulf countries, including the condition of normalizing relations with the Israeli regime, in order to prevent further Chinese influence. Meanwhile, the domestic economic problems of the US due to Trump’s extensive tariff war with other countries give another reason for the White House to need Arab oil cooperation and investment.
Arabs burning opportunities
The military, political, and economic difficulties and challenges of the Trump administration during the tour to the Persian Gulf were a very good opportunity for Arab countries to pressure the US president to stop the war and crimes in Gaza. However, Trump's negotiations and interactions were turned just as he desired so that he could obtain the economic privileges he wanted with the least challenge.
This visit once again showed that, contrary to political and diplomatic show-offs , there is a broad gap between the declared and implemented policies of the Persian Gulf countries towards the Palestinian cause. Actually, Palestinian cause and even the advancement of the Arab peace plan , known as the two-state Arab initiative, no longer have much importance among the priorities of the compromising Saudi-led Arab camp. As a worse scenario, it is possible that the complete defeat of Hamas in Gaza and its disarmament is not very much opposed to by the Saudis and the Emiratis.
In such circumstances, despite the rumors about the frayed relationship between Trump and Netanyahu, there is currently no sign that Washington will pressure Israel to stop its Gaza campaign.
In this regard, one should not forget Trump's political and ideological origins as a staunch supporter of the evangelical movement (Christian conservatives) in the US. The intersection of the apocalyptic beliefs of this large group with the belligerent and occupying goals of the Israeli right-wing in Netanyahu's cabinet creates a dangerous situation for the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank.
The performance of the first administration of Trump fully revealed that he is a staunch proponent of Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories, and in recent months, he has unveiled his plans for hundreds of thousands of Gazans. In his Qatar visit, Trump said: "I have concepts for Gaza that I think are very good — make it a freedom zone. Let the United States get involved and make it just a freedom zone." In this regard, the US officials, sources familiar with the matter said, in a new proposal suggested relocation of half a million Palestinians to Libya.
The Trump administration has centered its West Asia strategy on the political and economic integration of the Israeli regime in the region to ensure its lasting security so that incidents similar to October 7 do not occur again, and this requires an end to the historical struggle of the Palestinian people against the occupation.
Therefore, as long as there is an Arab inaction and even green light for the US to advance its aims in the region, Trump may be worried by the war, but at the end of the road he will not dissuade Netanyahu from broadening the scope of war.
