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Analysis

Will Iran-US Prisoner Swap Deal Unlock Nuclear Deal Stalemate?

Saturday 12 August 2023
Will Iran-US Prisoner Swap Deal Unlock Nuclear Deal Stalemate?

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Prisoner Swap with US Involved No Negotiations: Top Security Official

Alwaght- Despite the fact that after dismissal of US special representative for Iran and chief negotiator in Iran nuclear case Robert Malley the negotiations have been on a several-week hold, the release of blocked Iranian assets in various countries by the US in several rounds showed that talks continue behind the scenes. 

After unblocking about $3 billion of Iranian money in Iraq in June, recently an Iran-US prisoner swap was concluded after months of hemming and hawing and intensive talks with regional mediators. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister and chief nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani on Thursday said that Tehran and Washington struck a prisoner swap deal that will be accompanied by release of $6 billion in Iranian frozen assets. 

“Tehran has received the necessary obligations from Washington that the US will commit to the deal,” he said. 

Iran's Foreign Minister Hussein Amir-Abdullahian commented on the number of exchanged prisoners, saying: "The number is not important and messages have been exchanged with the United States through Oman and Qatar for months...The issue of prisoner swap is a humanitarian issue and we do not consider any preconditions for it. We have announced to the intermediary parties in this regard that we will exchange prisoners within the agreed framework.” 

In a statement, Iran's Foreign Ministry said that release of the Iranian blocked assets and removal of the restrictions on the country's financial sources that have been blocked and seized illegally, or even access to them was difficult due to foreign factors and the concerns about repressive American sanctions have always been on the agenda of the foreign ministry. 

“The way of using these released sums will be decided by the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the responsible authorities will take measures on their spending in a way to meet the country's terms,” the statement read. 

Also, Iran's UN mission confirmed the release of dual-citizenship prisoners from Tehran's Evin Prison and said: "This release took place within the framework of an agreement with the mediation of a third country so that the parties would mutually release the 5 prisoners in question and put them to amnesty.” 

Siamak Namazi, Emad Sharqi and Murad Tahbaz" are among the Iranian-Americans who have been imprisoned in Tehran on charges of espionage along with two others whose names have been undisclosed by their families. According to people familiar with the arrangements for the release, one of the unidentified Americans is a scientist and the other is a businessman. 

These prisoners were released on Thursday and transferred to a hotel in Tehran, and will be held there for some time and will be flown abroad after Tehran makes sure that unblocked Iranian assets will be accessible in Qatar. 

Hojjat Kermani, the lawyer of the three prisoners, said that Siamak Namazi has been in prison for 8 years, Murad Tahbaz 6 years, and Imad Sharqi 4 years. Siamak Namazi was sentenced to 10 years in prison in 2016 on charges of colluding with the US government against Iran. Tahbaz was also sentenced to 10 years in prison in the same year on the same charges. In 2020, Sharqi was also sentenced to 10 years in prison for similar charges. 

Unfreezing $6 billion 

The prisoner deal will bring financial benefits to Iran. According to sources familiar with the matter, the US will release around $6 billion in frozen Iranian financial assets in South Korea and transfer them to an account in Qatar. Qatar is agreed to handle the account and Iran can access it only for humanitarian purchases like food and drugs. 

In addition to release of Iran's money, 5 Iranian nationals imprisoned in the US will be released. 

It is noteworthy that from 2012 to 2019, Washington offered waivers from Iran sanctions to South Korea and other countries to buy Iranian oil, but blocked Tehran's access to its revenues. 

The Biden administration officials welcomed the deal and described it an important step, despite criticism by the Republicans against the White House. 

“This is just the beginning of a process that I hope and expect will lead to their return home to the United States. There's more work to be done to actually bring them home. My belief is that this is the beginning of the end of their nightmare,” said Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Thursday. 

Washington-Tehran negotiations over a prisoner deal have started about three years ago along with start of the talks to revive nuclear deal. However, with the stop of the nuclear negotiations and start of last year Iran riots on whose outcomes the Westerners counted, the prisoner swap talks were put on hold. But in recent months and with Qatar and Oman mediation, they were resumed and a deal was finally struck. 

Prisoner swap between Iran and the US mediated by third parties is not a new issue in the relations between the two countries, and in the past, American prisoners or those with dual citizenship who were accused of espionage have been released from prisons. In the midst of nuclear negotiations between Iran and 5+1, in July 2014, Iranian-American journalist Jason Rezaian was arrested on charges of espionage, and after the 2015 nuclear deal, officially called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), prisoner swap continued to be on Washington's agenda. On January 16, 2016, and on the day of implementation of JCPOA, Rezaian and three other American spies were released as part of a prisoner swap deal. Also, Nizar Zaka, an IT expert with Lebanese-American citizenship, was arrested in 2015 at Tehran's Imam Khomeini International Airport on charges of spying for the US and was finally sentenced to 10 years in prison and a fine of more than 4 million dollars. In June 2019, this prisoner was released and flew to the US with what was said to be Lebanese Hezbollah’s mediation. 

Prisoner deal unrelated to JCPOA 

The coincidence of the nuclear talks and the prisoner deal raised a question: Can we consider the prisoner deal as a sign of progress in the talks to revive nuclear agreement? 

Hassan Hanizadeh, an expert of international affairs, told Alwaght that Iran responded affirmatively to the efforts by some regional countries for amnesty to the American prisoners from a humanitarian aspect, but set some preconditions. The recent visit to Qatar and Oman of Bagheri and his meetings with the EU officials was completely effective. The Iranian nation’s resistance to cruel US sanctions showed that pressures do not force Iran to make concessions to the West, he continued. 

Suggesting that prisoner swap is separate from the nuclear deal, Mr Hanizadeh added: “Since such countries as South Korea, Iraq, Japan and India have blocked more than $15 billion of Iranian assets at the request of the United States without acceptable justification, Iran also requested the release of its blocked money in return for the release of American prisoners. It is natural that this has nothing to do with Iran's nuclear case, and therefore it is Tehran's right to get something in return for release of the American spies imprisoned in Iran.” 

Still, the expert agreed that the prisoner deal delivers a prelude for a progress in nuclear case. 

“Release of Iranian blocked assets in return for release of the American spies is a positive step towards settling the issues between Iran and the United States. If Washington commits to its obligations in JCPOA and returns to the 2015 agreement, indeed, there will be a progress in future Vienna talks. Though still there are questions about the US good will, Joe Biden team seems to work to secure a wining card for reelection. This winning card can be a US-Iran agreement on JCPOA, since former President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear agreement dealt a heavy blow to the international United States position,” Mr Hanizadeh continued. 

 

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Iran US Prisoner Swap Sanctions JCPOA Negotiations

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