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Analysis

Will Lebanon’s presidential election go green?

Sunday 29 November 2015
Will Lebanon’s presidential election go green?
Alwaght- Lebanon has is home to 17 sects, dozens of political movements and parties each monopolizing a color code ranging through hues across the partisan palette.
For over a year, Lebanese political factions have been trying to secure a majority to elect a president for the country of 4 million with the two main alliances March 8 and March 14 disputing over the Christian figure who will take up the seat.
While the March 8 coalition, had favoured General Michel Aoun, the March 8 coalition had nominated head of the Lebanese Forces Samir Geagea of the Lebanese Forces leaving the parliament deadlocked over the issue.
Tugging at the bright orange flag (Free Patriotic Movement), with one hand, and the white flag emblazoned with a pseudo-cedar tree (Lebanese Forces) with the other to no avail, Lebanon’s presidential election may end up going green.
The Marada movement, whose green flag has remained steadfastly planted on Lebanese soil despite divisions among Christians, may put an end to the ongoing politically-driven color rift. Franjieh has in recent days surfaced as a potential presidential candidate with reports saying he met with Future Movement leader MP Saad Hariri in Paris.
However, the Marada chief has apparently refused to verify the reports.
What is dubious about this initiative is that Franjieh has long been a staunch supporter of the Lebanese resistance group Hezbollah as well as Syrian president Bashar Assad. While rumours suggested that Franjieh met with Hezbollah-Secretary General Sayid Hasan Nasrallah just days before his meeting with Hariri, a cloud of ambiguity loiters around the reason why other forces may be willing to make way for him.
“There can be no presidential election without the approval of Saudi Arabia and its blessing to the candidates,” al-Akhbar newspaper quoted Franjieh as saying.
This brings the timing and motives of this initiative to question. It is very unlikely that Hariri was the mastermind of this step. Backed by Riyadh, the Future movement has long relied on Saudi Arabia in its domestic policies, making observers doubt that the Franjieh proposal could have been drawn without prior Saudi knowledge. With the presidential vacuum in place, it appears, the time has come to break the political stalemate which has wrought a dysfunctional government, a deteriorating economy, and domestic security instability, even if that means installing a pro-resistance president.
According to sources, Franjieh added, “The positive atmosphere at the dialogue talks on the presidency persuades me to continue on supporting the candidacy of Aoun…As long as he is a candidate, then I cannot run for presidency.”
One apparent obstacle to his election seems to be his ally’s candidacy as Franjieh voiced reluctance to join the race with an ally as a competitor. Yet Aoun has not shown any sign of animosity receiving the news in good sport.
Head of the Change and Reform bloc and presidential candidate Michel Aoun, for his part, has responded by saying that Franjieh has the required characteristics to become president. According to Assafir, a Lebanese daily, Aoun even expressed willingness to back the Marada chief’s bid for presidency.
“Congratulations to him if he pulls it off and some sides are delusional in believing that I would sabotage his bid,” Aoun was quoted as saying.
Meanwhile, Geagea stands on shaky ground as he may be haunted by his bloody past with Franjieh in power.
For now, these are all speculations. But should Franjieh become Lebanon’s next president, someone is bound to be disappointed while many believe that after 30 fruitless parliament sessions and 17 months of political vacuum, efforts to elect a new head of state based on national dialogue will finally pay off.

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