Alwaght- In recent years, the relations between the Pakistani army and the Taliban movement have experienced serious ups and downs. These developments have triggered some changes in the behavior of the Taliban, both inside and outside Pakistan. Over the recent months, the bombings and hostage takings for which Taliban has claimed responsibility have been followed by a wave of analyses and media reactions. However, such analyses have hardly given attention to social and political developments in Pakistan as the background of these challenges. This note is going to briefly discuss the most current developments in Pakistan. Army is the hotbed of changes in Pakistan and despite active role in the majority of events; the organization has also undergone some changes. In short, Pakistan is in a transitional period during which the army is of great importance.
The Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan known as FATA is a semi-autonomous tribal region in northwestern Pakistan, which comprises seven tribal districts and six frontier regions that are directly governed by Pakistan's federal government. Since 1947 and after the independence of Pakistan, FATA was governed by local rulers. Before the Taliban, the local rulers governed the region; however, over the past two decades with the rise of the Taliban, Pakistani Taliban has quietly become the ruler of this area. The Afghan Taliban and Pakistani Taliban are two separate currents: however, they have many commonalities. Many analysts mistakenly assume that the Pakistani army aims to create a buffer zone in border areas; therefore, it does not make attempts to seriously provide the security of the region, and on the contrary, it does intentionally pave the way for presence of rebels so that the army can make use of them in any probable fight in Afghanistan or India. Nevertheless, the Pakistani army has for long sought to fully dominate the area. Despite the success it has achieved in some areas, it has failed to fulfill this wish.
One should not forget that Pakistan essentially suffers identity issues; consequently, the conflicts and disputes have prevented the formation of a common and national identity in this country. The tribal areas in the north as an important part of this country were created with the aim of creating permanent crisis centers. Over the last three decades, these areas usually were among the most important terrorist training centers throughout the region or even worldwide. Many terrorists of the West Asia are somehow linked to the tribes of the FATA region, and that is where trans-regional powers have strategic interests in its persistence. Because in this way, they have access to necessary tools for directing the countries of the region. Interventions in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Syria and anywhere else are initiated from this region.
Therefore, powerful army of Pakistan has had no role in the formation of these areas, and it has always sought to wrest full control over this territory. It is natural that the army pays attention to benefits of such an area, and it attributes to this region some internal insecurities and chaos to mislead the public opinion.
What has happened over the past year, as Nawaz Sharif's government went into office, including the recent seizure of Karachi airport or hostage taking in Peshawar were similar to a show to remind us of Taliban, which is gradually fading away in the public opinion of the region and the world. The fact is that identity vacuum and structural changes in the local power equations in Pakistan, are the primary cause of the disorder. However, expectations or demands of this group from the Pakistani military, in getting political and economic concessions and not receiving the desired response, could be an excuse for this type of hostage taking and sporadic crises. It is worth mentioning that Muhammad Nawaz Sharif has been one of the supporters of the Pakistani Taliban and the Taliban played an important role in the victory of Nawaz Sharif in the parliamentary election; to the extent that Pakistani Taliban was responsible for providing the security of his campaign speeches and electoral meetings. The Taliban has not forgotten Nawaz Sharif's election promises to improve its situation. Nawaz Sharif had promised if he won the election, he would take Pakistani Taliban out of anti-terrorism coalition list. Currently, the US has promised to remove the Pakistani Taliban from the blacklist from the beginning of 2015.
Pakistan's army is just experiencing a new generation of commanders who are deeply in conflict with traditional leaders. This generation has deep differences with its former one in the army, particularly in its view about so-called Jihadist groups or even the Muslim world. An obvious example is their way of dealing with the Pakistani Taliban and other groups. The Pakistani army is now going through profound strategic changes, even it is likely to encounter multiple and serious challenges that may arise from these changes.
At a deeper level, it seems that the current developments in Pakistan are the result of the democratization process in the country. This process, which is designed based on making changes in the parliament, the secularization of laws and the government, establishment of new rights of citizenship, building new institutions and also major changes in the military, would require profound changes in identity of Pakistan. Some of these changes include plans to restore women's rights and to stop the implementation of some Islamic rules (such as retribution). In Pakistan, due to endemic areas for the emergence of violence, the effects of these changes appear in the form of violence.
Currently, the important and, of course, uncertain point about developments in Pakistan, is the position of the military in the country and how to deal with it. We may wonder whether the army is going to undergo profound changes. Are these events designed to introduce some changes in the military? The truth is that Pakistan's powerful army has been the only important factor of cohesion, political stability, and restoring integrity in this important Islamic country. Therefore, any plan or action that might lead to its weakening will spread instability across the country and even beyond the borders.
