Alwaght- Now that Gaza ceasefire is in effect, the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is struggling to find a way to run his campaign before the next elections. The next Knesset elections should be held within a year and Netanyahu has a question out of worry: Will I retain power or lose and cede the power to rivals?
Last week in the Knesset, both Benjamin Netanyahu and his rival, opposition leader Yair Lapid, delivered speeches that effectively started their electoral battle. Netanyahu used his platform to portray himself as the victor of the Gaza war, while Lapid directly challenged that narrative, questioning the war's outcomes.
Analysts like Shira Efron, a West Asia affairs expert, argue that Netanyahu fails to see the Gaza agreement as a failure for his government. Efron contends the deal completely contradicts what Netanyahu has been selling to Israelis for two years, the promise of total victory and the destruction of Hamas.
Yet, many observers caution that nothing is ever predictable with Netanyahu, a politician with a history of clinching unexpected wins. His first election as Prime Minister in 1996 is an example; he defied polls that showed him trailing Shimon Peres by a significant margin.
During his Knesset speech, Netanyahu was forced to frame a ceasefire agreement he was compelled to sign as a major victory, a claim few take at face value. The reality on the ground tells a different story: while Israeli captives are now free, many were also killed. Furthermore, the deployment of 7,000 armed Palestinian men to control post-withdrawal areas in Gaza is a far cry from the total victory over Hamas that Israel was promised.
Netanyahu's current rivals
Netanyahu's opponents include several prominent figures who have formed the "change block" in his face. Neftali Bennett, Avigdor Lieberman, Benny Gantz, Yair Lapid, and Yair Golan are politicians who despite their open differences have made a coalition against the PM.
However, the upcoming Knesset elections mark the first vote since October 7, with exhaustion palpable among Israelis after two years of multi-front conflict. In this climate, Netanyahu appears to face a bumpy road to retain office.
His failure to achieve core war objectives stands exposed: Hamas remains undestroyed, Palestinian militant groups retain their weapons and rocket arsenals, and Gaza's vast tunnel network remains largely intact.
Throughout this war, Netanyahu has repeatedly compared himself to Winston Churchill, Britain's wartime PM. Yet this comparison carries a dangerous historical precedent: Churchill, though victorious in war, suffered a stunning electoral defeat in 1945 immediately after victory. While Netanyahu desperately hopes to avoid Churchill's postwar fate, the political realities suggest his path to saving the power remains extraordinarily difficult.
Shortcut
Some of the parliament members, mainly those close to Netanyahu and right-wing parties are seeking amendments to election law to steer clear of loss. They want to lower the electoral threshold for the candidates to enter the parliament for the right-wing candidates to win seats should the turnout of their vote base be low.
Having in mind that the polls have always shown a tight race between Netanyahu's coalition and the opposing bloc, the PM is reportedly concerned that the unpopularity of key allies, particularly far-right figure Bezalel Smotrich, could sink his ruling coalition.
At present, the party that wants to enter the 120-seat parliament has to at least secure 3.25 percent of the general votes. However, according to to Channel 12, the Netanyahu-led coalition is pushing for a lower threshold, though finalization of this bid requires support of the two-third of the parliament.
According to a recent Channel 12 poll, if elections were held today, Netanyahu's Likud party would win 27 seats, once again making it the single largest party in the 120-seat Knesset. However, the poll reveals that Netanyahu's path to power remains blocked. To form a government, he must ensure his right-wing allies also secure their seats. Failure to do so would allow the rival anti-Netanyahu bloc to clinch a majority and drive him out of power.
The survey positions former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's new party, "Bennett 2026," as the main challenger to Likud, projected to come in second with 22 seats.
The numbers paint a clear picture of the political stalemate. Netanyahu's right-wing bloc, comprising Likud (27), Shas (9), Religious Zionism (8), and United Torah Judaism (7), would collectively hold 51 seats.This puts them 9 seats short of a majority and significantly behind their rivals.
Meanwhile, the anti-Netanyahu coalition, which is made up of Bennett 2026 (22), the Democrats (11), Yesh Atid (9), Yisrael Beiteinu (9), and the party led by former chief of general staff Gadi Eisenkot (8), is projected to secure 59 seats. This leaves them just one seat away from the 60-seat threshold needed to form a government, setting the stage for a fiercely contested battle for every single seat.
Therefore , every party that wants to form government in next Israeli parliament has to form a coalition with one of the Arab parties of Ra'am or Hadash-Ta'al. Each of these parties have 5 seats.
So, it is not unlikely that Netanyahu will stage a political coup through lowering the threshold for his allies to enter the parliament.
