Alwaght- While on the first day of Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia a strategic cooperation pact was signed between the two countries, in a considerable development, according to Reuters citing American sources, Washington set the precondition of Saudi normalization with Israeli regime as a prerequisite for progress in the negotiations on nuclear cooperation with the Arab kingdom.
According to informed sources, abandoning the normalization precondition is interpreted as the grand privilege by the White House, especially compared to the strict stance of the previous US administration that tied nuclear cooperation with the Saudis to normalization and signing of a defense pact.
Although putting on the back burner the precondition for normalization can pave the way for progress of negotiations with Saudi Arabia, Reuters, citing some experts, reported that reaching an agreement between Riyadh and Washington remains elusive given the challenges related to internal uranium enrichment and security guarantees. Meanwhile, all eyes are on the region to see what the "good news" Trump promised to happen during his tour to the region will be.
Saudi Arabia nuclear program strategy
Saudi Arabia’s nuclear program must be viewed in the context of the country’s broader economic and political developments. For years, the Arab kingdom has relied on oil revenues, but now faces dwindling reserves and volatile oil prices. On the other hand, population growth and the expansion of energy-intensive industries are expected to triple the country’s electricity needs by 2030.
The US Energy Information Administration reported last year that 68 percent of Saudi Arabia’s electricity is generated by burning gas and 32 percent by burning oil, and that in June it was using 1.4 million barrels of crude oil per day to generate electricity.
The Saudi officials believe that nuclear energy can provide some of the energy used in energy-intensive areas such as desalination and air conditioning, and allow the kingdom to earn more revenue from oil sales.
These factors, along with international commitments to reduce carbon emissions, have pushed Saudi Arabia towards nuclear energy. Importantly, nuclear development is not just an energy project for Riyadh, but also a symbol of the country’s technological power and regional position.
Saudi Arabia has been planning a broad nuclear development since 2010. The country first established the initial infrastructure by establishing the King Abdullah Nuclear City. In the next step, it has sought technology transfer by signing MoUs with South Korea, France and Argentina. The project to build two 100-megawatt research reactors with South Korea’s assistance, which is scheduled to be operational by 2025, is the first practical step in this program. Saudi Arabia has also established an independent nuclear regulatory agency to demonstrate that it seeks to comply with international standards.
Nuclear technology as part of strategic economic partnership
Saudi Arabia plans to boost economic ties with the US through major investment including injection of about $1 trillion in the American economy. But the talks do not only revolve around the American demands and Riyadh has its own conditions.
Saudi Arabia wants to enrich uranium domestically. Earlier, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said that the kingdom “will seek to enrich uranium and sell its products,” something that has raised international and American concerns about the spread of nuclear weapons in the region.
Riyadh also wants security guarantees from Washington before signing any agreement, including a defense pact. Last year, Saudi Arabia abandoned the pursuit of the defense pact with the US in exchange for normalization with Israel, saying it was seeking a “more limited” agreement on bilateral military cooperation.
Change in traditional US policy
In the past years, the US has adopted more strict policies regarding transfer of nuclear technology to the kingdom. Washington has set three essential conditions: First, Saudi Arabia had to sign the “123 Agreement,” which prohibits uranium enrichment and limits fuel reprocessing. Second, it had to normalize relations with the Israeli regime. Third, it had to conclude a comprehensive defense treaty with the US. This policy remained unchanged until Trump administration.
However, in a possible sign of a new approach, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said during his visit to Saudi Arabia last April that Saudi Arabia and the United States were “on track” to reach a civilian nuclear agreement.
Now, analysts believe that there were several reasons for this change in policy: First, Trump is seeking economic gains from expanding relations with Saudi Arabia, and Riyadh expects to gain concessions, including in the nuclear field, in return for Saudi Arabia’s mega investment in the US economy including the $140 billion arms deal. Second, the US is concerned Saudi Arabia will lean towards Russia or China if its nuclear demands are not met by the Americans. In fact, the decline of American influence in West Asia and the increasing competition with China and Russia in the energy sector have changed American priorities. Third, powerful energy lobbies in the US have sought to participate in profitable Saudi projects.
Technical, infrastructural, and political challenges
Developing nuclear program in Saudi Arabia faces serious obstacles. The most important challenge is the severe shortage of specialized human resources. Estimates show that Saudi Arabia needs at least 2,000 nuclear experts to carry out its programs, whose training will take at least a decade. Another problem is its complete dependence on foreign technology, which exposes Saudi Arabia to international sanctions and restrictions. In terms of safety, Saudi Arabia’s geographical conditions, including high temperatures and sandstorms, pose special challenges for nuclear power plants.
But even if the challenges related to safety and agreement on the provisions of 123 Agreement are removed, the more important and larger issue is Israel’s strong concerns and opposition to a nuclear Saudi Arabia. These concerns have led opponents and supporters in Israel to take the same position. Opposition leader Yair Lapid has called on Benjamin Netanyahu not to remain silent about negotiations that could lead to a “nuclear arms race in the region.”
As a result, it seems that in the short term the nuclear negotiations will have many lows and ups. Saudi Arabia is likely to use the opportunity to take privileges from the US, while at the same time will continue talks to Russia and China. This process may take years and delay progress of its nuclear program and not lead to serious practical actions.
