Alwaght- After the US retreat from its campaign in Yemen and announcing a unilateral halt of the anti-Yemeni bombing, now the US is walking back from its stances in the face of Hamas. Reports say that the Trump administration has withdrawn its precondition for Hamas disarmament for Gaza ceasefire and this shows a drastic shift in American policy in the region amid Gaza ceasefire talks.
According to Al-Arabi Al-Jadeed, the American negotiators have informed Egyptian counterparts that the Hamas disarming demand can be put on the back burner.
According to the report, American sources have said that a ceasefire in Gaza would be possible without Hamas disarming in the first phase. An Egyptian source familiar with the negotiations told Al-Arabi Al-Jadeed that American officials have expressed their willingness to delay Hamas disarmament until after any ceasefire agreement is implemented, and believe that a humanitarian ceasefire can be achieved in the first phase without Hamas disarming. This development marks a significant departure from previous US positions on Hamas.
Why has the US shifted path?
The reports about the US priority shift comes less than a week after Trump announced halt of fight on Yemen. Last week, the US President said he will not bomb Yemen anymore and it seems that now his view on Hamas has changed too.
Earlier US stances on Gaza: Earlier, Trump had announced his plan for Gaza that went far beyond disarming Hamas and aimed at the forced and permanent displacement of Gaza residents from the largely ravaged coastal enclave, to the point that many Western and European allies of the US, including German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, rejected Trump's plans to seize control of the Gaza Strip and relocate Palestinians living in this region. After widespread opposition from Arab countries in the region and European countries to the forced displacement of Gaza residents, the US tied aid delivery to Hamas disarmament, and in this connection, the US State Department announced that aid would flow to Gaza if Hamas released the hostages and disarmed.
Change in US position: However, now the US government is explicitly emphasizing a ceasefire in Gaza without tying it to disarmament of Hamas, and actually disarmament is no longer Trump's priority as in the past.
Unsuccessful experience in Yemen: Perhaps the experience of several months of futile bombing in Yemen has now led the Americans to the conclusion that bombing Gaza will also be fruitless, and therefore, after changing his position on Yemen and announcing a halt to the bombings, Trump is now emphasizing a ceasefire in Gaza even without disarming Hamas.
Inconclusive war in Gaza: On the other hand, the 19-month war in Gaza has also failed to produce the desired results for the Israelis, and Israeli leaders also acknowledge the futility of the war in Gaza. For example, Ram Ben Barak, a member of the Knesset, admitted last month that the war against Gaza went nowhere and that "we are losing." Referring to the collapse of the Israeli economy and its international isolation, the Israeli politician added: "The army is forced to fight to capture the areas it previously captured, and more soldiers must be killed every day in this way." Also, Yair Lapid, the head of the opposition, considered the ongoing war against the Gaza Strip to be inconclusive and assessed its continuation as the main cause of the economic crisis and high inflation in the occupied territories. In this situation, it seems that Trump's priority behind ceasefire in Gaza is saving his long-time partner, Israel, from the swamp of war.
Is Hamas possible to destroy?
Concerning Hamas destruction, several points need to be taken into account:
Hamas, a bureaucratic Organization: Now in its fourth decade of activity, Hamas is a bureaucratic yet diverse institution. The existence of separate political, military, and social branches reflects the organization’s specific functions, each with its own roles, responsibilities, and hierarchy. Over the years, Hamas’s bureaucratic functioning and the presence of influential leaders have allowed the movement to represent Palestinians politically while enabling the group to quickly replace forces it lost during devastating war. At the same time, there is an overlap and coordination of power structures between Hamas’ leadership in Gaza and outside it, creating an opportunity for the movement to garner political and international support.
Having roots deep into the Palestinian society: Groups like Hamas, which enjoy widespread social support, are difficult to replace with another group. Indeed, one of the problems facing Israel – and the Palestinian Authority – is that Hamas is deeply rooted in Palestinian society and, through its social services, influences the daily lives of Palestinians. According to Khaled Haroub, a Middle East political analyst, it is not difficult to find reasons for Hamas’s popularity as it continues to be seen “as the voice of Palestinian dignity and a symbol of defending Palestinian rights.” Popular support has enabled the movement to recruit, raise money and rebuild its vital resources, ensuring its continued ability to survive into the future.
Growing legitimacy of Hamas: On the other hand, Israel’s terrorist efforts, including the targeted assassinations of Hamas leaders, have boosted the movement’s legitimacy. At the same time, the increasing number of martyrs in Gaza has increased Hamas’s popularity as the only force defending civilians against Israeli barbarism. According to the Gaza health ministry, 60 percent of Palestinians reported that a family member had been martyred, while 80 percent reported that a family member had been martyred or wounded. Daily life in Gaza is no longer the same; almost the entire population of Gaza – some 1.9 million people – has been displaced and there is no access to basic needs. In these circumstances, Hamas is the only force supporting Gazans. A poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy Research showed that by the end of May, 63 percent of Palestinians held Israel responsible for the current plight of the people of Gaza, while only 8 percent blamed Hamas.
Hamas not weakened: At the same time, there are small pieces of evidence suggesting that Hamas has lost its capabilities against Israel. In recent months, Hamas has continued its guerrilla tactics and cross-border rocket attacks against Israel, demonstrating that it is still capable of threatening and targeting the Israeli regime. Last week, Israeli Home Front Command announced that sirens sounded in Sderot near Gaza amid predictions of rocket firing, something showing that Hamas still targets regions in Israel.
