Alwaght- With the battleground triumphs of the Syrian forces and their allies in the fight against terrorist groups and cleansing most of Syria of foreign-backed militants, which very much contributed to alleviation of the military aspect of the crisis, one issue that the presents itself in the nation's developments is the future relations between the Kurds and the central government.
The geopolitical dynamics in the region and Syria put the Syrian Kurds in a situation where they have to, sooner than later, choose to settle the differences with Damascus. Although cooperation with the central government may not look the most ideal choice for them but it is the most appropriate choice for them to mitigate the security threats, improve the economic conditions, and at least gain part of their legitimate and constitutional demands. Here is a picture of the geopolitical dynamics affecting the Syrian Kurds' status.
Inter-Kurdish fissures and economic woes in northern Syria
A major challenge Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have been facing as the de facto rulers of northern Syria in recent years is the economic problems and political totalitarianism that have severely jeopardized their political legitimacy. Now many Arabs and even the Kurdish population in the areas controlled by this group are taking up arms against them. For example, in late January, following a demonstration in Raqqa province, Madhar Hamad al-As'ad, a spokesman for the Syrian Council of Tribes, said the anti-SDF protests are not new and indicative of the people's opposition to SDF's "illegal actions" against them at all economic, political, and security levels.
Al-As'ad told Al-Arabi Al-Jadid news website that SDF "terrorizes the northerners and imposes mandatory military duty on them. It recruits the underage children forcefully and storms people's houses in towns and villages on a daily basis."
This wave of discontent, which will inevitably fuel ethnic and sectarian strife in the region, has spread to all areas controlled by Democratic Union Party (PYD) , the parent organization of the SDF, as the region's economic situation worsens following a rift between Syrian Kurdish leaders and Iraqi Kurdistan region.
In recent years, the illegal sale and smuggling of oil from the northeastern regions of Syria to Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan has been the main source of income for the SDF, and as a result, they have consolidated their rule over the region. While cut of the income of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) has been a constant concern of the SDF commanders and their backer Washington, in recent months, following the escalation of tensions with Erbil, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) of Iraqi Kurdistan closed its borders with northeastern Syria, halting oil supplies that every month brought tens of millions of dollars in revenues to the autonomous administration, also called Rojava.
The closure of the border crossings began in mid-December 2021, after the KRG announced that Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga forces were wounded in clashes with supporters of the PYD in Fishkhabor-Semalka border gate. The closure forced major cut to SDF oil sales.
Autonomous region of northern Syria is currently facing problems such as food and power shortage due to a biting economic crisis in the country.
The Fishkhabur-Samalka crossing on the Tigris River has been closed several times since 2013 due to differences between Syrian and Iraqi Kurdish groups. PYD militias accuse Erbil of collaborating with their archenemy Turkey. The recent clashes also took place amid protests in which SDF militants demanded from the Iraqi Kurdistan region delivery of the bodies of four of its fighters who were killed in Turkish airstrikes.
Before this, the main difference was over KRG-alleged role of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in inciting popular protests in Iraqi Kurdistan against corruption and economic problems.
Tensions with the Iraqi Kurds have also widened the rift within the main Kurdish political forces in northern Syria, with talks between the PYD and the Erbil-backed Kurdish National Council (ENKS), which had started in the first half of 2020 put on hold since summer 2020 when the Peshmerga forces clashed with the PKK in Iraq's Dohuk.
While US Syria position on decline, central government has a decisive role in the future
Contrary to the growing Kurdish gaps, the regional dynamics are increasingly changing in the favor the Syrian government and boosting its legitimacy, something weakening the Kurdish bargaining power in talks with the key actors of the Syrian developments.
Regional and international efforts to re-establish diplomatic relations with Damascus have made easy to predict the Kurdish ambitious plans in line with Washington's policies in Syria. However, Washington is trying to help start of negotiations between the PYD and the ENKS, as well as de-escalate tensions between Kurdish militias in Syria and Erbil by reopening border crossings and re-injecting petrodollars into SDF's coffers to strengthen their position against Russia, Iran, and the Syrian central government. But, restoring Damascus's international legitimacy has made virtually any separatist project in Syria impossible.
In the midst of this important regional development, the weakening of the US military presence in Syria and the start of the military withdrawal process from Iraq, along with uncertainty over the US administration's strategy for a long-term presence in the region, especially with a sudden military withdrawal from Afghanistan and tangible decrease in the American involvement in the West Asia conflicts, are further weakening the position of the Syrian Kurds against rivals and an ever-present enemy such as Turkey. The escalation of military confrontations with US troops in Syria demonstrates this fact. In 2020, two encounters between Russian forces and US military patrols in northeastern Syria resulted in the wounding of four American soldiers. During 2021, the Syrian-aligned resistance forces fired missiles and drones at least three times at US strategic military positions in Syria, the last of which took place in December 2021.
With the US power rapidly on decline, Moscow tries to consolidate its role as a mediator and guarantor of the status quo, while besides cozying up to Syrian Kurdish leaders. But the brewing reality indicates that Damascus finds itself no longer committed to align with Moscow viewpoints on specific strategic interests and decides in line with its national security interests. In October 2019, when President Vladimir Putin of Russia met the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a staunch opponent to the Syrian government, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in a televised press conference called the Turkish leader the "slave" of the US and a "thief who steals the factories, wheat, and oil in association with ISIS terrorist group." Such stance is apparently meant to snub Putin-Erdogan agreement over Turkish control of the Syrian borderline in the north and northwest. Therefore, Damascus deeming of any Turkish presence in the north an act of foreign occupation serves the Syrian Kurds' interests against threats stemming from long-term Turkish plans for demographic change in the north.
