Alwaght- The sudden suspension of many international flights to Caracas and the simultaneous warning of the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) about the risks of flights over Venezuela have drawn concerns about a potential military and political crisis in the Caribbean. Over the past few months, the tensions between Venezuela and the US have run high. Washington continues to unprecedentedly deploy naval ships and other equipment in the Caribbean and on the other side, the Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has responded to this risky situation with mobilizing the regular armed forces and popular armed groups.
Meanwhile, the US President Donald Trump has recently said that the so-called anti-drugs operations could include foots on the Venezuelan ground. He did not elaborate on the details or timing of the operation. In an address to the military forces during Thanksgiving ceremony, the US president said that drugs trafficking in the water routes in which since earlier September over 20 boats were attacked by the US has dropped 85 percent. Now many ask this question: What scenarios will the US execute against Venezuela?
Military invasion
A US naval armada, deploying 20 percent of its fleet near Venezuela’s coast, is fueling speculation that a military strike against the South American nation is a real possibility. The Caribbean task force, including the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford and the destroyers USS Winston S. Churchill, USS Mahan, and USS Bainbridge, is positioned just miles from Venezuelan shores, presenting a posture that looks unmistakably like a combat operation.
But analysts caution that Venezuela is no Libya or Somalia. “Venezuela is not like those places where Washington has intervened in the past,” historian and political analyst Pedro Benitez told Politico. “Furthermore, the opposition groups in Venezuela lack the support of the poor and working classes.”
The pressure on Maduro's government is “intense,” according to Benigno Alarcón, a political science professor and director of the Center for Political and Governmental Studies at Andrés Bello Catholic University. Yet, he notes, this pressure has so far failed to force any signs of surrender from Caracas. Instead, Venezuela’s military has responded with its own exercises.
Other factors, including US public opinion and potential international and regional backlash, will ultimately shape the outcome of this standoff. Venezuela has weathered such crises before. In 2019, the US-backed attempt to install interim president Juan Guaidó, recognized by more than 50 countries, ultimately failed, and Guaidó later fled the country.
As international law and diplomacy expert Mariano de Alba told The Washington Post, the US military buildup, while sustainable for some time, cannot continue indefinitely. The Trump administration will eventually be forced to reach a definitive outcome in Venezuela or withdraw its forces from the region.
Domestic US politics is emerging as a critical factor in the Venezuela standoff, according to María Puerta Riera, a researcher with the Association of Latin American Studies. She points to American polls revealing significant public dissatisfaction with Trump’s handling of Venezuela. Trump’s core supporters, who have always prioritized domestic issues over foreign entanglements and overseas conflicts, are now turning critical. They argue the president is focusing more on foreign affairs than on problems at home. In fact, within his key “Make America Great Again” base, there is little appetite or justification to support Trump in a new war, particularly one against Venezuela.
Moises Naim, a Venezuela author university professor has told the Guardian that the US invasion of Venezuela looks unlikely. He added: “I see precious and targeted attacks specific aims in Venezuela more likely and it seems that talks for Maduro to step down are going ahead simultaneously.
The Latin American countries are not aligned with a US military intervention in Venezuela, with Colombian and Brazilian being top to oppose the military action idea.
Negotiations for surrender
In his characteristic ambiguous style, Trump has hinted at a potential resumption of negotiations with Maduro. Some American sources even report a direct phone call between Trump and Maduro in recent days. The critical unknown remains: what was Maduro's response to Trump's demand for him to step down?
So far, the Venezuelan president has unequivocally emphasized resistance against American aggression. In a recent speech, he pointedly appeared in a military uniform, signaling his readiness to confront the US. As previously demonstrated during the Western pressure campaign of 2019, which failed to force his surrender, there are currently no indications that Maduro is prepared to step down now.
Carmen Beatriz Fernández, a Spanish political scientist, reiterated a point made by several analysts in a conversation with Politico: "Maduro is willing to talk, but he is not prepared to give any concessions. He is willing to speak, but not to negotiate or surrender."
Moises Naim argues that every round of negotiations with Maduro over the past decade has had one clear, final outcome: strengthening Maduro. According to this political analyst, these dialogue sessions have served to buy time and consolidate his power without him having to reach a substantive agreement.
Some even suggest that negotiating for Maduro's surrender could backfire, potentially leading Trump to be the one who blinks first. Mariano de Alba, the international law and diplomacy expert, notes that if Maduro can offer the concessions Trump wants, such as expelling certain individuals, cooperating on anti-drug operations, and granting preferential access to Venezuela's natural resources and oil, the White House might just strike a deal. Such an agreement would allow Maduro's government to remain in power.
Maduro elimination?
Some American political experts have counted on elimination of Maduro, saying that if he disappears, the hope of his supporters will be shattered and a vacuum will ensue, causing a great chaos in the country.
The type of instability hinges entirely on the Venezuelan armed forces. Should the military back a move away from Maduro, the process could be stable; without its support, the nation risks plunging into even deeper instability. Thus far, there are no signs that the military is supporting a coup or any action to remove or overthrow him.
Furthermore, Venezuela’s worsening economic crisis has made military commanders increasingly dependent on government aid, making a rupture between the armed forces and the state unlikely.
Even at the height of previous crises, the army refused to stage a coup against Maduro. A recent report has revealed a previous, failed attempt by Washington to orchestrate a coup in Venezuela by recruiting Maduro’s own pilot. According to the report, US operatives spent months trying to persuade the personal pilot of President Maduro to betray him. According to the plan, the pilot was directed to divert the flight to a point where the US forces could arrest Maduro. This secret 16-month plan which failed at the end of the road disclosed the extent of the futile long-term efforts by Washington topple Maduro.
