The trip by the Indian Foreign Minister to Tehran, amidst heightened tensions in the Red Sea, is seen as a diplomatic mission with a security aspect. Experts suggest it conveys a message from Western powers aimed at mitigating regional conflicts and ensuring maritime security.
ALWAGHT- After senior officials from regional countries visited Tehran, it was India's turn to strengthen cooperation with the Islamic Republic. In this regard, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, the Indian Foreign Minister, arrived in Tehran on a two-day trip for discussions with Iranian authorities. The Indian government stated that Jaishankar would meet with his Iranian counterpart, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, for talks on bilateral, regional, and global issues. The Indian Foreign Minister is also scheduled to meet with Seyyed Ebrahim Raisi, the President of Iran, during this visit.
Although Indian sources had earlier indicated that his visit to Tehran was prearranged, it appears that Jaishankar's visit took place unexpectedly, considering recent developments in the Middle East region.
Bilateral Economic Collaborations
The transformations and geopolitical shifts of the past two years have prompted leading economic powers to gravitate towards regional collaborations. Rising powers in the East, positioning themselves for a superpower role in the emerging global order, view Iran's role as a strategic launchpad. They aim to bolster ties with Tehran, and amid this, the 13th government's 'Look East' strategy has become appealing to Asian nations. The recent development in Iran-India relations suggests that New Delhi is actively seeking to strengthen its ties with the Islamic Republic across various domains. According to some Indian media reports, fostering economic cooperation between Tehran and New Delhi is among the goals of this diplomatic visit. The trade between Iran and India has faced notable challenges since the U.S. exit from the JCPOA in May 2018. Nevertheless, there is optimism in Indian media about a potential improvement in conditions. Before U.S. sanctions, India held the position of being the second-largest purchaser of Iranian oil, with total imports from Iran valued at $13.52 billion and exports reaching $3.51 billion in the fiscal year 2018-2019. Despite interruptions in oil trade, a resumption of oil transactions could lead to an anticipated growth in bilateral trade between the two nations.
Over the last decade, India has aimed to utilize Iranian rail routes for access to Central Asian markets. To achieve this objective, India has made investments in the Chabahar port to accelerate trade with Iran and the Central Asian republics.
In 2015, India and Iran agreed on the Chabahar port's development and the construction of a railway linking India and Afghanistan. During Prime Minister Narendra Modi's 2016 Iran visit, a $500 million investment deal for Chabahar's expansion was signed. Previously, India's Foreign Minister suggested integrating Chabahar into the North-South international corridor, ensuring secure access for Central Asian nations to the sea. He also supported a joint working group initiative, involving India, Iran, Afghanistan, and Uzbekistan, for collaborative use of the Chabahar port.
The Indian Foreign Minister had earlier mentioned, "Utilizing the Chabahar port, India will not only establish connections with Central Asian regions but also has the prospect of extending access to Russia. Building transportation routes through northern Iran is now vital for diplomatic and economic relations."
While Indians have been somewhat cautious about expanding trade through the Chabahar port due to U.S. sanctions, Delhi's investment in this strategic port will not only contribute to economic growth in Iran but will also expedite regional trade with Central Asian countries.
Despite facing certain external constraints, there is an expansion of bilateral interactions, and trade development with India has gained momentum during the 13th government. In June, the head of Iran's Trade Development Organization highlighted that bilateral trade between Tehran and Delhi had reached $5 billion in 2022. He pointed out that import tariffs on certain products to India are zero for specific countries, allowing them to purchase Iranian products and export them to India under their own names. Stressing the significance of India as a priority in establishing trade relations, he mentioned that the Trade Development Organization's strategy for enhancing ties with this country involves increasing the export of commodity groups and focusing on exporting technical and engineering services.
The Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry reported in September of the previous year that the trade between the two nations with Iran in the first half of 2023 reached approximately one billion dollars. It indicated, "Iran's exports to India experienced a five percent growth during this period."
In this context, Hadi Talebian-Moghadam, the Director General of the Indian Subcontinent Trade Development Organization, previously stated, "There is an anticipation that the trade volume between Iran and India will experience an 18 to 20 percent increase by the end of 2023, and continuing this trajectory, it is projected to surpass 7 billion dollars by the end of 2024." Talebian Moghadam highlighted, "This is noteworthy considering that in the first five months of this year, our country's exports to India amounted to 845 million dollars, with imports totaling 813 million dollars, reflecting a positive trade balance exceeding 30 million dollars."
Apart from bilateral trade partnerships, India and Iran have made significant strides in expanding trade with select regional nations. In May of this year, during a trilateral meeting with Iranian and Armenian officials, Indian authorities reached an agreement to construct a rail corridor stretching from the Indian Ocean to the Black Sea, aiming to strengthen their prospective trade routes. India, recognized as one of the emerging economies, is actively working to surpass its Chinese counterpart by establishing rail corridors with neighboring countries, fortifying trade connections with various regions, including Europe.
Cooperation between Tehran and New Delhi in economic, political, and security spheres is not a recent development. The two sides, driven by shared interests, are considered strategic partners in various regional issues. The membership of both India and Iran in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization also significantly influences the development of their bilateral and multilateral economic relations. Within this organization's framework, they can bolster their ties and exert a substantial impact on the progression of regional trade relationships. Additionally, being members of the BRICS group, both nations have taken significant strides in developing relations among its members. Given their pivotal positions in the global energy and economic sectors, India and Iran can wield considerable influence within this economic group.
The security landscape in Afghanistan remains a mutual area of concern for both nations. In the last two years, they have engaged in multiple meetings with the objective of re-establishing stability and security in the neighboring country. Their focus on regional collaboration is intended to counteract terrorist threats originating from the Afghanistan region. The ongoing presence of terrorist threats and instability in Afghanistan poses substantial challenges to trade and security in the region. This situation represents a significant risk for India, which is actively working to elevate its international standing, considering the persistent instability and terrorist threats in Afghanistan.
Conveys Western Message for Easing Tensions in the Red Sea
The visit by the Indian Foreign Minister to Tehran goes beyond strengthening economic collaboration; it is also connected to the tensions in the Red Sea, which pose a threat to maritime security in the region. Given New Delhi's significant dependence on Red Sea maritime trade and its reliance on the Suez Canal for connections to Africa and Europe, it is more adversely affected by security concerns in the Red Sea than other players. Consequently, India aims, with Tehran's support, to establish stability and security in the region, ensuring the safety of its vessels in this maritime zone.
Hassan Hani Zadeh, an expert in international affairs, shared insights during a discussion with ALWAGHT regarding the objectives of the Indian Foreign Minister's visit to Tehran. He mentioned, "Given the conditions in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, it appears that the Indian Foreign Minister is conveying a message from the United States and the United Kingdom to Iran. This strategically vital region acts as a bridge connecting several continents and holds a central role in global trade. Consequently, the Red Sea, the Arabian Sea, and the Indian Ocean are critically significant for both East and West Asian nations, along with Western countries, concerning navigation, trade, and energy. Recent events in Yemen, as part of Ansarallah's operations to establish deterrence and aid the people of Gaza, are natural developments that could alter the regional landscape."
Hani Zadeh mentioned that the misguided actions by the United States and the United Kingdom in the Yemen attack have further complicated the developments in the Red Sea. He pointed out, "If this unsafe situation persists, shipping in the Red Sea will encounter significant challenges and crises. Consequently, there are certain concerns, and the United States and the United Kingdom have acknowledged their mistakes. They have requested India to mediate and create conditions for Iran to utilize its influence in reducing tensions in the region. Therefore, this visit is crucial, and the discussions between Indian and Iranian officials will primarily focus on regional issues, the Gaza crisis, and the Red Sea."
Hani Zadeh emphasized the significant roles played by both Iran and India in fostering stability and security in the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean. He asserted, "Iran maintains a well-defined stance on the Gaza crisis, advocating for the cessation of the Palestinian massacre, the withdrawal of the Zionist regime from the region, the repatriation of residents to their homes, and preventing adventurous actions by the United States and Israel in the area. If these measures are implemented, it would lead to the ending of Gaza bombings and the establishment of a ceasefire, offering a promising resolution to many regional issues. However, the existence of such an approach is currently uncertain. Additionally, India aims to broaden its ties with regional nations, and its stance on the Palestinian conflict lacks transparency. While supporting the Zionist regime on one hand, it anticipates regional stability on the other, resulting in a conflicting policy. India should actively contribute to resolving regional conflicts, and fostering relations with the Zionist regime may not enhance New Delhi's standing in the region."
